Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TWENTY-ONE-E-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 190356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.11.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 106.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.11.2019 0 12.8N 106.1W 1007 17
1200UTC 19.11.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 20.8N 59.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.11.2019 24 21.3N 60.3W 1009 34
1200UTC 20.11.2019 36 22.5N 61.4W 1007 35
0000UTC 21.11.2019 48 23.9N 60.8W 1001 41
1200UTC 21.11.2019 60 26.3N 58.9W 990 56
0000UTC 22.11.2019 72 31.1N 53.8W 973 87
1200UTC 22.11.2019 84 39.1N 46.5W 986 58
0000UTC 23.11.2019 96 48.0N 40.1W 973 50
1200UTC 23.11.2019 108 52.1N 43.2W 971 51
0000UTC 24.11.2019 120 51.9N 48.6W 985 35
1200UTC 24.11.2019 132 52.0N 54.8W 989 31
0000UTC 25.11.2019 144 52.4N 58.8W 996 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190356

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 190356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.11.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 106.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.11.2019 12.8N 106.1W WEAK
12UTC 19.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 20.8N 59.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.11.2019 21.3N 60.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.11.2019 22.5N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.11.2019 23.9N 60.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.11.2019 26.3N 58.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.11.2019 31.1N 53.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 22.11.2019 39.1N 46.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 23.11.2019 48.0N 40.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.11.2019 52.1N 43.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.11.2019 51.9N 48.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 24.11.2019 52.0N 54.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.11.2019 52.4N 58.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190356

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 182053
TCDEP1

Remnants Of Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
200 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2019

A recent ASCAT-A scatterometer overpass indicates that the
depression no longer has a well-defined center and has degenerated
into a surface trough. In addition, the maximum winds near the
the trough are only about 20 kt, with a few possibly rain
contaminated 25-kt vectors found in convection well to the northeast
of the system. The trough is expected to move west at about 6 kt
for the next several days, steered by the low-level trade winds.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 12.4N 106.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 182052
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
200 PM MST MON NOV 18 2019

...DEPRESSION OPENS INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 106.1W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF TWENTY-ONE-E WERE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH (35 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 182052
TCMEP1

REMNANTS OF TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
2100 UTC MON NOV 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 106.1W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 106.1W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 106.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 181445 CCA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
900 AM CST MON NOV 18 2019

CORRECTED TO REMOVE LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 48 HOURS

THE DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED THIS MORNING NEAR THE ESTIMATED
LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, AND THIS INCREASE IS MOST LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT WINDS OF 25 KNOTS, WHICH WILL
BE THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO, AND THE LATEST FORECAST IS A JUST
CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS SUCH A
WEAK TANGENTIAL WIND FIELD, HOWEVER, IT COULD OPEN INTO A TROUGH AT
ANY TIME.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN INFRARED IMAGERY THIS
MORNING, AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
280/5 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE CYCLONE'S NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER IT
SLOWLY TO THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 12.3N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 12.4N 106.3W 20 KT 25 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 12.5N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER LATTO/MELLO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 181443 CCA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019

CORRECTED TO REMOVE EXTRA DISSIPATION POINT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.5N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 105.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/MELLO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 181435
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
900 AM CST MON NOV 18 2019

THE DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED THIS MORNING NEAR THE ESTIMATED
LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, AND THIS INCREASE IS MOST LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT WINDS OF 25 KNOTS, WHICH WILL
BE THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO, AND THE LATEST FORECAST IS A JUST
CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS SUCH A
WEAK TANGENTIAL WIND FIELD, HOWEVER, IT COULD OPEN INTO A TROUGH AT
ANY TIME.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN INFRARED IMAGERY THIS
MORNING, AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
280/5 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE CYCLONE'S NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER IT
SLOWLY TO THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 12.3N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 12.4N 106.3W 20 KT 25 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 12.5N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z 12.5N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER LATTO/MELLO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 181433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
900 AM CST MON NOV 18 2019

...WEAK DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 105.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H),
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
TUESDAY AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/MELLO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 181432
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.5N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.5N 109.6W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 105.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 180833
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Organized deep convection had been sparse for a few hours, but some
cold cloud tops have recently developed near the estimated center
location. Infrared imagery shows a much larger area of deep
convection farther to the north and northeast, but this feature
lacks curvature and doesn't seem to be directly associated with the
depression's circulation. A partial ASCAT-A pass around 0315Z showed
only 15-20 kt winds to the east of the center, but the initial
intensity is being held, perhaps generously, at 25 kt since the
entire circulation was not sampled. The NHC forecast shows the
system becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, and while the global
models show the circulation dissipating by 72 h, it wouldn't be
surprising if this happened much sooner.

The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery, but
based on the earlier scatterometer data and the latest satellite
fixes, the initial motion estimate is 305/06. The system should be
steered generally westward from now until dissipation by a weak
low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast lies near the
north edge of the guidance envelope close to HCCA and the GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 12.2N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 12.3N 105.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 12.4N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0600Z 12.5N 108.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 180831
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
300 AM CST MON NOV 18 2019

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 105.0W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11
KM/H). A WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT BY EARLY TUESDAY AND
DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 180831
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 105.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 105.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.3N 105.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.4N 106.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.5N 108.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 105.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 180235 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
900 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2019

THE DEPRESSION IS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AND PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY ON ITS NORTH
SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED
ON T1.5/25 KT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MODEST AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION ON MONDAY BEFORE IT MOVES
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE NHC
FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS, BUT
IT COULD REACH THIS STATUS SOONER GIVEN HOW WEAK THE SYSTEM IS. ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH BY
DAY 3, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH OF WHAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING. A LONG-TERM MOTION OF
THE SYSTEM IS 300/9 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STEER IT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A
SLOWER PACE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MOSTLY
DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BEING FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 11.9N 104.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 12.1N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 12.3N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 180235
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

The depression is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone.
Satellite images indicate that the depression still has a closed
circulation and patches of deep convection mainly on its north
side. The initial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory based
on T1.5/25 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The GFS
and ECMWF models suggest that the depression could continue to
produce a modest amount of deep convection on Monday before it moves
into an environment of increasing southwesterly wind shear. The NHC
forecast shows the cyclone becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, but
it could reach this status sooner given how weak the system is. All
of the global models shows the cyclone degenerating into a trough by
day 3, and the NHC forecast follows that scenario.

The center of the depression appears to have reformed a little to
the north of what we have been tracking. A long-term motion of
the system is 300/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge situated to the
northeast of the depression should steer it west-northwestward at a
slower pace until it dissipates in a few days. The NHC track
forecast has been adjusted to the north of the previous one mostly
due to the initial position being farther north than expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 11.9N 104.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 12.1N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 12.3N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 12.8N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 180234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
900 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2019

...DEPRESSION BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 104.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.6
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
(17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 180234
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
0300 UTC MON NOV 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 104.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 104.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 104.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.1N 105.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.3N 106.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.8N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 172031 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
300 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2019

THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND IS BARELY HOLDING ON AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. A LATE ARRIVING ASCAT-C OVERPASS INDICATES THAT
THE CIRCULATION IS NOT AS WELL-DEFINED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN
ADDITION, CONVECTION THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING NEAR
THE CENTER IS NOW WEAKENING, WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WELL TO ITS NORTH. THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT
25 KT, SINCE THE SCATTEROMETER SAMPLED MAXIMUM WINDS OF A LITTLE
MORE THAN 20 KT.

ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY WEAKENS THE DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR, A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ITS PATH.
THIS IS POSSIBLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE, AND MAY NEVER BREAK
OUT OF THIS ZONE BEFORE IT OPENS INTO A TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS, IF NOT
SOONER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE
OF 8 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER
THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 11.1N 103.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 11.5N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 11.7N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 172030
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
300 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2019

...DEPRESSION BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 103.9W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.9
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
(15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 172030
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 103.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 103.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 103.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.5N 104.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 11.7N 105.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.9N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.1N 108.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 103.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 172031
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

The depression is poorly organized and is barely holding on as a
tropical cyclone. A late arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicates that
the circulation is not as well-defined as previously thought. In
addition, convection that had developed earlier this morning near
the center is now weakening, with additional convection developing
well to its north. The initial advisory intensity is being held at
25 kt, since the scatterometer sampled maximum winds of a little
more than 20 kt.

All available intensity guidance unanimously weakens the depression
over the next couple of days, despite relatively low shear, a fair
amount of moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures in its path.
This is possibly due to the fact that the depression remains
embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and may never break
out of this zone before it opens into a trough. The official
forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and the depression is
expected to no longer be a tropical cyclone in 36 hours, if not
sooner.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at a little faster pace
of 8 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer
the depression or its remnants generally west-northwestward until
dissipation occurs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 11.1N 103.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 11.5N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 11.7N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 11.9N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 12.1N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 171557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 17.11.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 111.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.11.2019 0 18.5N 111.4W 1005 27
0000UTC 18.11.2019 12 21.0N 110.9W 1005 24
1200UTC 18.11.2019 24 23.8N 112.2W 1006 27
0000UTC 19.11.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.5N 102.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.11.2019 0 10.5N 102.5W 1007 25
0000UTC 18.11.2019 12 11.0N 104.1W 1006 20
1200UTC 18.11.2019 24 11.3N 104.6W 1007 17
0000UTC 19.11.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.3N 75.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.11.2019 0 31.3N 75.0W 995 44
0000UTC 18.11.2019 12 31.7N 72.4W 996 39
1200UTC 18.11.2019 24 37.2N 70.7W 995 34
0000UTC 19.11.2019 36 40.8N 68.9W 992 37
1200UTC 19.11.2019 48 44.7N 65.1W 993 34
0000UTC 20.11.2019 60 48.6N 60.7W 997 34
1200UTC 20.11.2019 72 50.5N 60.3W 1001 25
0000UTC 21.11.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 33.6N 73.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.11.2019 60 34.7N 71.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 20.11.2019 72 39.4N 66.1W 990 60
0000UTC 21.11.2019 84 44.5N 60.2W 988 39
1200UTC 21.11.2019 96 47.2N 59.3W 984 41
0000UTC 22.11.2019 108 47.3N 59.6W 986 40
1200UTC 22.11.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 24.4N 60.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.11.2019 96 24.8N 60.0W 1008 34
0000UTC 22.11.2019 108 25.0N 58.2W 1005 33
1200UTC 22.11.2019 120 24.4N 57.9W 1006 33
0000UTC 23.11.2019 132 24.2N 57.3W 1007 27
1200UTC 23.11.2019 144 24.0N 58.3W 1010 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171557

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 171433 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
900 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2019

CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS, BUT THIS CONVECTION APPEARS RAGGED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. DESPITE THE INABILITY FOR THE DEPRESSION TO MAINTAIN
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF LAST NIGHT, RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY
REMAINS 25 KT, WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY.

DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR, A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION, THE MODEL
GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY EITHER DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OR MAKE IT A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT
THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE, AND MAY NEVER BREAK OUT OF THIS ZONE BEFORE IT
OPENS INTO A TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE, AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. THERE IS
NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION OR ITS
REMNANTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 10.5N 102.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 10.9N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 171433
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

Convection has redeveloped near the center of circulation over the
past several hours, but this convection appears ragged in satellite
imagery. Despite the inability for the depression to maintain
organized deep convection for much of last night, recent microwave
data indicates that the circulation remains well-defined. The latest
subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB suggests the intensity
remains 25 kt, which will be the advisory initial intensity.

Despite relatively low shear, a fair amount of moisture, and warm
sea surface temperatures in the path of the depression, the model
guidance unanimously either dissipate the system or make it a
remnant low within a couple of days. This could be due to the fact
that the depression remains embedded in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, and may never break out of this zone before it
opens into a trough. The official forecast is unchanged from the
previous one and shows no further strengthening. This is in
agreement with the model guidance, and the depression is forecast to
no longer be a tropical cyclone by 36 hours.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt. There is
no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its
remnants west-northwestward until dissipation occurs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 10.5N 102.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 10.9N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 11.2N 104.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 11.4N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 11.7N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 171432
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
900 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2019

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 102.8W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.8
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
(11 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 171432
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 102.8W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 102.8W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 102.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.9N 103.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.2N 104.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.4N 105.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.7N 106.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 102.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 170839 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
300 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2019

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AS INTRUSIONS
OF DRY AIR HAVE CAUSED THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER TO DISSIPATE. NEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED BUT THEY LACK ORGANIZATION. A COUPLE OF
ASCAT PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS LESS DEFINED
THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO, HOWEVER, THE PASSES MISSED THE ESTIMATED
CENTER MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER STILL EXISTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT OVERALL LACK OF
ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 25 KT.

ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE
SYSTEM, CONTINUED INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND STRENGTHENING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THE NHC FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN WIND
SPEED, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE OR BECOME A REMNANT LOW
MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE
DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION
OCCURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 10.0N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 10.3N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 10.6N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 10.9N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 170839
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

The depression remains poorly organized this morning as intrusions
of dry air have caused the area of thunderstorms that was previously
near the estimated center to dissipate. New clusters of convection
have recently developed but they lack organization. A couple of
ASCAT passes suggest that the overall circulation is less defined
than it was 24 hours ago, however, the passes missed the estimated
center making it difficult to determine whether a well-defined
center still exists. Given the current overall lack of
organization, the initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt.

Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low over the
system, continued intrusions of dry air associated with a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event are likely to prevent significant
re-organization of the deep convection, and strengthening is not
anticipated. The NHC forecast again calls for no change in wind
speed, however, the system could dissipate or become a remnant low
much sooner than indicated below.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. There
has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level
ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the
depression or its remnants west-northwestward until dissipation
occurs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 10.0N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 10.3N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 10.6N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 10.9N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 11.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 170839
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
300 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 102.2W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
(13 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
DISSIPATE OR DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 170838
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 102.2W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 102.2W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 101.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 10.3N 103.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.6N 104.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.9N 105.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.2N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 102.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 170359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 17.11.2019

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 111.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.11.2019 0 17.0N 111.8W 1003 27
1200UTC 17.11.2019 12 18.9N 111.1W 1003 29
0000UTC 18.11.2019 24 21.1N 110.6W 1003 27
1200UTC 18.11.2019 36 23.3N 111.6W 1006 28
0000UTC 19.11.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 101.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.11.2019 0 9.6N 101.5W 1006 27
1200UTC 17.11.2019 12 10.2N 102.7W 1006 25
0000UTC 18.11.2019 24 11.1N 103.6W 1005 21
1200UTC 18.11.2019 36 11.7N 104.6W 1006 21
0000UTC 19.11.2019 48 12.0N 105.5W 1006 19
1200UTC 19.11.2019 60 12.6N 106.9W 1007 21
0000UTC 20.11.2019 72 12.5N 109.0W 1007 21
1200UTC 20.11.2019 84 14.7N 108.6W 1007 25
0000UTC 21.11.2019 96 14.2N 109.0W 1007 23
1200UTC 21.11.2019 108 14.8N 109.3W 1008 20
0000UTC 22.11.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.4N 77.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.11.2019 0 30.4N 77.8W 999 47
1200UTC 17.11.2019 12 31.2N 74.3W 997 49
0000UTC 18.11.2019 24 32.6N 73.1W 995 41
1200UTC 18.11.2019 36 36.7N 69.4W 991 38
0000UTC 19.11.2019 48 41.7N 67.5W 986 39
1200UTC 19.11.2019 60 45.8N 65.1W 988 36
0000UTC 20.11.2019 72 49.4N 64.0W 990 36
1200UTC 20.11.2019 84 49.5N 63.0W 999 28
0000UTC 21.11.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 33.9N 71.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.11.2019 72 33.9N 71.6W 1006 27
1200UTC 20.11.2019 84 39.4N 65.9W 990 48
0000UTC 21.11.2019 96 43.0N 61.4W 986 40
1200UTC 21.11.2019 108 46.4N 60.0W 983 37
0000UTC 22.11.2019 120 45.6N 57.0W 987 34
1200UTC 22.11.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 23.6N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.11.2019 84 23.6N 62.6W 1010 33
0000UTC 21.11.2019 96 25.0N 61.4W 1007 34
1200UTC 21.11.2019 108 27.2N 59.0W 1003 41
0000UTC 22.11.2019 120 28.6N 55.1W 996 49
1200UTC 22.11.2019 132 31.2N 50.9W 997 49
0000UTC 23.11.2019 144 34.2N 45.5W 996 50


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170359

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 170359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.11.2019

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 111.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.11.2019 17.0N 111.8W WEAK
12UTC 17.11.2019 18.9N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2019 21.1N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2019 23.3N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 101.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.11.2019 9.6N 101.5W WEAK
12UTC 17.11.2019 10.2N 102.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2019 11.1N 103.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2019 11.7N 104.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2019 12.0N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2019 12.6N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.11.2019 12.5N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.11.2019 14.7N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.11.2019 14.2N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.11.2019 14.8N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.4N 77.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.11.2019 30.4N 77.8W MODERATE
12UTC 17.11.2019 31.2N 74.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2019 32.6N 73.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2019 36.7N 69.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.11.2019 41.7N 67.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.11.2019 45.8N 65.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.11.2019 49.4N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.11.2019 49.5N 63.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 33.9N 71.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.11.2019 33.9N 71.6W WEAK
12UTC 20.11.2019 39.4N 65.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 21.11.2019 43.0N 61.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.11.2019 46.4N 60.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.11.2019 45.6N 57.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 23.6N 62.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.11.2019 23.6N 62.6W WEAK
00UTC 21.11.2019 25.0N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.11.2019 27.2N 59.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.11.2019 28.6N 55.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.11.2019 31.2N 50.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.11.2019 34.2N 45.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170359

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 170231
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
900 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2019

THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK WITH ITS DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO A
SMALL AREA NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND AUTOMATED VALUES FROM
CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.

THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING THE DEPRESSION EITHER
HOLDING ITS STRENGTH OR WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
STRONG, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR, IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH STABLE AIR
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, SHOULD PREVENT THE CYCLONE
FROM INTENSIFYING. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW DISSIPATION
BY DAY 3, FOLLOWING THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF IT DISSIPATED OR BECAME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN
THAT.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 12 KT STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.
A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 9.8N 102.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 10.1N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 10.5N 104.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 10.8N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 11.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 170231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
900 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2019

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 102.4W
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22
KM/H). A SLOWER WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 170230
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 102.4W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 102.4W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.1N 103.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.5N 104.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.8N 105.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 102.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 162032 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
300 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2019

THE DEPRESSION HAS REALLY COME UNGLUED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DRAMATICALLY AND THE LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT REMAINS IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST WITH
NO CLEAR-CUT CENTER. AN ASCAT-B OVERPASS AT 1604 UTC UNFORTUNATELY
DID NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IT TOO SHOWED LITTLE
INDICATION OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND MAX WINDS OF ONLY 25-30 KT.
THOSE WINDS APPEARED TO BE RELATED MORE TO AN ONGOING TEHUANTEPEC
GAP WIND EVENT THAN THE DEPRESSION ITSELF. WHILE THESE EVIDENCE
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE, IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR NOW,
JUST IN CASE THE SYSTEM MAKES A COMEBACK LATER TODAY.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER MEXICO SHOULD KEEP IT OR ITS REMNANTS ON A WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASIDE FROM
ACCOUNTING FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL
POSITION, THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE NHC FORECAST SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY IS THAT IT NO LONGER CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM, AND DISSIPATION IS NOW ANTICIPATED WITHIN 72 H. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S
CURRENT STRUCTURE, IT COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE AT ANY
TIME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 9.5N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 162032
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

The depression has really come unglued over the past 6 hours. Deep
convection has decreased dramatically and the little thunderstorm
activity that remains is not well organized. Visible imagery reveals
that the circulation of the low is elongated from east to west with
no clear-cut center. An ASCAT-B overpass at 1604 UTC unfortunately
did not sample the entire system, however, it too showed little
indication of a well-defined center and max winds of only 25-30 kt.
Those winds appeared to be related more to an ongoing Tehuantepec
gap wind event than the depression itself. While these evidence
would suggest that the system no longer meets the criteria for a
tropical cyclone, it seems prudent to continue advisories for now,
just in case the system makes a comeback later today.

The depression continues to move westward, and a mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico should keep it or its remnants on a westward or
west-northwestward heading for the next few days. Aside from
accounting for a slight westward adjustment of the initial
position, the main change to the NHC forecast since the last
advisory is that it no longer calls for the depression to become a
tropical storm, and dissipation is now anticipated within 72 h. This
is in line with the latest intensity guidance. Given the cyclone's
current structure, it could become a remnant low or dissipate at any
time during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 9.5N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 9.6N 102.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 10.0N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 10.3N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 10.5N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 162031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
300 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NO STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 101.0W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H)
AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 162031
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 101.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 101.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 100.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.6N 102.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 10.0N 104.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.3N 105.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 101.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 161434 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
900 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2019

A PAIR OF RECENT SSMIS OVERPASSES REVEALED THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
CURVATURE IN ITS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THAT SAID, THE SYSTEM IS STILL
PRODUCING PLENTY OF CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH OF ITS
CENTER. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY
HAVE 35 KT WINDS, BUT IT WAS FLAGGED AS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO RAIN
CONTAMINATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB DO NOT
YET SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
REMAINS 30 KT, PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY SO.

IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE
DEPRESSION'S CENTER, EVEN IN FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS CONSEQUENTLY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, BUT IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
HEADING WESTWARD AT A SLOWER SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STRENGTHENING CONSISTING OF LOW SHEAR, WARM SSTS AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE. AND YET, NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CALL FOR THE SYSTEM
TO REACH TROPICAL-STORM-STRENGTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRY AIR COULD
BECOME AN INHIBITING FACTOR IF IT WRAPS INTO THE CYCLONE'S
CIRCULATION, AND THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 161433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
900 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING WEST WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.2N 100.2W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH
(19 KM/H). A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 161434
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

A pair of recent SSMIS overpasses revealed that the depression has
not become any better organized this morning with little evidence of
curvature in its convective bands. That said, the system is still
producing plenty of convection, particularly to the north of its
center. Earlier ASCAT data suggested that the system may already
have 35 kt winds, but it was flagged as questionable due to rain
contamination. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB do not
yet support tropical storm strength and the intensity assessment
remains 30 kt, perhaps conservatively so.

It has been difficult to identify the precise location of the
depression's center, even in first-light visible imagery. The
initial motion is consequently highly uncertain, but it appears that
the system is still moving generally westward at around 10 kt. A
mid-level ridge centered over central Mexico should keep the cyclone
heading westward at a slower speed during the next few days. The
track guidance remains in good agreement and the NHC track forecast
is essentially just an update of the previous advisory.

The depression is located within a seemingly favorable environment
for strengthening consisting of low shear, warm SSTs and sufficient
moisture. And yet, none of the dynamical models call for the system
to reach tropical-storm-strength. Early next week, dry air could
become an inhibiting factor if it wraps into the cyclone's
circulation, and this is forecast to occur by some of the global
models. Some short-term strengthening still seems likely given the
favorable environment so no change was made to the official
intensity forecast, which is above all of the guidance for the first
24 h. It lies between the lower dynamical guidance and higher DSHP
model thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 9.2N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 9.2N 101.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 9.4N 102.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 9.6N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 9.9N 104.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 10.3N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 10.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 161433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 100.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 100.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 99.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.2N 101.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.4N 102.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.6N 103.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 9.9N 104.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 10.3N 107.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 10.5N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.2N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 161146 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
300 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2019

CORRECTED TIME ZONE IN HEADER.

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ASCAT DATA FROM 03-04Z INDICATED
THAT THE CIRCULATION WAS WELL-DEFINED AND THERE WERE BELIEVABLE
30 KT WIND VECTORS. THE ASCAT REVEALED A FEW HIGHER WIND VECTORS,
BUT THEY MAY HAVE BEEN RAIN CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THESE DATA AND
A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED
ON A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS A BIT TRICKY AS SMALL SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS CAN SPIN UP OR
DOWN QUITE QUICKLY. IN THE SHORT-TERM, A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR
FROM A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION TODAY, WHICH COULD CAUSE A
DISRUPTION IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND/OR AN ELONGATION OF THE
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, IF THE SMALL CYCLONE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
MAIN AREA OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS ON THE
LATTER SCENARIO AND CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE INTENSITY IS
MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL, BUT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/10 KT. THE TRACK

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 161146
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Corrected time zone in header.

Deep convection associated with the small low pressure area located
well south of the coast of Mexico has continued to increase and
become better organized overnight. ASCAT data from 03-04Z indicated
that the circulation was well-defined and there were believable
30 kt wind vectors. The ASCAT revealed a few higher wind vectors,
but they may have been rain contaminated. Based on these data and
a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB, advisories are being initiated
on a 30-kt tropical depression. The intensity forecast for this
system is a bit tricky as small systems such as this can spin up or
down quite quickly. In the short-term, a dry and more stable air
from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event could be entrained into
the northern portion of the circulation today, which could cause a
disruption in the deep convection and/or an elongation of the
circulation. However, if the small cyclone remains south of the
main area of Tehuantepec winds, low vertical wind shear conditions
favor some intensification. The NHC intensity forecast leans on the
latter scenario and call for some strengthening during the next 24
hours or so. After that time, increasing southerly shear is
expected to cause weakening, and the system is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The intensity is
more uncertain than normal, but is fairly close to the intensity
consensus aids.

The depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt. The track
forecast is a bit more straightforward as the cyclone should be
steered generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge located
over southern Mexico during the next couple of days. After that
time, the cyclone is forecast to near the southwestern portion of
the ridge and a west-northwestward heading is predicted. The
global models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the
NHC track follows a blend of the various global model predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 9.2N 99.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 9.0N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 8.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 9.0N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 9.4N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 10.1N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 10.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 161146
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
300 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2019

CORRECTED TIME ZONE IN HEADER

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.2N 99.2W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19
KM/H). A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 160849 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
400 AM CDT SAT NOV 16 2019

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ASCAT DATA FROM 03-04Z INDICATED
THAT THE CIRCULATION WAS WELL-DEFINED AND THERE WERE BELIEVABLE
30 KT WIND VECTORS. THE ASCAT REVEALED A FEW HIGHER WIND VECTORS,
BUT THEY MAY HAVE BEEN RAIN CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THESE DATA AND
A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED
ON A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS A BIT TRICKY AS SMALL SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS CAN SPIN UP OR
DOWN QUITE QUICKLY. IN THE SHORT-TERM, A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR
FROM A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION TODAY, WHICH COULD CAUSE A
DISRUPTION IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND/OR AN ELONGATION OF THE
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, IF THE SMALL CYCLONE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
MAIN AREA OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS ON THE
LATTER SCENARIO AND CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE INTENSITY IS
MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL, BUT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/10 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS A BIT MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 160849
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
400 AM CDT Sat Nov 16 2019

Deep convection associated with the small low pressure area located
well south of the coast of Mexico has continued to increase and
become better organized overnight. ASCAT data from 03-04Z indicated
that the circulation was well-defined and there were believable
30 kt wind vectors. The ASCAT revealed a few higher wind vectors,
but they may have been rain contaminated. Based on these data and
a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB, advisories are being initiated
on a 30-kt tropical depression. The intensity forecast for this
system is a bit tricky as small systems such as this can spin up or
down quite quickly. In the short-term, a dry and more stable air
from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event could be entrained into
the northern portion of the circulation today, which could cause a
disruption in the deep convection and/or an elongation of the
circulation. However, if the small cyclone remains south of the
main area of Tehuantepec winds, low vertical wind shear conditions
favor some intensification. The NHC intensity forecast leans on the
latter scenario and call for some strengthening during the next 24
hours or so. After that time, increasing southerly shear is
expected to cause weakening, and the system is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The intensity is
more uncertain than normal, but is fairly close to the intensity
consensus aids.

The depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt. The track
forecast is a bit more straightforward as the cyclone should be
steered generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge located
over southern Mexico during the next couple of days. After that
time, the cyclone is forecast to near the southwestern portion of
the ridge and a west-northwestward heading is predicted. The
global models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the
NHC track follows a blend of the various global model predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 9.2N 99.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 9.0N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 8.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 9.0N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 9.4N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 10.1N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 10.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 160846
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
400 AM CDT SAT NOV 16 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.2N 99.2W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19
KM/H). A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 160846
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 99.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 99.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 98.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.0N 100.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 8.9N 102.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.0N 103.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 9.4N 104.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 10.1N 106.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 10.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.2N 99.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>