Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

11/12 12:24 WTIO31FMEE111216RRA

11/12 12:24 WTIO30FMEE111216RRA

11/12 12:22 WTIO31FMEE111216

11/12 12:22 WTIO30FMEE111216

11/12 08:30 WTXS51PGTW110900RRA

11/12 08:30 WTXS31PGTW110900RRA

11/12 08:25 WTXS51PGTW110900

11/12 08:24 WTXS31PGTW110900

11/12 06:45 WTIO31FMEE110625RRA

11/12 06:45 WTIO30FMEE110625RRA

11/12 06:43 WTIO31FMEE110625

11/12 06:43 WTIO30FMEE110625

11/12 00:03 WTIO31FMEE102355RRA

11/12 00:03 WTIO30FMEE102355RRA

11/12 00:00 WTIO31FMEE102355

11/12 00:00 WTIO30FMEE102355

10/12 21:15 WTXS51PGTW102100RRA

10/12 21:15 WTXS31PGTW102100RRA

10/12 21:08 WTXS31PGTW102100

10/12 21:06 WTXS51PGTW102100

10/12 18:06 WTIO31FMEE101802RRA

10/12 18:05 WTIO30FMEE101802RRA

10/12 18:03 WTIO31FMEE101802

10/12 18:03 WTIO30FMEE101802

10/12 12:16 WTIO31FMEE101206RRA

10/12 12:16 WTIO30FMEE101206RRA

10/12 12:13 WTIO31FMEE101206

10/12 12:13 WTIO30FMEE101206

10/12 07:54 WTXS51PGTW100900RRA

10/12 07:54 WTXS31PGTW100900RRA

10/12 07:45 WTXS51PGTW100900

10/12 07:40 WTXS31PGTW100900

10/12 06:29 WTIO31FMEE100624RRA

10/12 06:29 WTIO30FMEE100624RRA

10/12 06:27 WTIO31FMEE100624

10/12 06:27 WTIO30FMEE100624

10/12 01:28 WTIO31FMEE100110RRA

10/12 01:28 WTIO30FMEE100110RRA

10/12 01:25 WTIO31FMEE100110

10/12 01:25 WTIO30FMEE100110

10/12 00:31 WTIO24FMEE100017

09/12 21:01 WTXS51PGTW092100RRA

09/12 21:01 WTXS31PGTW092100RRA

09/12 20:57 WTXS51PGTW092100

09/12 20:57 WTXS31PGTW092100

09/12 19:18 WTIO31FMEE091830RRA

09/12 19:18 WTIO30FMEE091830RRA

09/12 19:15 WTIO31FMEE091830

09/12 19:15 WTIO30FMEE091830

09/12 18:24 WTIO24FMEE091807

09/12 13:07 WTIO31FMEE091219RRA

09/12 13:07 WTIO30FMEE091219RRA

09/12 13:05 WTIO31FMEE091219

09/12 13:05 WTIO30FMEE091219

09/12 12:14 WTIO24FMEE091209

09/12 08:37 WTXS51PGTW090900RRA

09/12 08:37 WTXS31PGTW090900RRA

09/12 08:23 WTXS51PGTW090900

09/12 08:22 WTXS31PGTW090900

09/12 06:40 WTIO31FMEE090632RRA

09/12 06:40 WTIO30FMEE090632RRA

09/12 06:38 WTIO31FMEE090632

09/12 06:38 WTIO30FMEE090632

09/12 06:14 WTIO22FMEE090610

09/12 00:44 WTIO31FMEE090019RRA

09/12 00:44 WTIO30FMEE090019RRA

09/12 00:41 WTIO31FMEE090019

09/12 00:41 WTIO30FMEE090019

09/12 00:12 WTIO22FMEE090009

08/12 21:08 WTXS51PGTW082100RRA

08/12 21:08 WTXS31PGTW082100RRA

08/12 20:58 WTXS51PGTW082100

08/12 20:54 WTXS31PGTW082100

08/12 18:35 WTIO31FMEE081820RRA

08/12 18:35 WTIO30FMEE081820RRA

08/12 18:32 WTIO31FMEE081820

08/12 18:32 WTIO30FMEE081820

08/12 18:11 WTIO22FMEE081808

08/12 13:25 WTIO31FMEE081226RRA

08/12 13:25 WTIO30FMEE081226RRA

08/12 13:22 WTIO31FMEE081226

08/12 13:22 WTIO30FMEE081226

08/12 12:12 WTIO22FMEE081209

08/12 08:34 WTXS51PGTW080900RRA

08/12 08:34 WTXS31PGTW080900RRA

08/12 08:23 WTXS51PGTW080900

08/12 08:21 WTXS31PGTW080900

08/12 07:03 WTIO31FMEE080633RRA

08/12 07:03 WTIO30FMEE080633RRA

08/12 07:01 WTIO31FMEE080633

08/12 07:01 WTIO30FMEE080633

08/12 06:23 WTIO22FMEE080619

08/12 01:19 WTIO31FMEE080038RRA

08/12 01:19 WTIO30FMEE080038RRA

08/12 01:17 WTIO31FMEE080038

08/12 01:17 WTIO30FMEE080038

08/12 00:13 WTIO22FMEE080012

07/12 21:15 WTXS51PGTW072100RRA

07/12 21:08 WTXS51PGTW072100

07/12 21:08 WTXS31PGTW072100RRA

07/12 21:06 WTXS31PGTW072100

07/12 19:27 WTIO31FMEE071844RRA

07/12 19:27 WTIO30FMEE071844RRA

07/12 19:25 WTIO31FMEE071844

07/12 19:25 WTIO30FMEE071844

07/12 18:12 WTIO22FMEE071811

07/12 12:47 WTIO31FMEE071230RRA

07/12 12:47 WTIO30FMEE071230RRA

07/12 12:44 WTIO31FMEE071230

07/12 12:44 WTIO30FMEE071230

07/12 12:10 WTIO22FMEE071207

07/12 08:51 WTXS51PGTW070900RRA

07/12 08:47 WTXS51PGTW070900

07/12 08:34 WTXS31PGTW070900RRA

07/12 08:31 WTXS31PGTW070900

07/12 07:20 WTIO31FMEE070623RRA

07/12 07:20 WTIO30FMEE070623RRA

07/12 07:17 WTIO31FMEE070623

07/12 07:17 WTIO30FMEE070623

07/12 06:14 WTIO22FMEE070612

07/12 01:07 WTIO31FMEE070036RRA

07/12 01:07 WTIO30FMEE070036RRA

07/12 01:04 WTIO31FMEE070036

07/12 01:04 WTIO30FMEE070036

07/12 00:14 WTIO22FMEE070011

06/12 21:15 WTXS51PGTW062100RRA

06/12 21:15 WTXS31PGTW062100RRA

06/12 21:07 WTXS51PGTW062100

06/12 21:01 WTXS31PGTW062100

06/12 19:20 WTIO31FMEE061856RRA

06/12 19:20 WTIO30FMEE061856RRA

06/12 19:17 WTIO31FMEE061856

06/12 19:17 WTIO30FMEE061856

06/12 18:23 WTIO22FMEE061820

06/12 13:22 WTIO31FMEE061235RRA

06/12 13:22 WTIO30FMEE061235RRA

06/12 13:20 WTIO31FMEE061235

06/12 13:20 WTIO30FMEE061235

06/12 12:21 WTIO22FMEE061216

06/12 09:16 WTXS51PGTW060900RRA

06/12 09:16 WTXS31PGTW060900RRA

06/12 09:02 WTXS51PGTW060900

06/12 09:00 WTXS31PGTW060900

06/12 07:41 WTIO31FMEE060654RRA

06/12 07:41 WTIO30FMEE060654RRA

06/12 07:38 WTIO31FMEE060654

06/12 07:38 WTIO30FMEE060654

06/12 06:24 WTIO22FMEE060622

06/12 01:22 WTIO31FMEE060049RRA

06/12 01:22 WTIO30FMEE060049RRA

06/12 01:19 WTIO31FMEE060049

06/12 01:19 WTIO30FMEE060049

06/12 00:12 WTIO22FMEE060011

05/12 22:06 WTXS51PGTW052100RRA

05/12 22:05 WTXS31PGTW052100RRA

05/12 22:04 WTXS51PGTW052100

05/12 22:03 WTXS31PGTW052100

05/12 18:51 WTIO31FMEE051840RRA

05/12 18:51 WTIO30FMEE051840RRA

05/12 18:48 WTIO31FMEE051840

05/12 18:48 WTIO30FMEE051840

05/12 09:23 WTXS51PGTW050900RRA

05/12 09:23 WTXS31PGTW050900RRA

05/12 09:13 WTXS51PGTW050900

05/12 09:12 WTXS31PGTW050900

05/12 02:08 WTXS51PGTW042100RRA

05/12 02:08 WTXS31PGTW042100RRA

05/12 01:25 WTXS51PGTW042100COR

05/12 01:23 WTXS31PGTW042100COR

05/12 00:35 WTXS31PGTW042100

04/12 21:24 WTXS51PGTW042100

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111216 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.7 S / 45.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1011 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/12/2019 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111216 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 45.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1011 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/12 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111216
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.7 S / 45.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1011 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/12/2019 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
BELNA CONTINUE SON TRAJET AU DESSUS DE MADAGASCAR. LA CIRCULATION EST
DIFFICILE MAINTENANT A DECELER. UN COEUR CHAUD PRECIPITANT EST ENCORE
DISCERNABLE.

LES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES NE LAISSENT PAS SUPPOSER UNE POSSIBLE
RESSORTIE SUR MER. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES DEVRAIT DONC SE
DISSIPER SUR TERRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. LE VORTEX RESIDUEL
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER AU LARGE DE LA COTE
SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR A PARTIR DE JEUDI MAIS LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SERAIENT ALORS PEU PROPICES A UN REDEVELOPPEMENT
PUREMENT TROPICAL AVEC NOTAMMENT LA PRESENCE D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE A L'ANOMALIE CHAUDE DE BASSES COUCHES
DE LA CIRCULATION ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE VONT FAVORISER
UNE ACTIVITA ORAGEUSE ENCORE LOCALEMENT FORTE. LES CUMULS PEUVENT
ATTEINDRE 50 A 100 MM EN 24H SOUS ORAGES. AVEC LA DISPARITION DE LA
CIRCULATION, LES PLUIES LIEES AU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT DIMINUER.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN CONCERNANT BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 45.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1011 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/12 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
BELNA CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY OVER LAND. THE CIRCULATION IS BARELY
PERCEPTIBLE. STILL A WARM PRECIPITATING CORE CAN BE SEEN.

THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS DON'T SUGGEST A POSSIBLE EXIT AT SEA.
THE CIRCULATION OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE DISSIPATE ON LAND OVER
THE NEXT HOURS. THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD MOVE OVER
WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR FROM THURSDAY BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT (STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED).

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY OF THE
RESIDUAL CIRCULATION AND A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
LOCALLY A STRONG THUNDERY ACTIVITY. CUMULATIONS COULD REACH 50 TO 100
MM IN 24 HOURS IN THE ZONE OF INFLUENCE OF CIRCULATION. THIS
AFTERNOON THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AREA OF
MADAGASCAR AND INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE. WITH THE DISAPPEARING OF THE
CIRCULATION, RAINS RELATED TO BELNA SHOULD EASE.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT BELNA=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 110900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191211075714
2019121106 02S BELNA 014 01 180 06 SATL 045
T000 210S 0451E 030
T012 223S 0463E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.3S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 45.4E.
11DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185
NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 110900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.3S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 45.4E.
11DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185
NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE RAPIDLY
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, NOW DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION, HAS TRACKED POLEWARD OVER LAND FOLLOWING THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS AND TURNS EASTWARD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191211075714
2019121106 02S BELNA 014 01 180 06 SATL 045
T000 210S 0451E 030
T012 223S 0463E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.3S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 45.4E.
11DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185
NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 69S 505E 45
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120918 165S 448E 75
0219120918 165S 448E 75
0219120918 165S 448E 75
0219121000 174S 447E 65
0219121000 174S 447E 65
0219121000 174S 447E 65
0219121006 183S 448E 60
0219121006 183S 448E 60
0219121012 193S 448E 55
0219121012 193S 448E 55
0219121018 198S 450E 45
0219121100 204S 451E 35
0219121106 210S 451E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.3S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 45.4E.
11DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185
NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE RAPIDLY
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, NOW DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION, HAS TRACKED POLEWARD OVER LAND FOLLOWING THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS AND TURNS EASTWARD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110625 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2 S / 45.2 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1011 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110625 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 45.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1011 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/11 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110625
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2 S / 45.2 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1011 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
BELNA CONTINUE SON TRAJET AU DESSUS DE MADAGASCAR ET A COMMENCE A
S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST. ETANT DONNE LE PEU D'OBSERVATION
DISPONIBLE, L'INTENSITE EST PRINCIPALEMENT BASE SUR LES DERNIERES
ANALYSES DES MODELES NUMERIQUES.

LES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES NE LAISSENT PAS SUPPOSER UNE POSSIBLE
RESSORTIE SUR MER. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES DEVRAIT DONC SE
DISSIPER SUR TERRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. LE VORTEX RESIDUEL
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER AU LARGE DE LA COTE
SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR A PARTIR DE JEUDI MAIS LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SERAIENT ALORS PEU PROPICES A UN REDEVELOPPEMENT
PUREMENT TROPICAL AVEC NOTAMMENT LA PRESENCE D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE A L'ANOMALIE CHAUDE DE BASSES COUHES
DE LA CIRCULATION ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE VONT FAVORISER
UNE ACTIVITA ORAGEUSE ENCORE LOCALEMENT FORTE. LES CUMULS PEUVENT
ATTEINDRE 50 A 100 MM EN 24H SOUS ORAGES. AVEC LA DISPARITION DE LA
CIRCULATION, LES PLUIES LIEES AU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT DIMINUER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 45.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1011 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/11 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
BELNA CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY OVER LAND AND STARTED TO BEND
SOUTH-EASTWARD. GIVEN THE LACK OF OBSERVATION, INTENSITY IS MOSTLY
BASED ON MODEL ANALYSIS.

THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS DON'T SUGGEST A POSSIBLE EXIT AT SEA.
THE CIRCULATION OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE DISSIPATE ON LAND OVER
THE NEXT HOURS. THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD MOVE OVER
WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR FROM THURSDAY BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT (STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED).

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY OF THE
RESIDUAL CIRCULATION AND A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
LOCALLY A STRONG THUNDERY ACTIVITY. CUMULATIONS COULD REACH 50 TO 100
MM IN 24 HOURS IN THE ZONE OF INFLUENCE OF CIRCULATION. THIS
AFTERNOON THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AREA OF
MADAGASCAR AND INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE. WITH THE DISAPPEARING OF THE
CIRCULATION, RAINS RELATED TO BELNA SHOULD EASE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 102355 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 44.6 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 12/12/2019 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 000 , SE DISSIPANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 102355 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 44.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 000 , OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/12 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DISSIPATING

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 102355
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 44.6 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 12/12/2019 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 000 , SE DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:

BELNA CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE SUR UNE ORIENTATION GLOBALEMENT SUD, LA
LAISSANT SUR TERRE. LES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES NE LAISSENT PAS
SUPPOSER UNE POSSIBLE RESSORTIE SUR MER. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES DEVRAIT DONC SE DISSIPER SUR TERRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24H. LE VORTEX RESIDUEL DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT RESSORTIR EN
MER AU LARGE DE LA COTE SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR A PARTIR DE JEUDI MAIS
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SERAIENT ALORS PEU PROPICES A UN
REDEVELOPPEMENT PUREMENT TROPICAL AVEC NOTAMMENT LA PRESENCE D'UN
FORT CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE A L'ANOMALIE CHAUDE DE BASSES COUHES
DE LA CIRCULATION ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE VONT FAVORISER
UNE ACTIVITA ORAGEUSE FORTE. LES CUMULS PEUVENT ATTEINDRE 100 MM EN
24H SOUS ORAGES. CETTE APRA S-MIDI LES PLUIES GAGNENT LES HAUTS
PLATEAUX DE LA REGION CENTRALE ET IL FAUT ATTENDRE LA NUIT DE
MERCREDI A JEUDI POUR QUE LES PLUIES S'ATTENUENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 102355
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 44.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 000 , OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/12 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

BELNA CONTINUES THIS TRACK ON A GENERALLY SOUTHERN ORIENTATION
LEAVING IT ON LAND. THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS DON'T SUGGEST A
POSSIBLE EXIT AT SEA. THE CIRCULATION OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE
DISSIPATE ON LAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD MOVE OVER WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR FROM THURSDAY BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT (STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR EXPECTED).

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY OF THE
RESIDUAL CIRCULATION AND A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR A
STRONG THUNDERY ACTIVITY. CUMULATIONS SHOULD REACH 100 MM IN 24 HOURS
IN THE ZONE OF INFLUENCE OF CIRCULATION. THIS AFERNOON THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AREA OF MADAGASCAR AND
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE. WE HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NIGHT FROM
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FOR THE RAINS TO EASE.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 102100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191210194650
2019121018 02S BELNA 013 01 150 06 SATL 025
T000 198S 0451E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 211S 0453E 035
T024 227S 0467E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.1S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 45.2E.

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 102100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.1S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 45.2E.
10DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.1S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 45.2E.
10DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT POSITION. A 101352Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KTS BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 02S. TC 02S HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND APPEARS TO HAVE
BEGUN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS; TC 02S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A REGION OF LOW (<5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS IT
CONTINUES ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND INTERACTION. AFTER TAU
12, THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR WHICH IT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 02S MAY EXIT SOUTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR
AND TRACK BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 24, POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL LOW WITHIN THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY JET FLOW.
OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
NEXT WARNING AT 110900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191210194650
2019121018 02S BELNA 013 01 150 06 SATL 025
T000 198S 0451E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 211S 0453E 035
T024 227S 0467E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.1S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 45.2E.
10DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z.//
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 69S 505E 45
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120918 165S 448E 75
0219120918 165S 448E 75
0219120918 165S 448E 75
0219121000 174S 447E 65
0219121000 174S 447E 65
0219121000 174S 447E 65
0219121006 183S 448E 60
0219121006 183S 448E 60
0219121012 193S 448E 55
0219121012 193S 448E 55
0219121018 198S 451E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101802 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 45.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 11/12/2019 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 12/12/2019 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101802 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 45.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/11 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/12 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101802
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 45.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 11/12/2019 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 12/12/2019 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SUR TERRE AUTOUR DE LA CIRCULATION RESIDUELLE
DE BELNA COMMENCE A SE REDUIRE EN LIEN AVEC LE CYCLE DIURNE.

BELNA CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE SUR UNE ORIENTATION GLOBALEMENT SUD, LA
LAISSANT SUR TERRE. LES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES NE LAISSENT PAS
SUPPOSER UNE POSSIBLE RESSORTIE SUR MER. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES DEVRAIT DONC SE DISSIPER SUR TERRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24H. LE VORTEX RESIDUEL DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT RESSORTIR EN
MER AU LARGE DE LA COTE SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR A PARTIR DE JEUDI MAIS
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SERAIENT ALORS PEU PROPICES A UN
REDEVELOPPEMENT PUREMENT TROPICAL AVEC NOTAMMENT LA PRESENCE D'UN
FORT CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE A L'ANOMALIE CHAUDE DE BASSES COUHES
DE LA CIRCULATION ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE VONT FAVORISER
UNE ACTIVITA ORAGEUSE FORTE. LES CUMULS PEUVENT ATTEINDRE 100 MM EN
24H SOUS ORAGES. DEMAIN LES PLUIES GAGNENT LES HAUTS PLATEAUX DE LA
REGION CENTRALE ET IL FAUT ATTENDRE LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI POUR
QUE LES PLUIES S'ATTENUENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101802
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 45.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/11 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/12 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER LAND AROUND THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION HAS
BEGUN TO DECREASE DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE.

BELNA CONTINUES THIS TRACK ON A GENERALLY SOUTHERN ORIENTATION
LEAVING IT ON LAND. THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS DON'T SUGGEST A
POSSIBLE EXIT AT SEA. THE CIRCULATION OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE
DISSIPATE ON LAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD MOVE OVER WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR FROM THURSDAY BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT (STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR EXPECTED).

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY OF THE
RESIDUAL CIRCULATION AND A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR A
STRONG THUNDERY ACTIVITY. CUMULATIONS SHOULD REACH 100 MM IN 24 HOURS
IN THE ZONE OF INFLUENCE OF CIRCULATION. WEDNESDAY THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AREA OF MADAGASCAR AND
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE. WE HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NIGHT FROM
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FOR THE RAINS TO EASE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101206 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 44.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 12/12/2019 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101206 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 44.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/12 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101206
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 44.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 12/12/2019 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE A
BELNA ETAIT BIEN LIMITEE. CELLE-CI A CEPENDANT REPRIS UN PEU DE
VIGUEUR AU COURS DE LA DERNIERE HEURE PRINCIPALEMENT, AU NIVEAU DE LA
ZONE DE RALENTISSEMENT DU FLUX RENTRANT SUR TERRE. LA PRESENCE
PROLONGEE SUR TERRE CONTRIBUE LARGEMENT A L'ATTENUATION DU VORTEX DE
BASSES COUCHES DONT LES VENTS SONT ESTIMES A 25KT. MALGRE UNE
STRUCTURE DE PLUS EN PLUS DEGRADEE, LE VORTEX RESTE TOUTEFOIS ENCORE
LOCALISABLE VERS 19.2S/44.8E A 12UTC.

BELNA CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE SUR UNE ORIENTATION GLOBALEMENT SUD, LA
LAISSANT SUR TERRE. LES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES NE LAISSENT PAS
SUPPOSER UNE POSSIBLE RESSORTIE SUR MER. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES DEVRAIT DONC SE DISSIPER SUR TERRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24H. CERTAINES GUIDANCES SUGGERRENT QUE LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RESSORTIR
EN MER AU LARGE DE LA COTE SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE MAIS LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SERAIENT ALORS PEU
PROPICES A UN REDEVELOPPEMENT PUREMENT TROPICAL AVEC NOTAMMENT LA
PRESENCE D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

BELNA CONSTITUE ENCORE UN DANGER EN TERME DE FORTES PLUIES POUR
MADAGASCAR. DES CUMULS ATTEIGNANT 100 MM EN 24H SONT POSSIBLES DANS
LA ZONE D'INFLUENCE DE LA CIRCULATION NOTAMMENT DANS SON SECTEUR NORD
ET EST. MERCREDI LES PLUIES GAGNENT LES HAUTS PLATEAUX DE LA REGION
CENTRALE ET IL FAUT ATTENDRE LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI POUR QUE LES
PLUIES S'ATTENUENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101206
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 44.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/12 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH BELNA
HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT HAS REGAINED SOME STRENGTH IN THE
LAST HOUR, MAINLY IN THE AREA WHERE THE FLOW SLOWS DOWN ENTERING THE
LAND. THE PROLONGED PRESENCE ON LAND CONTRIBUTES GREATLY TO THE
ATTENUATION OF THE VORTEX OF LOW LEVELS WHOSE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25KT. DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY DEGRADED STRUCTURE, THE LOW LEVELS CAN
STILL BE LOCATED AROUND 19.2S/44.8E TO 12UTC.

BELNA CONTINUES THIS TRACK ON A GENERALLY SOUTHERN ORIENTATION
LEAVING IT ON LAND. THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS DON'T SUGGEST A
POSSIBLE EXIT AT SEA. THE CIRCULATION OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE
DISSIPATE ON LAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME GUIDELINES SUGGESTED
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE OVER WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR AT A LONGER TIME, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT
BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT (STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR EXPECTED).

BELNA IS A DANGER IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAINS FOR MADAGASCAR. CUMULATIONS
REACHING 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ZONE OF INFLUENCE OF
CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY IN ITS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTOR. WEDNESDAY
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AREA OF MADAGASCAR
AND INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE. WE HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NIGHT FROM
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FOR THE RAINS TO EASE.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 100900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191210070210
2019121006 02S BELNA 012 01 175 09 SATL 030
T000 183S 0448E 060 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
045 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 197S 0446E 050 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
035 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 212S 0451E 040
T036 225S 0463E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 44.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 44.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 100900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 44.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 44.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191210070210
2019121006 02S BELNA 012 01 175 09 SATL 030
T000 183S 0448E 060 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 197S 0446E 050 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 212S 0451E 040
T036 225S 0463E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 44.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 44.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.2S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.5S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 44.7E.
10DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349
NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 69S 505E 45
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120918 165S 448E 75
0219120918 165S 448E 75
0219120918 165S 448E 75
0219121000 174S 447E 65
0219121000 174S 447E 65
0219121000 174S 447E 65
0219121006 183S 448E 60
0219121006 183S 448E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 44.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 44.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.2S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.5S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 44.7E.
10DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349
NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 100607Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON THE WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RECURVE
OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS.
TC 02S WILL SKIRT THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITH STORM-FORCE
WINDS NEAR TAU 12 BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE WELL INLAND BY TAU 36.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 48 AND
DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW WITHIN THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100624 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 44.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 11/12/2019 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100624 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 44.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/11 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100624
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 44.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 11/12/2019 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONFIGURATION DE BELNA S'EST BIEN DEGRADEE ET LES SOMMETS SE SONT
BIEN RECHAUFFES. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SE LOCALISE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR
LES CONTREFORTS DU RELIEF ET AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE DE RALENTISSEMENT
DU FLUX RENTRANT SUR TERRE. L'ESTIMATION DES VENTS MAX A L'ABSENCE
D'OBSERVATION EST ASSEZ INCERTAINE. ILS SONT ESTIMES A 35 KT PAR
ACCELERATION DU FLUX DE NORD LE LONG DU RELIEF.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : BELNA
CONTINUE SUR UNE ORIENTATION GLOBALEMENT SUD LA LAISSANT SUR TERRE.
AUCUNE DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES NE LAISSENT SUPPOSER UNE POSSIBLE
RESSORTIE SUR MER. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES DEVRAIT DONC SE
DISSIPER SUR TERRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36H. CERTAINES GUIDANCES
SUGGERRENT QUE LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER AU LARGE DE LA
COTE SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE MAIS LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SERAIENT ALORS PEU PROPICES A UN REDEVELOPPEMENT
PUREMENT TROPICAL AVEC NOTAMMENT LA PRESENCE D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

BELNA CONSTITUE UN DANGER EN TERME DE FORTES PLUIES POUR MADAGASCAR.
DES CUMULS ATTEIGNANT 100 A 150 MM EN 24H SONT POSSIBLES DANS LA ZONE
D'INFLUENCE DE LA CIRCULATION NOTAMMENT DANS SON SECTEUR EST.
MERCREDI SES PLUIES GAGNENT LES HAUTS PLATEAUX DE LA REGION CENTRALE
EN S'INTENSIFIENT UN PEU PLUS. IL FAUT ATTENDRE LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A
JEUDI POUR QUE LES PLUIES S'ATTENUENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100624
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 44.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/11 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
BELNA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AND THE TOP OF CLOUDS HAVE
WARMED UP WELL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LOCATED ON THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE RELIEF AND IN THE AREA WHERE THE FLOW SLOWS DOWN
ENTERING THE LAND. THE ESTIMATION OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE ABSENCE
OF OBSERVATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THEY ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KT BY
ACCELERATION OF THE NORTH FLOW ALONG THE RELIEF.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST: BELNA CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY
SOUTHERN ORIENTATION LEAVING IT ON LAND. NONE OF THE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE SYSTEMS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE EXIT AT SEA. THE CIRCULATION OF
LOW LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE DISSIPATE ON LAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
SOME GUIDELINES SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE OVER WATERS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR AT A LONGER TIME, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT (STRONG
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED).

BELNA IS A DANGER IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAINS FOR MADAGASCAR. CUMULATIONS
REACHING 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ZONE OF
INFLUENCE OF CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY IN ITS EASTERN SECTOR. WEDNESDAY
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AREA OF MADAGASCAR
AND INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE. WE HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NIGHT FROM
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FOR THE RAINS TO EASE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100110 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 44.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100110 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 44.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100110
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/2/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 44.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONFIGURATION DE BELNA CONTINU DE SE DEGRADER ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME
EVOLUE DEPUIS 9H SUR MADAGASCAR. LA GPM DE 2031Z MONTRAIT QUE LE
COEUR INTERNE AVAIT RESISTE JUSQU'A CE MOMENT LA. MAIS DEPUIS LES
SOMMETS SE SONT BIEN RECHAUFFES AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE CENTRALE ET
COMME C'EST SOUVENT LE CAS LORS DES ATTERRISSAGE, DE LA FORTE
CONVECTION SE DEVELOPPE MAINTENANT A LA PERIPHERIE DE LA CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONNAIRE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DANS CE CONTEXTE EST ASSEZ
INCERTAINE. LES VENTS MAX SONT ESTIMES A 45 KT PRES DU CENTRE EN
ATTENUATION RAPIDE.

BELNA A FAIT UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PEU APRES 18Z. SUR CE CAP QUI
DEVRAIT RESTER GLOBALEMENT INCHANGE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12/18H,
LA PROBABLITE D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER EST MOINDRE. SI CELLE-CI N'EST
SUGERRE PAR AUCUNE DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, IL SUFFIRAIT DE PEU
POUR QUE LE SYSTEME RESSORTE EN MER PLUS TARD DANS LA JOURNEE OU CE
SOIR ET PROFITE D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT OCEANIQUE ET ATMOSPHERIQUE
FAVORABLE A UN REDEVELOPPEMENT. CELUI-CI SERAIT TOUTEFOIS LIMITE
PUISQUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT D'ICI 24/30H SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-EST
ET RENTRER SUR TERRE. LE SYSTEME EST ENSUITE TOUJOURS PREVU SE
DISSIPER SUR TERRE. CERTAINES GUIDANCES SUGGERRENT QUE LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER AU LARGE DE LA COTE SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR.
SI CETTE OPTION SE VERIFIAIT, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMNTALES
SERAIENT ALORS MOINS PROPICES A UN REDEVELOPPEMENT PUREMENT TROPICAL
AVEC NOTAMMENT LA PRESENCE D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

BELNA CONSTITUE MAINTENANT UN DANGER EN TERME DE FORTES PLUIES POUR
MADAGASCAR. DES CUMULS ATTEIGNANT 100 A 150 MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT 200
MM SONT POSSIBLES DANS LA ZONE D'INFLUENCE DE LA CIRCULATION
NOTAMMENT DANS SON SECTEUR EST. DEMAIN SES PLUIES GAGNENT LES HAUTS
PLATEAUX DE LA REGION CENTRALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100110
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/2/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 44.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
BELNA'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED
OVERLAND SINCE ABOUT 9 HOURS. GPM PASS AT 2031Z STILL SHOWN AN
INNER-CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. SINCE THAT TIME, CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER AND AS USUAL WITH LAND-FALLING TC'S, THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITIES HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE OUTER CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY, IN THIS CONTEXT, IS UNCERTAIN. IT IS REDUCED
AT 45 KT BASED ON RAPID WEAKENING OVERLAND.

BELNA TURNED SOUTHWARDS SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. ON THIS TRCK, THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE SYSTEM MOVE BACK OVERSEAS IS LOWERED. NONE OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A SMALL
TRACK DEVIATION COULD BRING BACK THE SYSTEM OVER WATERS WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. IF SO, IT WOULD HOWEVER BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AT TAU 24 OR TAU 30, TO TRACK
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TOWARDS CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE BACK OVER WATERS BY ON THURSDAY OFF THE
SOUTH-EASTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR. IF SO, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT (STRONG
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED).

AS BELNA IS MOVING OVERLAND, IT IS NOW A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR
MADAGASCAR. AMOUNTS OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ALONG THE PATH OF THE CIRCULATION (SPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN
SECTOR) WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 200 MM LOCALLY POSSIBLE. TOMORROW
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AREA OF MADAGASCAR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 100017
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/12/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 10/12/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BELNA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 44.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM FROM THE MALAGASY COASTLINES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS 25 KT WITH ROUGH SEAS REACHING LOCALLY 30 KT ALONG
THE COASTLINES OF MADAGASCAR LOCATED BETWEEN 16S AND 19S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/10 AT 12 UTC:
19.3 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/12/11 AT 00 UTC:
20.5 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW OVERLAND. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS MAY RESUME IF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS REDEVELOPS
ALONG COASTAL AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 092100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191209194252
2019120918 02S BELNA 011 01 205 09 SATL 015
T000 165S 0448E 075 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD
040 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 184S 0445E 055 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 197S 0444E 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 210S 0448E 035
T048 220S 0460E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 44.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 092100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 44.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 44.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.4S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191209194252
2019120918 02S BELNA 011 01 205 09 SATL 015
T000 165S 0448E 075 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 184S 0445E 055 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 197S 0444E 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 210S 0448E 035
T048 220S 0460E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 44.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 44.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.4S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.0S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.0S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 44.7E.
09DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 69S 505E 45
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120912 157S 452E 85
0219120918 165S 448E 75
0219120918 165S 448E 75
0219120918 165S 448E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 44.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 44.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.4S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.0S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.0S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 44.7E.
09DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430
NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 125 NM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND
RADIAL OUTFLOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. AROUND 091330Z, TC
02S FORMED A SMALL EYE AND UNDERWENT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL; HOWEVER, BY 091600Z, THE EYE
FILLED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON
TURNING IN THE EIR IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 091523Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KTS BASED ON THE WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. IN THE
NEAR-TERM, TC 02S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COASTLINE AS
IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AT TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
TRACK OVER COASTAL WATERS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-30
CELSIUS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE
STR AXIS AND TURN TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR WILL
CAUSE TC 02S TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NOTABLY, A REMNANT CIRCULATION
MAY TRACK OFF OF MADAGASCAR AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
PRIOR TO TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED TO THE EAST OF
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A WESTERN OUTLIER (UKMET ENSEMBLE).
OVERALL, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MODEL SPREAD OF 97
NM AT TAU 48, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091830 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 44.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 11/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091830 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 44.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/11 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091830
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 44.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 11/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
BELNA A CONNU UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION SPECTACULAIRE A L'APPROCHE
DES COTES MALGACHES. A PARTIR DE 13Z, UN OEIL TRES BIEN DEFINI EST
APPARU SUR L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE ET INFRAROUGE ATTEIGNANT SA MEILLEURE
DEFINITION VERS 14Z JUSTE AVANT D'ABORDER LA COTE. LES MICRO-ONDES DE
LA FIN DE JOURNEE TEMOIGNENT DE LA CONSOLIDATION RAPIDE DU COEUR
CENTRALE. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK BRUTES SONT PONCTUELLEMENT MONTEES A
6.0 MAIS LE DT MOYEN SUR 3H EST QUASIMENT A 5.5 AU MOMENT DU LANDFALL
VERS 1530Z. L'INTENSITE A CE MOMENT LA EST FIXEE, PEUT-ETRE DE FACON
CONSERVATRICE, A 85 KT (PMIN ESTIMEE: 955 HPA) EN BON ACCORD AVEC
L'ESTIMATION SATCON (95 KT EN VENTS 1 MINUTE). DEPUIS LES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX SE SONT RECHAUFFES ET L'OEIL A PERDU EN DEFINITION. L'ALLURE
DU SYSTEME LAISSE A PENSER QUE LE COEUR RESISTE ALORS QU'IL PASSE SUR
DES TERRES SANS RELIEF MARQUE. L'INTENSITE A 18Z EST PAR CONSEQUENT
ABAISSEE A 80 KT.

BELNA A SUIVI UN CAP PLUS SUD-OUEST DEPUIS LA FIN DE JOURNEE ET
DEVRAIT LONGER LA COTE A FAIBLE DISTANCE A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H ... AVEC UNE POSSIBILITE QU'IL RESSORTE TRES
TEMPORAIREMENT EN MER VUE LA PHYSIONOMIE DE LA COTE ET L'INCERTITUDE
DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. SI LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE A
PEU CHANGE, LE DECALAGE VERS L'OUEST DE LA TRAJECTOIRE OBSERVEE SE
REPERCUTE SUR LA PREVISION ET LAISSE A PENSER QUE LE CENTRE DEVRAIT
RESSORTIR EN MER DEMAIN EN JOURNEE ENTRE MOROMBE ET MORONDAVA AVANT
D'ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST ET DE SE RETROUVER DE
NOUVEAU SUR TERRE D'ICI 24/30H AU NIVEAU DE MORONDAVA. UN COMBLEMENT
SUR TERRE EST ENSUITE ENVISAGE.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE LA CIRCULATION DE BELNA VA S'ACCCOMPAGNER DE FORTES
PLUIES NOTAMMENT PRES DU LIEU D'ATTERRISSAGE OU LES CUMULS PEUVENT
DEPASSER LOCALEMENT LES 200 MM. PUIS, LES CONDITIONS DEGRADEES VONT
GAGNER LA REGION CENTRALE OUEST DE MADAGASCAR A PARTIR DE DEMAIN
SOIR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 44.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/11 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
BELNA WENT THROUGH A SPECTACULAR INTENSIFICATION SPELL AS IT NEARED
MADAGASCAR. AROUND 13Z, A RAPIDLY IMPROVING EYE FEATURE APPEARED ON
CLASSICAL IMAGERY WITH ITS BEST DEFINITION AROUND 14Z. MEANWHILE, MW
OF THIS EVENING REVEALED A RAPIDLY BUILDING INNER-CORE. RAW
DT-NUMBERS PEAKED AT 6.0 AT TIMES BUT 3-HOURS AVERAGE IS AT 5.5 BY
THE TIME OF LANDFALL (1530Z). THE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL IS SET AT 85
KT (MSLP: 955 HPA) IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH SATCON (95 KT WITH 1 MINUTE
WINDS) BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SINCE THAT TIME, CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED AND THE EYE IS LESS DISTINCT. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGEST
THAT THE INNER-CORE STILL RESIST AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER LOW
LYING AREAS. THE INTENSITY AT 18Z IS THEREFORE LOWERED AT 80 KT.

BELNA IS TRACKING ON A MORE SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK SINCE THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST AT LOW DISTANCE FROM THE SHORE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. GIVEN THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINES AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER MAY MOVE
BACK TEMPORARILY OVER WATERS DURING THAT TIME. GIVEN THIS WESTWARDS
SHIFT, THE FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED TO THE LEFT ALTHOUGH NOTHING
CHANGED IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER
WATERS TOMORROW BETWEEN MOROMBE AND MORONDAVA BFORE TRACKING
SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL NEAR MORONDVAVA IN ABOUT
24/30H. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERLAND AFTER THAT TIME.

AS BELNA IS MOVING OVERLAND, TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE AWAITED ESPECIALLY
ON THE REGIONS OF THE LANDFALL EXCEEDING 200 MM OVER 24H/36H. THESE
SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD TOWARDS THE WESTERN AREAS OF
MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY EVENING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 091807
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 44.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM FROM THE MALAGASY COASTLINES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS ALONG
COASTAL AREAS NEAR CAPE SAINT-ANDRE
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS UP TO 20 NM OF
COASTAL AREAS AROUND CAPE SAINT-ANDRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/10 AT 06 UTC:
18.4 S / 44.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/12/10 AT 18 UTC:
19.9 S / 44.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR AROUND 1530Z ABOUT 55 KM
EAST OF CAPE SAINT-ANDRE WITH ESTIMATED MAX WINDS AT 85 KT AND A
MINIMAL PRESSURE AT 955 HPA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091219 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 45.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5.CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091219 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 45.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5.CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091219
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 45.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5;CI=4.5

BELNA ATTERRIT PRES DU CAP AMPARAFAKA A PROXIMITE DE SOALALA ENTRE LE
CAP ST-ANDRE ET MAJUNGA AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. EN EFFET, AU
COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME S'EST LEGA REMENT INTENSIFIE
AVEC UN OEIL APPARAISSANT EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE ET UN CDO QUI S'EST
RENFORCA AVEC SOMMETS TOUJOURS TRES FROID. LES CONSEQUENCES DE LA
SURCOTE QUI SONT ESTIMEES ENTRE 1.50M ET 2M DEVRAIENT ETRE ATTENUEES
PAR LES PETITES MAREES DU JOUR.

SUR TERRE, LA CIRCULATION RESIDUELLE DE BELNA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE
DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE RENFORCANT A
L'EST DU SYSTEME. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER
SUR TERRE MAIS IL POURRAIT RE-SORTIR EN MER TEMPORAIREMENT DANS LA
REGION DE MORONDAVA AVANT D'ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST
ET DE SE RETROUVER SUR TERRE OU IL DEVRAIT SE COMBLER.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE LA CIRCULATION RESIDUELLE VA S'ACCCOMPAGNER DE
FORTES PLUIES NOTAMMENT PRES DU LIEU D'ATTERRISSAGE OU LES CUMULS
PEUVENT DEPASSER LOCALEMENT LES 200 MM. PUIS, LES CONDITIONS
DEGRADEES VONT GAGNER LA REGION CENTRALE OUEST DE MADAGASCAR VERS LE
MILIEU DE SEMAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 45.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5;CI=4.5

BELNA IS MAKING LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOALALA BETWEEN ST-ANDRE
CAPE AND MAJUNGA AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT, SINCE THE
LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED WITH A CLOUD FILLED
EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A STRENGTHENING CDO WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS. STORM SURGE IS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 1.5M AND 2M BUT THE
CONSEQUENCES SHOULD BE ATTENUATE BY THE WEAK TIDE OF THIS DAY.

OVER LAND, THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE
STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. ON THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE OVER LAND, BUT
COULD TEMPORALLY RE-EMERGE OVER SEA NEAR MORONDAVA BEFORE CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVOLVE AGAIN OVER LAND WHERE IT SHOULD FILL UP.

DURING THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION, TORRENTIAL RAINS
ARE AWAITED ESPECIALLY ON THE REGIONS OF THE LANDFALL EXCEEDING 200
MM OVER 24H/36H. THESE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD
TOWARDS THE WESTERN AREAS OF MADAGASCAR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 091209
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 45.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/10 AT 00 UTC:
17.2 S / 44.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/12/10 AT 12 UTC:
18.7 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191209074318
2019120906 02S BELNA 010 01 205 10 SATL 020
T000 146S 0456E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD
070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 164S 0450E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD
030 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 183S 0446E 050
T036 200S 0445E 035 R034 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 214S 0451E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 45.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 090900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 45.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 45.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.4S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191209074318
2019120906 02S BELNA 010 01 205 10 SATL 020
T000 146S 0456E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 164S 0450E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 183S 0446E 050
T036 200S 0445E 035 R034 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 214S 0451E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 45.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 45.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.4S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.3S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.0S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.4S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 45.5E.
09DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 69S 505E 45
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120818 130S 463E 85
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120900 137S 460E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
0219120906 146S 456E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 45.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 45.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.4S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.3S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.0S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.4S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 45.5E.
09DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 200 NM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. A 090514Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND WAS USED TO ESTIMATE THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FALLS BETWEEN THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 AND T5.0 (77 AND 90 KTS), RESPECTIVELY. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IS FAVORABLE. TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR BY TAU 12, FOLLOW THE COAST UNTIL TAU 36 AND THEN TURN INLAND AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR WILL CAUSE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NOTABLY, A REMNANT CIRCULATION MAY RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN PRIOR TO TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS, SHADED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON SPREAD AROUND 150 NM AT TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090632 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7 S / 45.6 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5-.CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090632 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 45.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5-.CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090632
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7 S / 45.6 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5-;CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EVOLUE PEU ET RESTE DE TYPE "CENTRE NOYE
DANS LA MASSE" AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI RESTENT TRES FROIDS.
DEPUIS 0300Z, DE PUISSANTES BOUFFEES DE CONVECTION SE PRODUISENT PRES
DU CENTRE CE QUI POURRAIT ANNONCER UNE NOUVELLE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE DU SYSTEME.

BELNA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE RENFORCANT A
L'EST DU SYSTEME. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUIT LE
CONSENSUS IFS/GFS/AROME. AU DELA, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTE VERS LE
SUD-EST ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE LA DORSALE PAR LE SUD-OUEST.

AUJOURD'HUI LUNDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT LAISSER
UNE PETITE FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE PREVU
SUR MADAGASCAR, AVEC LE RELACHEMENT DE LA FAIBLE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE
DE MOYENNE TROPO. CEPENDANT, LA FAIBLE TAILLE DE BELNA LE REND
EXTREMEMENT SENSIBLE AUX CHANGEMENTS DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT, CE QUI LUI
PERMET DES VARIATIONS D'INTENSITE RAPIDES ET PEU EVIDENTES A
ANTICIPER. AU DELA DE LUNDI SOIR, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST TRES
INCERTAINE EN RAISON DU PASSAGE PREVU SUR TERRE. MARDI, UNE RESSORTIE
EN MER RESTE POSSIBLE ENTRE MOROMBE ET MORONDAVA.
A NOTER, LA POSSIBILITE D'UN PASSAGE AU LARGE DU CAP ST ANDRE N'EST
TOUJOURS PAS EXCLUE.

EN SOIREE, UN ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST ENVISAGE
SUR LA COTE NORD-OUEST MALGACHE, PARTICULIEREMENT EXPOSEE AU RISQUE
DE SURCOTE. SUIVANT LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA SURCOTE
MAXIMALE POURRAIT ATTEINDRE 2M A PROXIMITE DU POINT D'IMPACT SUR LA
BASE DE LA PRESENTE PREVISION. DE PLUS, DES PLUIES DILUVIENNES SONT
ATTENDUES DANS LES REGIONS AUTOUR DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE, DEPASSANT
LOCALEMENT LES 200 MM SUR L'EPISODE. LES CONDITIONS DEGRADEES VONT
ENSUITE GAGNER LA REGION CENTRALE OUEST DE MADAGASCAR VERS LE MILIEU
DE SEMAINE AVEC UNE POSSIBLE REGENERATION SI LE SYSTEME REGAGNE LA
MER.

LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE NORD ET OUEST DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE MAHAJUNGA
ET LE CAP SAINT-ANDRE SONT INVITES A FINALISER LES PREPARATIFS ET
CONTINUER DE SURVEILLER ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 45.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5-;CI=4.5-

BELNA'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED IN THE CONFIGURATION OF "EMBEDDED
CENTER", WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. SINCE 0300Z, SOME STRONG BURSTS
OF CONVECTION HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER THAT COULD BE A SIGN OF A
NEW PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE LANDFALL.

BELNA SHOULD KEEP TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS A IFS/GFS/AROME CONSENSUS. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE TRACK SHOULD
CURVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CIRCUMVENT THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

TODAY MONDAY, IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROVIDE A
SHORT WINDOW FOR REINTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE FORECASTED LANDFALL ON
MADAGASCAR, AS THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DISAPPEAR. THE
SMALL SIZE OF BELNA MAKES IT VERY SENSITIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT,
ALLOWING FOR RAPID CHANGES IN INTENSITY THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. FROM MONDAY EVENING AND BEYOND, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL. TUESDAY THE
SYSTEM MAY TRACK BACK OVERSEAS BETWEEN MOROMBE AND MORONDAVA.
ALTHOUGH LESS PROBABLE, A PASSAGE OFF THE COAST OF CAPE ST ANDRE IS
STILL NOT EXCLUDED.

IN THE END OF THIS AFTERNOON, A LANDFALL AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECASTED ON THE NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAN COAST, WHICH IS
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO STORM SURGE. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF
LANDFALL, THE MAX STORM SURGE COULD REACH 2M NEAR THE IMPACT POINT,
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE
AWAITED ON THE REGIONS OF THE LANDFALL, LOCALLY EXCEEDING 200 MM OVER
24H/36H. THESE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD TOWARDS THE
WESTERN AREAS OF MADAGASCAR AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT REGENERATION
COULD OCCUR BY THAT TIME IF THE SYSTEM MOVE BACK OVERSEAS.

INHABITANTS FROM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MALAGASY COASTS BETWEEN
MAHAJUNGA AND CAPE SAINT-ANDRE ARE INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
EVOLUTION OF BELNA AND COMPLETE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 090610
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/12/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/12/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 45.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
12 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/09 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/10 AT 06 UTC:
18.1 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090019 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.6 S / 46.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0.CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090019 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 46.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0.CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090019
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.6 S / 46.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0;CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BELNA EST RESTEE DE TYPE "CENTRE NOYE
DANS LA MASSE" AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI RESTENT TRES FROIDS.
AINSI, LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE EST APPROXIMATIVE, SANS DONNEES
MICRO-ONDES RECENTES. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR UN BLEND
DES DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES. UNE LEGERE
CONTRAINTE DE NORD EN MOYENNE TROPO EST SUGGERE PAR LES CARTES
D'ANALYSES DU CIMSS.

BELNA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE RENFORCANT A
L'EST DU SYSTEME. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUIT LE
CONSENSUS IFS/GFS/AROME. AU DELA, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTE VERS LE
SUD-EST ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE LA DORSALE PAR LE SUD-OUEST.

AUJOURD'HUI LUNDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT LAISSER
UNE PETITE FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE PREVU
SUR MADAGASCAR, AVEC LE RELACHEMENT DE LA FAIBLE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE
DE MOYENNE TROPO. CEPENDANT, LA FAIBLE TAILLE DE BELNA LE REND
EXTREMEMENT SENSIBLE AUX CHANGEMENTS DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT, CE QUI LUI
PERMET DES VARIATIONS D'INTENSITE RAPIDES ET PEU EVIDENTES A
ANTICIPER. AU DELA DE LUNDI SOIR, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST TRES
INCERTAINE EN RAISON DU PASSAGE PREVU SUR TERRE. MARDI, UNE RESSORTIE
EN MER RESTE POSSIBLE ENTRE MOROMBE ET MORONDAVA.
A NOTER, LA POSSIBILITE D'UN PASSAGE AU LARGE DU CAP ST ANDRE N'EST
TOUJOURS PAS EXCLUE.

BELNA S'ELOIGNE ACTUELLEMENT DE MAYOTTE. EN FIN D'APRES-MIDI, UN
ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST ENVISAGE SUR LA COTE
NORD-OUEST MALGACHE, PARTICULIEREMENT EXPOSEE AU RISQUE DE SURCOTE.
SUIVANT LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA SURCOTE MAXIMALE
POURRAIT ATTEINDRE 2M A PROXIMITE DU POINT D'IMPACT SUR LA BASE DE LA
PRESENTE PREVISION. DE PLUS, DES PLUIES DILUVIENNES SONT ATTENDUES
DANS LES REGIONS AUTOUR DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE, DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT
LES 200 MM SUR L'EPISODE. LES CONDITIONS DEGRADEES VONT ENSUITE
GAGNER LA REGION CENTRALE OUEST DE MADAGASCAR VERS LE MILIEU DE
SEMAINE AVEC UNE POSSIBLE REGENERATION SI LE SYSTEME REGAGNE LA MER.

LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE NORD ET OUEST DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE MAHAJUNGA
ET LE CAP SAINT-ANDRE SONT INVITES A FINALISER LES PREPARATIFS ET
CONTINUER DE SURVEILLER ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090019
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 46.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0;CI=4.5-

BELNA'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED IN THE CONFIGURATION OF "EMBEDDED
CENTER", WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THUS, THE ESTIMATED LOCATION OF
THE CENTER IS NOT VERY PRECISE, WITH NO RECENT MW IMAGES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DATA. A LIGHT NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR CONSTRAINT IS
STILL SUGGESTED BY CIMSS'S ANALYSIS MAPS.

BELNA SHOULD KEEP TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS A IFS/GFS/AROME CONSENSUS. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE TRACK SHOULD
CURVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CIRCUMVENT THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

TODAY MONDAY, IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROVIDE A
SHORT WINDOW FOR REINTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE FORECASTED LANDFALL ON
MADAGASCAR, AS THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DISAPPEAR. THE
SMALL SIZE OF BELNA MAKES IT VERY SENSITIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT,
ALLOWING FOR RAPID CHANGES IN INTENSITY THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. FROM MONDAY EVENING AND BEYOND, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL. TUESDAY THE
SYSTEM MAY TRACK BACK OVERSEAS BETWEEN MOROMBE AND MORONDAVA.
ALTHOUGH LESS PROBABLE, A PASSAGE OFF THE COAST OF CAPE ST ANDRE IS
STILL NOT EXCLUDED.

BELNA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING AWAY FROM MAYOTTE. IN THE END OF THIS
AFTERNOON, A LANDFALL AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECASTED
ON THE NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAN COAST, WHICH IS PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO STORM SURGE. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF LANDFALL, THE
MAX STORM SURGE COULD REACH 2M NEAR THE IMPACT POINT, BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE AWAITED ON THE
REGIONS OF THE LANDFALL, LOCALLY EXCEEDING 200 MM OVER 24H/36H. THESE
SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD TOWARDS THE WESTERN AREAS OF
MADAGASCAR AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT REGENERATION COULD OCCUR BY
THAT TIME IF THE SYSTEM MOVE BACK OVERSEAS.

INHABITANTS FROM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MALAGASY COASTS BETWEEN
MAHAJUNGA AND CAPE SAINT-ANDRE ARE INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
EVOLUTION OF BELNA AND COMPLETE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 090009
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/12/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/12/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 46.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
12 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/09 AT 12 UTC:
15.7 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/10 AT 00 UTC:
17.8 S / 45.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 082100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191208194300
2019120818 02S BELNA 009 02 200 05 SATL 050
T000 129S 0463E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD
050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 145S 0459E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD
030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 162S 0454E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD
020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 180S 0451E 045
T048 197S 0451E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 46.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 082100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 46.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 46.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.5S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191208194300
2019120818 02S BELNA 009 02 200 05 SATL 050
T000 129S 0463E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 145S 0459E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 162S 0454E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 180S 0451E 045
T048 197S 0451E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 46.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 46.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.5S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.2S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.0S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 46.2E.
08DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 658
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 69S 505E 45
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120606 80S 488E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120812 124S 465E 85
0219120818 129S 463E 90
0219120818 129S 463E 90
0219120818 129S 463E 90
NNNN
0000006300
520
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03034 444 00077 10053 20066=
0000006300
521
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03604 444 00102 10078 20030=
0000005700
522
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03041 444 01009 11027=
0000006300
523
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03560 444 00099 10053 20000=
0000006300
524
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03901 444 00072 10048 20056=
0000006300
525
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03301 444 00082 10069 20000=
0000006300
526
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03844 444 00105 10056 20044=
0000006300
527
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03214 444 00086 10072 20006=
0000006300
528
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03158 444 00064 10044 20014=
0000006300
529
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03318 444 00089 10071 20004=
0000006300
530
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03088 444 00053 10029 20002=
0000005700
531
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03065 444 01013 11037=
0000006300
532
NCNC01 EGRR 082100
03740 444 00091 10046 20026=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 46.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 46.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.5S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.2S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.0S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 46.2E.
08DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 658
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A POSSIBLE CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS APPARENT IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THIS POSITION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 081805Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES RANGING FROM T4.5-5.0 (77-90 KTS) AND A 081745Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAKE FOR A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24, TC 02S WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AND THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, A WEAKENED REMNANT CIRCULATION MAY EMERGE BACK INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN AROUND TAU 72. BASED ON OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODELS, WITH A SPREAD OF 150 NM AROUND DISSIPATION AT TAU 72 THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. GIVEN THE TRACK OVER LAND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081820 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.1 S / 46.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081820 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 46.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081820
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.1 S / 46.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BELNA S'EST ENCORE UNE FOIS
TEMPORAIREMENT DEGRADEE EN LIEN AVEC UNE PROBABLE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC
A PROXIMITE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME, FAVORISEE PAR UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE
DE SECTEUR NORD EN MOYENNE TROPO. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES
(SSMIS DE 1419Z ET 1315Z) MONTRENT CET AIR SEC DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
EST. L'IMAGE 89GHZ DE LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1537Z MONTRE UN COEUR CENTRAL
TRES CONCENTRE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS
DES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, DONT L'ANALYSE
DVORAK DU CMRS.

BELNA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE RENFORCANT A
L'EST DU SYSTEME. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUIT LE
CONSENSUS IFS/GFS/AROME. AU DELA, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTE VERS LE
SUD-EST ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE LA DORSALE PAR LE SUD-OUEST.

DEMAIN LUNDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES POUR
UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR, TANT COTE OCEANIQUE QU'ATMOSPHERIQUE, AVEC LE RELACHEMENT
DE LA FAIBLE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE PRECITEE. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE
RESTE GLOBALEMENT INCHANGEE. CETTE PREVISION RESTE TOUTEFOIS
INCERTAINE DE PART LA FAIBLE TAILLE DE BELNA QUI LE REND EXTREMEMENT
SENSIBLE AUX CHANGEMENTS DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT. DE PLUS ELLE NE TIENT
PAS COMPTE D'UN EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL QUI
POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR TEMPORAIREMENT BELNA. AU DELA DE LUNDI SOIR, LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST TRES INCERTAINE EN RAISON DU PASSAGE SUR
TERRE. MARDI UNE RESSORTIE EN MER RESTE POSSIBLE ENTRE MOROMBE ET
MORONDAVA.
BIEN QUE MOINS PROBABLE, LA POSSIBILITE D'UN PASSAGE AU LARGE DU CAP
ST ANDRE N'EST CEPENDANT PAS EXCLUE.

BELNA PASSE ACTUELLEMENT A UN PEU PLUS DE 100 KM AU SUD-EST DE
MAYOTTE. EN SECONDE PARTIE DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI, UN ATTERRISSAGE AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EST TOUJOURS ENVISAGE SUR LA COTE
NORD-OUEST MALGACHE, PARTICULIEREMENT EXPOSEE AU RISQUE DE SURCOTE.
SUIVANT LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA SURCOTE MAXIMALE
POURRAIT ATTEINDRE 2M A PROXIMITE DU POINT D'IMPACT SUR LA BASE DE LA
PRESENTE PREVISION. DE PLUS, DES PLUIES DILUVIENNES SONT ATTENDUES
DANS LES REGIONS AUTOUR DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE, DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT
LES 200 MM SUR L'EPISODE. LES CONDITIONS DEGRADEES VONT ENSUITE
GAGNER LA REGION CENTRALE OUEST DE MADAGASCAR VERS LE MILIEU DE
SEMAINE AVEC UNE POSSIBLE REGENERATION SI LE SYSTEME REGAGNE LA MER.

LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE NORD ET OUEST DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE MAHAJUNGA
ET LE CAP SAINT-ANDRE SONT INVITES A FINALISER LES PREPARATIFS ET
CONTINUER DE SURVEILLER ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081820
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 46.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

BELNA'S CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATED ONCE AGAIN, PROBABLY DUE TO THE
INTRUSION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE SYSTEM'S CORE, FAVORED BY A
LIGHT NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR. RECENT MW IMAGES (1419Z AND 1315Z
SSMIS) SHOW THIS DRY AIR WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 1537Z
89GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOW A REMARKABLY CONCENTRATED INNER-CORE. THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A BLEND OF BOTH OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE AVAILABLE ESTIMATES.

BELNA SHOULD KEEP TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE STRENGHTENING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS A IFS/GFS/AROME CONSENSUS. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE TRACK SHOULD
CURVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CIRCUMVENT THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GLOBALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL ITS LIKELY LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DISAPPEAR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOWEVER DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, MAKING IT VERY
SENSITIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT. MOREOVER IT DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
A POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT COULD WEAKEN BELNA. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL. TUESDAY THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK BACK
OVERSEAS BETWEEN MOROMBE AND MORONDAVA.
ALTHOUGH LESS PROBABLE, A PASSAGE OFF THE COAST OF CAPE ST ANDRE IS
NOT EXCLUDED YET.

BELNA IS CURRENTLY PASSING AT MORE THAN 100 KM TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF
MAYOTTE. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, A LANDFALL AT THE STAGE
OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST ON THE NORTH-WESTERN
MADAGASCAN COAST, WHICH IS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THE STORM
SURGE. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF LANDFALL, THE MAX STORM SURGE
COULD REACH 2M NEAR THE IMPACT POINT, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST.
ADDITIONALLY, TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE AWAITED ON THE REGIONS OF THE
LANDFALL, LOCALLY EXCEEDING 200 MM OVER 24H/36H. THESE SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD TOWARDS THE WESTERN AREAS OF MADAGASCAR AND
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT REGENERATION COULD OCCUR BY THAT TIME IF THE
SYSTEM MOVE BACK OVERSEAS.

INHABITANTS FROM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MALAGASY COASTS BETWEEN
MAHAJUNGA AND CAPE SAINT-ANDRE ARE INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
EVOLUTION OF BELNA AND COMPLETE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 081808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 46.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/09 AT 06 UTC:
14.4 S / 45.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/09 AT 18 UTC:
16.7 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081226 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 46.4 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081226 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 46.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081226
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 46.4 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=4.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BELNA MONTRE DES SIGNES
D'INTENSIFICATION DEPUIS CET APRES-MIDI: UN PETIT OEIL EST APPARU
TEMPORAIREMENT EN IMAGE VISIBLE ET LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST DE
PLUS EN PLUS SPECTACULAIRE. LA GPM DE 0956Z MONTRE QU'UN PETIT OEIL
S'EST CONSTITUE AVEC UNE CONTRACTION DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. L'ACTIVITE
ELECTRIQUE S'EST EGALEMENT FORTEMENT RENFORCE DANS LA PARTIE OUEST DU
MUR DE L'OEIL. L'INTENSITE INITIALE EST REHAUSSEE A 75 KT EN ACCORD
AVEC LES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES QUI MONTRENT UNE LEGERE HAUSSE DES
ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE.

BELNA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H SUR LA FACADE EST
D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE RENFORCANT A L'EST DU
SYSTEME. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUIT LE CONSENSUS
IFS/GFS/ARO. AU DELA, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST ALORS
QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE LA DORSALE PAR LE SUD-OUEST.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES POUR UNE REPRISE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR, TANT COTE
OCEANIQUE QU'ATMOSPHERIQUE. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE
GLOBALEMENT INCHANGEE. CETTE PREVISION RESTE TOUTEFOIS INCERTAINE DE
PART LA FAIBLE TAILLE DE BELNA QUI LE REND EXTREMEMENT SENSIBLE A DES
CHANGEMENTS DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT. DE PLUS ELLE NE TIENT PAS COMPTE
D'UN EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL QUI POURRAIT
AFFAIBLIR TEMPORAIREMENT BELNA. AU DELA DE DE LUNDI SOIR, LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST TRES INCERTAINE EN RAISON DU PASSAGE SUR
TERRE. MARDI UNE RESSORTIE EN MER RESTE POSSIBLE ENTRE MOROMBE ET
MORONDAVA.

EN PREMIERE PARTIE DE NUIT PROCHAINE, BELNA DEVRAIT PASSER A ENVIRON
100 KM AU SUD-EST DE MAYOTTE SUIVANT LA PREVISION ACTUELLE. EN
SECONDE PARTIE DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI, UN ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EST ENVISAGE SUR LA COTE NORD-OUEST
MALGACHE, PARTICULIEREMENT EXPOSEE AU RISQUE DE SURCOTE. SUIVANT LA
LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA SURCOTE MAXIMALE POURRAIT
ATTEINDRE 2M A PROXIMITE DU POINT D'IMPACT SUR LA BASE DE LA PRESENTE
PREVISION. DE PLUS, DES PLUIES DILUVIENNES SONT ATTENDUES DANS LES
REGIONS AUTOUR DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE, DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 200
MM SUR L'EPISODE. LE CONDITIONS DEGRADEES VONT ENSUITE GAGNER LA
REGION CENTRALE OUEST DE MADAGASCAR VERS LE MILIEU DE SEMAINE AVEC
UNE POSSIBLE REGENERATION SI LE SYSTEME REGAGNE LA MER.

LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE NORD ET OUEST DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE MAHAJUNGA
ET LE CAP SAINT-ANDRE SONT INVITES A FINALISER LES PREPARATIFS ET
CONTINUER DE SURVEILLER ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 46.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=4.5

BELNA'S CLOUD PATTERN SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON:
A SMALL EYE WAS TEMPORARILY PRESENT ON VIS IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. GPM AT 0956Z REVEAL CONTRACTING
INNER-CORE ASSOCIATED A VERY SMALL SIZE EYE. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE WESTERN EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SLIGHTLY RAISED AT 75 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
AIDS THAT SHOWN A SLIGHT UPGRADE SINCE THIS MORNING.

BELNA SHOULD KEEP TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE MEAN (IFS/GFS/ARO). BEYOND THAT TIME THE TRACK SHOULD
CURVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GLOBALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL ITS LIKELY LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR.THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. THIS CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY
UNCERTAIN HOWEVER DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE, MAKING BELNA VERY SENSITIVE
TO ITS ENVIRONMENT. MOREOVER IT DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT A
POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT COULD WEAKEN BELNA. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL. TUESDAY THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK BACK
OVERSEAS BETWEEN MOROMBE AND MORONDAVA.

LATER TONIGHT, BELNA SHOULD PASS AROUND 100 KM TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF
MAYOTTE, ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING, A LANDFALL AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
STILL FORECAST ON THE NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAN COAST, WHICH IS
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THE STORM SURGE. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF LANDFALL, THE MAX STORM SURGE COULD REACH 2M NEAR THE IMPACT
POINT, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, TORRENTIAL RAINS
ARE AWAITED ON THE REGIONS OF THE LANDFALL, LOCALLY EXCEEDING 200 MM
OVER 24H/36H. DISTURBED WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD AFTER THAT
TOWARDS THE WESTERN AREAS OF MADAGASCAR AND IT IS WORTH NOTING HAT
REGENERATION COULD OCCUR BY THAT TIME IF THE SYSTEM MOVE BACK
OVERSEAS.

INHABITANTS FROM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MALAGASY COASTS BETWEEN
MAHAJUNGA AND CAPE SAINT-ANDRE ARE INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
EVOLUTION OF BELNA AND COMPLETE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 081209
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 46.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/09 AT 00 UTC:
13.8 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/09 AT 12 UTC:
15.7 S / 45.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191208080115
2019120806 02S BELNA 008 02 205 08 SATL 015
T000 120S 0466E 090 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD
050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 132S 0462E 110 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD
040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 146S 0457E 100 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD
030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 163S 0451E 090 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD
050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 181S 0448E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 215S 0451E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 46.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 46.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 46.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.2S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191208080115
2019120806 02S BELNA 008 02 205 08 SATL 015
T000 120S 0466E 090 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 132S 0462E 110 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 146S 0457E 100 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 163S 0451E 090 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 181S 0448E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 215S 0451E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 46.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 46.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.2S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.6S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.3S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.1S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.5S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 46.5E.
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 69S 505E 45
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120712 103S 473E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120718 108S 472E 100
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120800 113S 469E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
0219120806 120S 466E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 46.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 46.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.2S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.6S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.3S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.1S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.5S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 46.5E.
08DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 713
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080633 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.9 S / 46.5 E
(ONZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080633 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 46.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080633
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.9 S / 46.5 E
(ONZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

BELNA A PRESENTE UNE CONFIGURATION EN CDO DEPUIS LES PREMIERES IMAGES
VISIBLES ASSOCIEE A DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS EN INFRA-ROUGE. LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA FIN DE NUIT MONTRENT QU'UN OEIL EN BANDE
TENTE DE SE RECONSTITUER. L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 70 KT SOIT
PROCHE DES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES (SATCON,
ADT).

BELNA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES HEURES, AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ALORS QU'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE APPROCHE AU NIVEAU
DES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST
LEGEREMENT A L'OUEST DU CONSENSUS IFS/GFS/ARO AU COURS DES 24
PREMIERES HEURES DE PREVISION, POUR TENIR COMPTE DE L'EVOLUTION
RECENTE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE OBSERVEE.
LUNDI, UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST ENVISAGE ENTRE MAJUNGA ET
LE CAP SAINT-ANDRE. SA LOCALISATION RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE. PAR LA
SUITE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE FRANCHEMENT AVEC LE PASSAGE SUR TERRE
DU SYSTEME.

UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE NORD A 300 HPA SEMBLE AVOIR CONTRIBUE A
LA BAISSE DE LA CONFIGURATION LA NUIT DERNIERE.CETTE CONTRAINTE,
VISIBLE EN IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU, TEND A S'ESTOMPER. LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT DONC FAVORABLES DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES
POUR UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A SON PROBABLE
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR, TANT COTE OCEANIQUE QU'ATMOSPHERIQUE. IL
DEVRAIT DONC REUSSIR A ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. CETTE PREVISION RESTE TOUTEFOIS INCERTAINE DE PART LA FAIBLE
TAILLE DE BELNA QUI LE REND EXTREMENT SENSIBLE A DES CHANGEMENTS DE
SON ENVIRONMENT. DE PLUS ELLE NE TIENT PAS COMPTE D'UN EVENTUEL CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL QUI POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR
TEMPORAIREMENT BELNA. AU DELA DE DE LUNDI SOIR, LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST TRES INCERTAINE EN RAISON DU PASSAGE SUR TERRE.

EN FIN DE JOURNEE, BELNA DEVRAIT PASSER A ENVIRON 80 KM A L'EST DE
MAYOTTE SUIVANT LA PREVISION ACTUELLE. EN SECONDE PARTIE DE JOURNEE
DE LUNDI, UN ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EST
ENVISAGE SUR LA COTE NORD-OUEST MALGACHE, PARTICULIEREMENT EXPOSEE AU
RISQUE DE SURCOTE. SUIVANT LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA
SURCOTE MAXIMALE POURRAIT ATTEINDRE 2 A 3M A PROXIMITE DU POINT
D'IMPACT. DE PLUS, DES PLUIES DILUVIENNES SONT ATTENDUES DANS LES
REGIONS AUTOUR DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE, DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 300
MM.

LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE NORD ET OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SONT INVITES A
COMMENCER DES PREPARATIFS SIMPLES ET CONTINUER DE SURVEILLER
ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080633
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 46.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

BELNA SHOW A CDO PATTERN ON VIS IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS. MW IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A BUILDING BANDING EYE. THE
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (ADT AND SATCON).

BELNA SHOULD KEEP TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOURS,
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AVAILABLE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE (IFS/GFS/ARO) FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF FORECAST, TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE OBSERVED TRACK.
MONDAY, A LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MAHAJANGA AND
CAPE SAINT-ANDRE. THEN, THE UNCERTAINTY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OVER LAND.

A NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT AT 300 HPA, SEEN ON WV IMAGERY, SEEMS THE BEST
EXPLANATION TO THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. AS THIS
CONSTRAINT SEEMS TO ABATE TODAY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOURS, INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
RESUME SHORTLY AND KEEP ON UNTIL ITS LIKELY LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR.
IT SHOULD SO SUCCEED IN REACHING INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.
THIS CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN HOWEVER DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE, MAKING BELNA VERY SENSITIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT. MOREOVER IT
DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT A POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT
COULD WEAKEN BELNA. FROM MONDAY EVENING, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL.

LATER TODAY, BELNA SHOULD PASS AROUND 80 KM EAST OF MAYOTTE,
ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, A LANDFALL AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL
FORECAST ON THE NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAN COAST, WHICH IS PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO THE STORM SURGE. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF LANDFALL,
THE MAX STORM SURGE COULD REACH 3M NEAR THE IMPACT POINT.
ADDITIONALLY, TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE AWAITED ON THE REGIONS OF THE
LANDFALL, LOCALLY EXCEEDING 300MM.

INHABITANTS FROM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MALAGASY COASTS ARE INVITED
TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF BELNA. THE INHABITANTS OF THE
NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAN COAST SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATION FOR A
POSSIBLE LANDFALL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 080619
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/12/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/12/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 46.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 18 UTC:
13.3 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/09 AT 06 UTC:
15.0 S / 45.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080038 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.5 S / 46.7 E
(ONZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=5.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080038 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 46.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=5.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080038
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.5 S / 46.7 E
(ONZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ASPECT INFRAROUGE DE BELNA S'EST
NETTEMENT DEGRADE. EN L'ABSENCE D'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES, IL EST DIFFICILE
DE SE PRONONCER SUR L'AMPLEUR DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET SA CAUSE.
CERTAINS MODELES NUMERIQUES PLAIDENT POUR LA PRESENCE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD. L'INTENSITE A D'ORS ET DEJA ETE
ABAISSEE EN RAISON DE LA TRES PETITE TAILLE DE BELNA. LES EXTENSIONS
ONT ETE MIS A JOUR AVEC LES DONNEES PRELEMINAIRES DE LA PASSE ASCAT
B.

BELNA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES HEURES, AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ALORS QU'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE APPROCHE AU NIVEAU
DES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LE CONSENSUS SEMBLE MAINTENANT PLUS LARGE
PARMI LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES NUMERIQUES SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE.
LUNDI, UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST ENVISAGE ENTRE MAJUNGA ET
LE CAP SAINT-ANDRE. SA LOCALISATION RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE. PAR LA
SUITE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE FRANCHEMENT AVEC LE PASSAGE SUR TERRE
DU SYSTEME.

MIS A PART LA PRESENCE DE CETTE POSSIBLE CONTRAINTE DE NORD QUI
DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE NUIT, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
RESTENT FAVORABLES DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES JUSQU'A SON PROBABLE
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR, TANT COTE OCEANIQUE QU'ATMOSPHERIQUE. IL
DEVRAIT DONC REUSSIR A ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. CETTE PREVISION RESTE TOUTEFOIS INCERTAINE DE PART LA FAIBLE
TAILLE DE BELNA QUI LE REND EXTREMENT SENSIBLE A DES CHANGEMENTS DE
SON ENVIRONMENT. DE PLUS ELLE NE TIENT PAS COMPTE D'UN EVENTUEL CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL QUI POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR
TEMPORAIREMENT BELNA. AU DELA DE DE LUNDI SOIR, LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST TRES INCERTAINE EN RAISON DU PASSAGE SUR TERRE.

BELNA SE SITUE A 00Z A 70KM ENVRON A L'OUEST DE GLORIEUSES. LA
PRESSION A D'AILLEURS COMENCER A REMONTER CE QUI SUGGERE QUE BELNA
COMMENCE A S'ELOIGNER. IL A ETE RELEVE 1002HPA DE PRESSION MINIMALE
ET DES RAFALES MAXIMALES AUTOUR DE 90KM/H.
EN FIN DE JOURNEE, BELNA DEVRAIT PASSER A ENVIRON 100 KM A L'EST DE
MAYOTTE SUIVANT LA PREVISION ACTUELLE. EN SECONDE PARTIE DE JOURNEE
DE LUNDI, UN ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EST
ENVISAGE SUR LA COTE NORD-OUEST MALGACHE, PARTICULIEREMENT EXPOSEE AU
RISQUE DE SURCOTE. SUIVANT LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA
SURCOTE MAXIMALE POURRAIT ATTEINDRE 2 A 3M A PROXIMITE DU POINT
D'IMPACT. DE PLUS, DES PLUIES DILUVIENNES SONT ATTENDUES DANS LES
REGIONS AUTOUR DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE, DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES
300MM.

LES HABITANTSDE LA COTE NORD ET OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SONT INVITES A
COMMENCER DES PREPARATIFS SIMPLES ET CONTINUER DE SURVEILLER
ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 46.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BELNA INFRARED LOOK DETERIORATED
SIGNIFICANTLY. LACKING MICROWAVE DATA, IT IS HARD TO KNOW THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WEAKENING AND ITS CAUSE. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF THE PRESENCE OF A NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CURRENT INTENSITY WAS ALREADY DOWNGRADED DUE TO
THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF BELNA. WIND RADII WERE UPDATED WITH
PRELIMINARY DAA FROM ASCAT B.

BELNA SHOULD KEEP TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOURS,
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH. THE CONSENSUS
SEEMS STRONGER NOW WITH MOST OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT.
MONDAY, A LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR IS PLANNED BETWEEN MAHAJANGA AND
CAPE SAINT-ANDRE. THEN, THE UNCERTAINTY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OVER LAND.

DESPITE THIS POSSIBLE UPPER CONSTRAINT WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN BY THEN
END OF THE NIGHT, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A
QUICKER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOURS UP ITS LIKELY LANDFALL ON
MADAGASCAR, ON BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC SIDES. IT SHOULD SO
SUCCEED IN REACHING INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THIS CURRENT
FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN HOWEVER DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE, MAKING
BELNA VERY SENSITIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT. MOREOVER IT DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT A POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT COULD WEAKEN
BELNA. FROM MONDAY EVENING, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL.

BELNA IS AT 00Z 70KM WEST OF GLORIEUSES. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE STARTED
TO CLIMB SUGGESTING THAT BELNA IS STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
ISLAND. 1002 HPA WAS THE MINIMUM MSLP MEASURED AND WINDS GUSTS BLOWED
UP TO 90KM/H. LATER TODAY, BELNA SHOULD PASS AROUND 100KM EAST OF
MAYOTTE, ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING, A LANDFALL AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
STILL FORECAST ON THE NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAN COAST, WHICH IS
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THE STORM SURGE. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF LANDFALL, THE MAX STORM SURGE COULD REACH 3M NEAR THE IMPACT
POINT. ADDITIONALLY, TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE AWAITED ON THE REGIONS OF
THE LANDFALL, LOCALLY EXCEEDING 300MM.

INHABITANTS FROM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MALAGASY COASTS ARE INVITED
TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF BELNA. THE INHABITANTS OF THE
NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAN COAST SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATION FOR A
POSSIBLE LANDFALL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 080012
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/12/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/12/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 46.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 12 UTC:
12.9 S / 46.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/09 AT 00 UTC:
14.4 S / 45.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 072100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191207203930
2019120718 02S BELNA 007 02 200 06 SATL 010
T000 109S 0472E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 085 SE QD
070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 122S 0468E 110 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 135S 0463E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD
050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 150S 0458E 095 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD
030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 165S 0452E 065 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 202S 0445E 040 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 230S 0460E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191207203930
2019120718 02S BELNA 007 02 200 06 SATL 010
T000 109S 0472E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 122S 0468E 110 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 135S 0463E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 150S 0458E 095 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 165S 0452E 065 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 202S 0445E 040 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 230S 0460E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.2S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.5S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.0S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.5S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.2S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.0S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 47.1E.
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 69S 505E 45
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120712 103S 474E 100
0219120712 103S 474E 100
0219120712 103S 474E 100
0219120718 109S 472E 100
0219120718 109S 472E 100
0219120718 109S 472E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 072100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.2S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.2S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.5S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.0S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.5S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.2S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.0S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 47.1E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
788 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A PINHOLE
EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071802Z METOP-B ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS PLACE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KTS, HEDGED
BETWEEN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102
KTS), A 071500Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS),
AND A 071617Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 98 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TC 02S IS TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL, INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU
24 AND THEN BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ROUND THE
STR AND OUTFLOW BECOMES LESS ENHANCED. PRIOR TO TAU 48, TC 02S WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN MADAGASCAR AND BEGIN WEAKENING, SLOWLY AT
FIRST AND THEN MORE QUICKLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DISSIPATION
OVER LAND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET SOME
EASTERLY OUTLIERS (GALWEM, UKMET, AND NAVGEM). THE ECMWF SOLUTION
DEPICTS THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER WATER THROUGH TAU 120. IF TC 02S
FOLLOWS A TRACK SIMILAR TO ECMWF, THE STORM COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER
OR WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROXIMITY TO
LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071844 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.9 S / 47.2 E
(DIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071844 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 47.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071844
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.9 S / 47.2 E
(DIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, BELNA A GARDE LA MAJEURE PARTIE DU
TEMPS UN CONFIGURATION EN OEIL AVEC UN ANNEAU TEMPORAIREMENT FROID ET
UN OEIL ASSEZ CHAUD. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES OSCILLENT
ENTRE 5 ET 6. UNE PASSE SMAP DE 1513Z DONNENT UN VENT MAXIMUM DE 74KT
ET LE SATCON SE SITUE PLUTOT AUTOUR DE 97KT (VENT 1 MINUTE).
L'INTENSITE A DONC ETE AUGMENTE A 85KT.

APRES AVOIR PASSE PLUSIEURS HEURES A SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DU SUD,
IL SEMBLERAIT QUE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES, IL AIT REPRIS LE CAP AU
SUD-OUEST. IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST
AU COURS DES 2 PROCHAINS JOURS, AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ALORS QU'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE APPROCHE AU
NIVEAU DES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
EST PRINCIPALEMENT BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS AROME/GFS. IFS MAINTIENT
TOUJOURS UNE TENDANCE PLUS OUEST DEMAIN L'ECARTANT DU CONSENSUS.
LUNDI, UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST ENVISAGE ENTRE MAJUNGA ET
LE CAP SAINT-ANDRE. SA LOCALISATION RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE. PAR LA
SUITE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE FRANCHEMENT AVEC LE PASSAGE SUR TERRE
DU SYSTEME.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES JUSQU'A SON PROBABLE ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR,
TANT COTE OCEANIQUE QU'ATMOSPHERIQUE. IL DEVRAIT DONC EVOLUER BIENTOT
AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. CETTE PREVISION NE TIENT PAS
COMPTE D'UN EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL QUI
POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR TEMPORAIREMENT BELNA. AU DELA DE DE LUNDI SOIR, LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST TRES INCERTAINE EN RAISON DU PASSAGE SUR
TERRE.

BELNA SE SITUE A 18Z A 75KM AU NORD DE GLORIEUSES OU LES CONDITIONS
SONT ENCORE RELATIVEMENT CALME DU FAIT DE LA TRES PETITE TAILLE DU
PHENOMENE. IL DEVRAIT PASSER AU PLUS PROCHE EN FIN DE NUIT. DEMAIN EN
FIN DE JOURNEE IL DEVRAIT PASSER A PLUS DE 100 KM A L'EST DE MAYOTTE
SUIVANT LA PREVISION ACTUELLE. EN SECONDE PARTIE DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI,
UN ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EST ENVISAGE SUR
LA COTE NORD-OUEST MALGACHE, PARTICULIEREMENT EXPOSEE AU RISQUE DE
SURCOTE. SUIVANT LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA SURCOTE
MAXIMALE POURRAIT ATTEINDRE 2 A 3M A PROXIMITE DU POINT D'IMPACT. DE
PLUS, DES PLUIES DILUVIENNES SONT ATTENDUES DANS LES REGIONS AUTOUR
DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE, DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 300MM.

LES HABITANTSDE LA COTE NORD ET OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SONT INVITES A
COMMENCER DES PREPARATIFS SIMPLES ET CONTINUER DE SURVEILLER
ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 47.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BELNA MOSTLY JKEPT AN EYE PATTERN WITH
TEMPORARILY A COLD RING AND A WARM EYE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 6. A SMAP SWATH AT 1513Z GIVES 74KT FOR MAXIMUM
WIND
WHILE SATCON GIVES 97KT (1 MINUTE WIND). INTENSITY WAS THUS UPGRADED
TO 85KT.

AFTER SEVERAL HOURS MOVING SOUTHWARD, IT APPEARS ON THE LAST IMAGES
THAT BELNA RESUMED IT SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK. BELNA SHOULD KEEP
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, WITH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST IS MOSTLY
BASED ON AN AROME/GFS CONSENSUS. IFS IS STILL WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TOMORROW.
MONDAY, A LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR IS PLANNED BETWEEN MAHAJANGA AND
CAPE SAINT-ANDRE. THEN, THE UNCERTAINTY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OVER LAND.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT HOURS UP ITS LIKELY LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR, ON BOTH
OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC SIDES. BELNA SHOULD SOON EACH INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THIS CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT A POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT COULD WEAKEN
BELNA. FROM MONADY EVENING, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL.

BELNA IS AT 18Z 75KM NORTH OF GLORIEUSES WHERE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER
CALM DUE TO THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD COME CLOSER
BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. LATE TOMMOROW, BELNA SHOULD PASS MORE THAN
100KM EAST OF MAYOTTE, ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, A LANDFALL AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST ON THE NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAN
COAST, WHICH IS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THE STORM SURGE. DEPENDING
ON THE LOCATION OF LANDFALL, THE MAX STORM SURGE COULD REACH 3M NEAR
THE IMPACT POINT. ADDITIONALLY, TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE AWAITED ON THE
REGIONS OF THE LANDFALL, LOCALLY EXCEEDING 300MM.

INHABITANTS FROM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MALAGASY COASTS ARE INVITED
TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF BELNA. THE INHABITANTS OF THE
NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAN COAST SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATION FOR A
POSSIBLE LANDFALL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 071811
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 47.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 06 UTC:
12.2 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 18 UTC:
13.5 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071230 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.2 S / 47.5 E
(DIX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
120H: 12/12/2019 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071230 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2 S / 47.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/12/12 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071230
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.2 S / 47.5 E
(DIX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
120H: 12/12/2019 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, DE FORTES POUSSES CONVECTIVES ONT
CONTINUE DE SE DECLENCHER AU SEIN DU MUR DE L'OEIL. LA STRUCTURE EN
OEIL A TEMPORAIREMENT DISPARU ENTRE 09Z ET 11Z EN IR MAIS RESTE BIEN
VISIBLE EN VIS. L'IMAGE 89GHZ DE LA PASSE AMSU-B DE 0610Z SUGGERE LA
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST PROCHE DU COEUR DU
SYSTEME, CE QUI POURRAIT EXPLIQUER QUE LA DEGRADATION TEMPORAIRE DE
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK BRUTES SONT
REPARTIES A LA HAUSSE AU COURS DE LA DERNIERE HEURE. EN L'ATTENTE DE
NOUVELLES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES POUR CONFIRMER LA CONSOLIDATION DE LA
STRUCTURE DE MOYENNE TROPO, L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE ACTUELLE EST
PLUTOT CONSERVATIVE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT MAJEUR DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE. BELNA DEVRAIT SE
DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES 2 PROCHAINS JOURS, AVEC
LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ALORS
QU'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE APPROCHE AU NIVEAU DES LATITUDES TEMPEREES.
LE DERNIER RESEAU DU MODELE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN S'EST RAPPROCHE DU
CONSENSUS. LE SCENARIO ACTUEL EST BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES, DONT AROME.
LUNDI, UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST ENVISAGE DANS LA REGION DE
MAJUNGA. ENSUITE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE FRANCHEMENT A CAUSE DU
PASSAGE SUR TERRE DU SYSTEME.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS RAPIDE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES : UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN AUGMENTATION ET UNE ABSENCE DE CISAILLEMENT. DEMAIN,
BELNA SE PLACE ENTRE DEUX DORSALES D'ALTITUDE CE QUI POURRAIT BOOSTER
SA CIRCULATION D'ALTITUDE. UN EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR
DE L'OEIL POURRAIT EGALEMENT INTERVENIR. A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST PLUS INCERTAINE A LA SUITE DE
L'ATTERRISSAGE PREVU.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, BELNA DEVRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OUEST DES
GLORIEUSES PUIS A PLUS DE 120 KM A L'EST DE MAYOTTE SUIVANT LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE. EN SECONDE PARTIE DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI, UN
ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EST ENCORE ENVISAGE
SUR LA COTE NORD-OUEST MALGACHE, PARTICULIEREMENT EXPOSEE AU RISQUE
DE SURCOTE. SUIVANT LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA SURCOTE
MAXIMALE POURRAIT ATTEINDRE 2 A 3M A PROXIMITE DU POINT D'IMPACT. DE
PLUS, DES PLUIES DILUVIENNES SONT ATTENDUES DANS LES REGIONS AUTOUR
DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE, DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 200MM.

LES HABITANTS DE CES TERRITOIRES AINSI QUE DE L'EST DES COMORES ET DE
LA COTE NORD ET OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SONT INVITES A COMMENCER DES
PREPARATIFS SIMPLES ET CONTINUER DE SURVEILLER ATTENTIVEMENT
L'EVOLUTION DE BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2 S / 47.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/12/12 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS KEPT TRIGGERING
WITHIN THE EYEWALL. HOWEVER, THE EYE PATTERN TEMPORARILY DISAPPEARED
FROM THE IR IMAGES BETWEEN 09 AND 11UTC, ALTHOUGH IT REMAINED VISIBLE
IN VIS. 0610Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE SUGGEST THAT SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINS LOCATED QUITE CLOSE TO THE TC CORE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, WHICH COULD EXPLAIN THE TEMPORARY WEAKNESS OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN. BRUT DVORAK ESTIMATES RISED AGAIN OVER THE LAST HOUR. AS WE
WAIT FOR NEW MW IMAGES TO CONFIRM THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE MID-LEVEL
STRUCTURE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RATHER CONSERVATIVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST : BELNA SHOULD TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH. THE LAST ECMWF MODEL RUN IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE OTHER GUIDANCES. THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE, AROME AMONG THEM.
MONDAY, A LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR IS PLANNED NEAR THE REGION OF
MAJUNGA. THEN, THE UNCERTAINTY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OVER LAND.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT HOURS : WARMER WATERS AND NO WIND SHEAR. TOMORROW, BELNA
TRACKS BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WHICH COULD BOOST ITS OUTFLOW.
A POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD ALSO OCCUR. FROM MONADY
EVENING, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FOLLOWING THE
FORECASTED LANDFALL.

ON THIS TRACK, BELNA SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO THE WEST OF GLORIEUSES AND
THEN AT MORE THAN 120KM EAST OF MAYOTTE, ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, A LANDFALL AT THE STAGE
OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST ON THE NORTH-WESTERN
MADAGASCAN COAST, WHICH IS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THE STORM
SURGE. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF LANDFALL, THE MAX STORM SURGE
COULD REACH 3M NEAR THE IMPACT POINT. ADDITIONALLY, TORRENTIAL RAINS
ARE AWAITED ON THE REGIONS OF THE LANDFALL, LOCALLY EXCEEDING 200MM.

INHABITANTS FROM THESE TERRITORIES, THE EAST OF COMOROS AND THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MALAGASY COASTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY
THE EVOLUTION OF BELNA. THE INHABITANTS OF THE NORTH-WESTERN
MADAGASCAN COAST SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATION FOR A POSSIBLE LANDFALL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 071207
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2 S / 47.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 00 UTC:
11.5 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 12 UTC:
12.8 S / 46.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191207075811
2019120706 02S BELNA 006 02 220 06 SATL 010
T000 096S 0474E 085 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD
065 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 107S 0469E 100 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 119S 0465E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 132S 0460E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD
050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 147S 0453E 110 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD
040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 183S 0443E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 216S 0444E 045
T120 252S 0482E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 9.6S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191207075811
2019120706 02S BELNA 006 02 220 06 SATL 010
T000 096S 0474E 085 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 107S 0469E 100 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 119S 0465E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 132S 0460E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 147S 0453E 110 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 183S 0443E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 216S 0444E 045
T120 252S 0482E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 9.6S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 47.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.7S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.9S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.2S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.7S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.3S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.6S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.2S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 47.3E.
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 69S 505E 45
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120612 85S 486E 65
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120618 87S 483E 70
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120700 91S 478E 75
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
0219120706 96S 474E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 9.6S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 47.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.7S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 9.6S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 47.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.7S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.9S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.2S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.7S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.3S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.6S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.2S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 47.3E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
862 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 5-10 NM EYE IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND A
070548Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 75 KTS. WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KTS BY TAU 36.
AFTERWARD, TC 02S WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AND EXPERIENCE
LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. THAT, COUPLED WITH LAND INTERACTION WITH
MADAGASCAR, SHOULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO BEGIN FALLING, SLOWLY AT
FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 96, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER MADAGASCAR AND EMERGE BACK OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN AS A 30 KT SYSTEM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EASTERN OUTLIER (NAVGEM).
NOTABLY, THE FORECAST TRACK FALLS EAST OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER WATER UNTIL ABOUT TAU 120. IF TC 02S FOLLOWS A
TRACK SIMILAR TO THAT SOLUTION, THE STORM COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER OR
WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY. BASED ON SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070623 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6 S / 47.5 E
(NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 10.7 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 12/12/2019 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-.

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070623 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 47.5 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 10.7 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
120H: 2019/12/12 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-.

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070623
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/2/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6 S / 47.5 E
(NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 10.7 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 12/12/2019 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-;

LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT (NOTAMMENT AMSR2 DE 2202Z, PUIS
SSMI DE 0313Z) ONT MONTRE UN OEIL DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN
CONSOLIDATION. CETTE STRUCTURE EN OEIL A FINI PAR APPARAITRE SUR
L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE (VIS,IR) AU COURS DE LA DERNIERE HEURE. EN
CONSEQUENCE, LE STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL A ETE ATTEINT. LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE BONNE COTE SUD. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
ONT EGALEMENT MONTRE DES STRUCTURES DE "HOT-TOWER" SE DECLENCHANT AU
NIVEAU DU RAYON DE VENT MAX, VOIRE MEME A L'INTERIEUR DE CELUI-CI.
L'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT DONC SE POURSUIVRE, VOIRE MEME S'ACCELERER
AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT MAJEUR DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE. LE SYSTEME
CONTINUE SON ORIENTATION VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-SUD-OUEST AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ALORS QU'UN
COL BAROMETRIQUE APPROCHE AU NIVEAU DES LATITUDES TEMPEREES.
LE MODELE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN CONTINUE DE PROPOSER UNE TRAJECTOIRE
SITUEE PLUS A L'OUEST QUE LA MOYENNE, AVEC UNE DORSALE QUI TARDE UN
PEU PLUS A SE METTRE EN PLACE. LE SCENARIO ACTUEL EST BASE SUR UN
CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, DONT AROME.
LUNDI, UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST ENVISAGE AU NIVEAU DE
MAJUNGA. ENSUITE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE FRANCHEMENT A CAUSE DU
PASSAGE SUR TERRE DU SYSTEME.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS RAPIDE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES : POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN AUGMENTATION ET ABSENCE DE CISAILLEMENT. A PLUS LONG
TERME, LES POTENTIELS CYCLES DU MUR DE L'OEIL ET LE PROBABLE
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR RENDENT LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE PLUS
INCERTAINE MAIS LA TENDANCE EST A L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A
L'ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.
ON NOTE TOUT DE MEME QU'A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, UNE LEGERE
CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR SUD-EST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT FAIRE
STATIONNER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, BELNA DEVRAIT PASSER ENTRE LES ILES D'ALDABRA
ET ASTOVE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. IL DEVRAIT ENSUITE
CONTINUER SON CHEMIN A PROXIMITE OUEST DE GLORIEUSES PUIS A L'EST DE
MAYOTTE A PLUS DE 130KM SUIVANT LA PREVISION ACTUELLE.
LA COTE NORD-OUEST MALGACHE EST PARTICULIEREMENT EXPOSEE A UN RISQUE
DE SURCOTE. SUIVANT LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA SURCOTE
MAXIMALE POURRAIT ATTEINDRE 3M A PROXIMITE DU POINT D'IMPACT.

LES HABITANTS DE CES TERRITOIRES AINSI QUE DE L'EST DES COMORES ET DE
LA COTE NORD ET OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SONT INVITES A COMMENCER DES
PREPARATIFS SIMPLES ET CONTINUER DE SURVEILLER ATTENTIVEMENT
L'EVOLUTION DE BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070623
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 47.5 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 10.7 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
120H: 2019/12/12 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-;

2202Z AMSR2 AND 0313 SSMI MW IMAGES OF LAST NIGHT ALREADY WHOWED A
CONSOLIDATING EYE PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS EYE PATTERN HAS
FINALLY EMERGED ON THE CLASSIC IMAGERY (VIS AND IR) OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY, BELNA HAS REACHED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY. THE POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD. MW IMAGES ALSO
SHOWED SOME "HOT-TOWER" STRUCTURES ON, AND EVEN WITHIN THE MAXIMUM
WIND RADIUS. THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD THUS KEEP GOING OR EVEN
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT HOURS.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST : THE TRACK IS STILL BENDING
SOUTH-WESTWARD, AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH. THE ECMWF MODEL IS STILL
SUGGESTING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN THE AVERAGE, WITH THE RIDGE
APPEARING LATER THAN GFS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO AROME AND
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE.
MONDAY, A LANDING ON MADAGASCAR IS PLANNED NEAR THE AREA OF MAJUNGA.
THEN, THE UNCERTAINTY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER
LAND.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT HOURS. : WARMER WATERS AND NO WIND SHEAR. AT LONG RANGE,
UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE IMPORTANT DUE TO
POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND THE LIKELY LANDFALL ON
MADAGASCAR. THE TENDENCY REMAINS AN INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE LANDFALL.
FROM SUNDAY EVENING, SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MID-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD LIMIT A LITTLE THE
INTENSIFICATION.

ON THIS TRACK, BELNA SHOULD THREAD THE NEEDLE BETWEEN ALDABRA AND
ASTOVE DURING THE NEXT HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN PASS CLOSE TO
THE WEST TO GLORIEUSES THEN EAST OF MAYOTTE, AT MORE THAN 130KM
ACCORDING TO 0THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAN COAST IS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THE
STORM SURGE. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF LANDFALL, THE MAX STORM
SURGE COULD REACH 3M NEAR THE IMPACT POINT.

INHABITANTS FROM THESE TERRITORIES, THE EAST OF COMOROS AND THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MALAGASY COASTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY
THE EVOLUTION OF BELNA. THE INHABITANTS OF THE NORTH-WESTERN
MADAGASCAN COAST SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATION FOR AN EVENTUAL DIRECT
IMPACT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 070612
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/12/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 47.5 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 18 UTC:
10.7 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 06 UTC:
12.0 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070036 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/2/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.3 S / 47.8 E
(NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
120H: 12/12/2019 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070036 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/2/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 47.8 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/12/12 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070036
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/2/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.3 S / 47.8 E
(NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
120H: 12/12/2019 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CDO PERSISTE DEPUIS PLUS DE 12HEURES
AVEC UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE QUI SE MAINTENANT A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK RESTE A UNE VALEUR DE 4.0 PERMETTANT D'ESTIMER DES
VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 60KT. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES UNE ESQUISSE
D'OEIL SEMBLE APPARAITRE LAISSANT PENSER A UNE REPRISE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION.

POUR LE MOMENT, PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE : LE
SYSTEME CONTINUE SON ORIENTATION VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-SUD-OUEST
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST
ALORS QU'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE APPROCHE AU NIVEAU DES LATITUDES
TEMPEREES. L'INCERTITUDE DANS LES MODELES SE REDUIT AVEC LA MISE EN
ACCORD DU MODELE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN SUR UN PASSAGE A PLUS DE 100KM A
L'EST DE MAYOTTE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST ASSEZ PROCHE DE AROME ET
GFS. A PLUS LONG TERME, UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST ENVISAGE
AU NIVEAU DE MAJUNGA.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS RAPIDE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. LES EAUX
CHAUDES, UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET LA BAISSE D'UNE
CONTRAINTE FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR EST-SUD-EST DEVRAIT PERMETTRE A
BELNA D'ATTENDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE INTENSE SAMEDI EN SOIREE. A PLUS
LONG TERME, LES POTENTIELS CYCLES DU MUR DE L'OEIL ET LE PROBABLE
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR RENDENT LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE TRES
INCERTAINE MAIS LA TENDANCE EST A L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A
L'ATTERRISSAGE AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, BELNA DEVRAIT PASSER ENTRE LES ILES D'ALDABRA
ET ASTOVE AU COURS DES PROCHIANES HEURES. IL DEVRAIT ENSUITE
CONTINUER SON CHEMIN A PROXIMITE OUEST DE GLORIEUSES PUIS A L'EST DE
MAYOTTE DE L'ORDRE DE 130KM SUIVANT LA PREVISION ACTUELLE. LES
IMPACTS SONT ENCORE DELICATS A PREVOIR D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES VENTS
LES PLUS FORTS SONT RESTREINTS AU COEUR DU PHENOMENE (50-70KM), LES
PREMIERES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES POUVANT PLUTOT CONCERNER MAYOTTE EN
COURS DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE.

LES HABITANTS DE CES TERRITOIRES AINSI QUE DE L'EST DES COMORES ET DE
LA COTE NORD ET OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SONT INVITES A SUIVRE
ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DU PHENOMENE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070036
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/2/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 47.8 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/12/12 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION THAT REMAINS NEAR THE CENTRE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS REMAINS
AT A VALUE OF 4.0 ALLOWING TO ESTIMATE WINDS OF ABOUT 60KT. ON THE
LAST IMAGES AN EYE BEGINNING SEEMS TO APPEAR SUGGESTING A RESUMPTION
OF INTENSIFICATION.

FOR THE MOMENT, NO CHANGE IN THE FORECASTED TRACK: THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES BENDING SOUTH-WESTWARD AND AFTER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
THE BUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS IS REDUCED WITH THE AGREEMENT OF THE ECMWF MODEL ON A PASSAGE
MORE THAN 100KM EAST OF MAYOTTE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
AROME AND GFS. IN THE LONGER TERM, A LANDING ON MADAGASCAR IS PLANNED
NEAR THE AREA OF MAJUNGA.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOURS. WARM WATERS, EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND THE DECAY OF THE MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ARE LIKELY TO HELP BELNA REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS SATURDAY EVENING. AT LONG RANGE, UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IMPORTANT DUE TO POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND
THE LIKELY LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR BUT THE TREND IS TO INTENSIFY UNTIL
LANDING. BUT THE TREND IS TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDING AT
THE THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

ON THIS TRACK, BELNA SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN ALDABRA AND ASTOVE DURING
THE NEXT HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN PASS CLOSE TO THE WEST TO
GLORIEUSES THEN EAST OF MAYOTTE (ABOUT 130KM FOLLOWING THE PRESENT
FORECASED TRACK). THE CLOSEST DISTANCE TO THESE ISLAND IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. POTENTIAL ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
INNER CORE AND STRONGEST WINDS (50-70KM), THE FIRST PERIPHERAL
RAINBANDS MAY CONCERN MAYOTTE DURING THE NIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY.

INHABITANTS FROM THESE TERRITORIES, THE EAST OF COMOROS AND THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MALAGASY COAST ARE INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY
THE EVOLUTION OF BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 070011
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/12/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 47.8 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 12 UTC:
10.3 S / 47.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 00 UTC:
11.5 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 062100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191206205108
2019120618 02S BELNA 005 02 190 06 SATL 020
T000 092S 0484E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD
045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 101S 0477E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 113S 0473E 090 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 125S 0469E 095 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD
050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 140S 0462E 090 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD
040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 169S 0450E 060
T096 193S 0447E 035
T120 223S 0467E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 9.2S 48.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 062100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 9.2S 48.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 48.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.1S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191206205108
2019120618 02S BELNA 005 02 190 06 SATL 020
T000 092S 0484E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 101S 0477E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 113S 0473E 090 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 125S 0469E 095 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 140S 0462E 090 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 169S 0450E 060
T096 193S 0447E 035
T120 223S 0467E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 9.2S 48.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 48.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.1S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.3S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.5S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.0S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.9S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.3S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.3S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 9.4S 48.2E.
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 69S 505E 45
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120600 75S 491E 60
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120606 80S 487E 65
0219120612 86S 485E 65
0219120612 86S 485E 65
0219120612 86S 485E 65
0219120618 92S 484E 65
0219120618 92S 484E 65
0219120618 92S 484E 65
NNNN
0000006300
929
NCNC01 EGRR 062100
03008 444 00066 10055 20010=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 9.2S 48.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 48.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.1S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.3S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.5S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.0S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.9S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.3S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.3S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 9.4S 48.2E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 787
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY CYCLING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON 061822Z METOP-B AMSU
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KTS WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE, CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 4.0 (65 KTS) AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A 061500Z SATCON
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 59 KTS AND A 061500Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T3.7 (57 KTS). OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, TC 02S HAS
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING IN TO THE EAST. AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 02S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KTS AT TAU 36.
FOLLOWING THAT, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SHORTLY BEFORE
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR WHERE LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE TC 02S TO BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 12, CREATING A LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD (470 NM) BY TAU 96. OF THESE SOLUTIONS, ECWMF IS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER AND PRESENTS A SOLUTION WHERE TC 02S TRACKS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND DOES NOT INTERACT WITH LAND UNTIL AFTER TAU 120. THIS DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DUE TO THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH AFRICA THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE STEERING OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THIS SPREAD, THE SYSTEM COULD MAINTAIN HIGHER INTENSITIES THROUGH LATER TAUS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061856 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/2/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.8 S / 48.1 E
(HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
120H: 11/12/2019 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061856 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/2/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 48.1 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/12/11 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061856
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/2/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.8 S / 48.1 E
(HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
120H: 11/12/2019 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, IL N'Y A PAS EU BEAUCOUP DE
CHANGEMENT DANS LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE. LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
RESTE LOCALISEE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK RESTE A UNE
VALEUR DE 4.0 PERMETTANT D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 60KT.

POUR LE MOMENT, PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE : LE
SYSTEME CONTINUE SON ORIENTATION VERS LE SUD-OUEST AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ALORS QU'UN
COL BAROMETRIQUE APPROCHE AU NIVEAU DES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. CES
CONDITIONS COMBINEES A L'INTENSIFICATION SONT PROPICES A UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-SUD-OUEST. L'INCERTITUDE EST
ENCORE IMPORTANTE A 48H (ENVIRON 150/200KM) PARMI LES MODELES
NUMERIQUES. LE MODELE EUROPEEN EST TOUJOURS ISOLE DANS UN SCENARIO
OUEST ALORS QUE LES AUTRES MODELES SEMBLENT CONVERGER VERS UN PASSAGE
A PLUS DE 100KM A L'EST DE MAYOTTE. LE MODELE POURRAIT SOUFFRIR D'UN
DEFAUT DANS SA REPRESENTATION INITIALE DE L'INTENSITE MAIS AUSSI DE
LA REPRESENTATION PLUS MARQUEE DE LA DORSALE GUIDANT LA TRAJECTOIRE.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST ASSEZ PROCHE DE AROME ET GFS. A PLUS LONG
TERME, UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST PROBABLE MAIS IL EST ENCORE
DIFFICILE DE PRECISER SA LOCALISATION.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE PUIS PLUS RAPIDE DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES. LES EAUX CHAUDES, UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET LA
BAISSE D'UNE CONTRAINTE FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR EST-SUD-EST
DEVRAIT PERMETTRE A BELNA D'ATTENDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE INTENSE
SAMEDI EN SOIREE. A PLUS LONG TERME, LES POTENTIELS CYCLES DU MUR DE
L'OEIL ET LE PROBABLE ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR RENDENT LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE TRES INCERTAINE MAIS LA TENDANCE EST A
L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, BELNA DEVRAIT PASSER ENTRE LES ILES D'ALDABRA
ET ASTOVE EN FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE. L'ILOT D'ASTOVE POURRAIT
CONNAITRE LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SITUES DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.
IL DEVRAIT ENSUITE CONTINUER SON CHEMIN A PROXIMITE OUEST DE
GLORIEUSES PUIS A L'EST DE MAYOTTE. LA DISTANCE LA PLUS PROCHE AU
PASSAGE DE CES ILES ET ENCORE DIFFICILE A DETERMINER. LES IMPACTS
SONT ENCORE DELICATS A PREVOIR D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES VENTS LES PLUS
FORTS SONT RESTREINTS AU COEUR DU PHENOMENE (50-70KM). LES HABITANTS
DE CES TERRITOIRES AINSI QUE DE L'EST DES COMORES ET DE LA COTE NORD
ET OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SONT INVITES A SUIVRE ATTENTIVEMENT
L'EVOLUTION DU PHENOMENE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061856
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/2/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 48.1 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/12/11 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE CLOUD
PATTERN. THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LOCALIZED NEAR THE CENTER. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS REMAINS AT A VALUE OF 4.0 ALLOWING TO ESTIMATE WINDS
OF ABOUT 60KT.

FOR THE MOMENT, NO CHANGE IN THE FORECASTED TRACK: THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES BENDING SOUTH-WESTWARD WITH THE BUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE
INTENSIFICATION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE UNCERTAIN FOR THE 2 DAY FORECAST IS
STILL IMPORTANT (AROUND 150/200KM) AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
EUROPEAN MODEL IS ISOLATED ON A WESTERN TRACK WHILE OVER MODELS ARE
CONVERGING TOWARD A TRACK 100KM EAST OF MAYOTTE. THE MODEL MAY SUFFER
FROM A BAD INITIAL INTENSITY BUT ALSO THE MORE MARKED REPRESENTATION
OF THE RIDGE GUIDING THE TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
AROME AND GFS. AT LONG RANGE A LANDFALL ON THE MALAGASY COAST IS
LIKELY BUT IT STILL VERY DIFFICULT TO PRECISE ITS LOCATION.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL THEN
RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOURS. WARM WATERS, EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND THE DECAY OF THE MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ARE LIKELY TO HELP BELNA REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS SATURDAY EVENING. AT LONG RANGE, UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IMPORTANT DUE TO POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND
THE LIKELY LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR BUT THE TREND IS TO INTENSIFY UNTIL
LANDING.

ON THIS TRACK, BELNA SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN ALDABRA AND ASTOVE AT THE
END OF THE NIGHT. ASTOVE MAY EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS THE STORM
WHICH ARE LOCATED IN HE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEN PASS CLOSE TO THE WEST TO GLORIEUSES THEN EAST OF MAYOTTE. THE
CLOSEST DISTANCE TO THESE ISLAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. POTENTIAL ARE
EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE AND STRONGEST
WINDS (50-70KM). INHABITANTS FROM THESE TERRITORIES, THE EAST OF
COMOROS AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MALAGASY COAST ARE INVITED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 061820
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 06/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 48.1 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 06 UTC:
9.7 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 18 UTC:
11.1 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061235 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/2/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.5 S / 48.5 E
(HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 9.2 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061235 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/2/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 48.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 9.2 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061235
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/2/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.5 S / 48.5 E
(HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 9.2 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/12/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 11/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, APRES UNE PAUSE DANS L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A REPRIS NOTAMMENT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION. MALGRE L'ASPECT NUAGEUX, LA PASSE
GMI DE 1006Z MONTRE QUE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE DE BASSES COUCHE A
PEU EVOLUE DEPUIS CE MATIN. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 60KT. LA
TRAJECTOIRE OBSERVEE A ETE RECALEE AVEC LES DONNES MICRO-ONDES ET
ASCAT QUI ONT CONFIRME LA POSITION PLUS SUD EVOQUE DANS LE DERNIER
BULLETIN.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON INCURVATION VERS LE
SUD-OUEST AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A
L'EST ALORS QU'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE APPROCHE AU NIVEAU DES LATITUDES
TEMPEREES. CES CONDITIONS COMBINEES A L'INTENSIFICATION SONT PROPICES
A UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-SUD-OUEST. L'INCERTITUDE
EST ENCORE IMPORTANTE A 48H (ENVIRON 150/200KM) PARMI LES MODELES
NUMERIQUES. LE MODELE EUROPEEN EST TOUJOURS ISOLE DANS UN SCENARIO
OUEST ALORS QUE LES AUTRES MODELES SEMBLENT CONVERGER VERS UN PASSAGE
A PLUS DE 100KM A L'EST DE MAYOTTE. LE MODELE POURRAIT SOUFFRIR D'UN
DEFAUT DANS SA REPRESENTATION INITIALE DE L'INTENSITE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST ASSEZ PROCHE DE AROME ET GFS. A PLUS LONG TERME, UN
ATTERISAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST PROBABLE MAIS IL EST ENCORE DIFFICILE
DE PRECISER SA POTENTIELLE LOCALISATION.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE PUIS PLUS RAPIDE DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES. LES EAUX CHAUDES, UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET LA
BAISSE D'UNE CONTRAINTE FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR EST-SUD-EST
DEVRAIT PERMETTRE A BELNA D'ATTENDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE INTENSE
DEMAIN. A PLUS LONG TERME, LES POTENTIELS CYCLES DU MUR DE L'OEIL ET
LE PROBABLE ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR RENDENT LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE TRES INCERTAINE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, BELNA DEVRAIT PASSER ENTRE LES ILES D'ALDABRA
ET ASTOVE EN FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE. L'ILOT D'ASTOVE POURRAIT
CONNAITRE LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SITUES DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.
IL DEVRAIT ENSUITE CONTINUER SON CHEMIN A PROXIMITE OUEST DE
GLORIEUSES PUIS A L'EST DE MAYOTTE. LA DISTANCE LA PLUS PROCHE AU
PASSAGE DE CES ILES ET ENCORE DIFFICILE A DETERMINER. LES IMPACTS
SONT ENCORE DELICATS A PREVOIR D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES VENTS LES PLUS
FORTS SONT RESTREINTS AU COEUR DU PHENOMENE (50-70KM). LES HABITANTS
DE CES TERRITOIRES AINSI QUE DE L'EST DES COMORES ET DE LA COTE NORD
DE MADAGASCAR SONT INVITES A SUIVRE ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DES
PHENOMENES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/2/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 48.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 9.2 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/10 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/12/11 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, AFTER A PERIOD OF LOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
DEEP CONVECTION RESUMED NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT. DESPITE, THE CLOUD PATTERN, 1006Z GMI SWATH SHOW THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BARELY EVOLVED FROM THIS MORNING. INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED TO 60KT. THE OBSERVED TRACK WAS RELOCATED THANKS TO
MICROWAVE AND ASCAT DATA THAT CONFIRMED THE SOUTHERN POSITION
MENTIONED IN THE LAST BULLETIN.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES BENDING
SOUTH-WESTWARD WITH THE BUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE INTENSIFICATION ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR A SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
UNCERTAIN FOR THE 2 DAY FORECAST IS STILL IMPORTANT (AROUND
150/200KM) AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. EUROPEAN MODEL IS ISOLATED
ON A WESTERN TRACK WHILE OVER MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD A TRACK
100KM EAST OF MAYOTTE. THE MODEL MAY SUFFER FROM A BAD INITIAL
INTENSITY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO AROME AND GFS. AT LONG
RANGE A LANDFALL ON THE MALAGASY COAST IS LIKELY BUT IT STILL VERY
DIFFICULT TO PRECISE ITS POTENTIAL LOCATION.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL THEN
RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOURS. WARM WATERS, EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND THE DECAY OF THE MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ARE LIKELY TO HELP BELNA REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS. AT LONG RANGE, UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IMPORTANT DUE TO POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND THE LIKELY
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR.

ON THIS TRACK, BELNA SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN ALDABRA AND ASTOVE AT THE
END OF THE NIGHT. ASTOVE MAY EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS THE STORM
WHICH ARE LOCATED IN HE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEN PASS CLOSE TO THE WEST TO GLORIEUSES THEN EAST OF MAYOTTE. THE
CLOSEST DISTANCE TO THESE ISLAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. POTENTIAL ARE
EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE AND STRONGEST
WINDS (50-70KM). INHABITANTS FROM THESE TERRITORIES, THE EAST OF
COMOROS AND THE NORTHERN MALAGASY COAST ARE INVITED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF BELNA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 061216
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 06/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 48.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 00 UTC:
9.2 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 12 UTC:
10.5 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191206080735
2019120606 02S BELNA 004 02 225 07 SATL 020
T000 079S 0487E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD
050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 087S 0478E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD
040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 097S 0472E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 109S 0467E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 123S 0462E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 148S 0454E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD
030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 183S 0444E 040 R034 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 223S 0454E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 48.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 48.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 48.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 8.7S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191206080735
2019120606 02S BELNA 004 02 225 07 SATL 020
T000 079S 0487E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 087S 0478E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 097S 0472E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 109S 0467E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 123S 0462E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 148S 0454E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 183S 0444E 040 R034 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 223S 0454E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 48.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 48.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 8.7S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 9.7S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.9S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.3S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.8S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.3S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.3S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 8.1S 48.5E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 847
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 69S 505E 45
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120518 72S 497E 55
0219120600 74S 492E 60
0219120600 74S 492E 60
0219120606 79S 487E 65
0219120606 79S 487E 65
0219120606 79S 487E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 48.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 48.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 8.7S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 9.7S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.9S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.3S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.8S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.3S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.3S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 8.1S 48.5E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 847
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP, RAPIDLY CYCLING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 060547Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE AND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN A 060548Z ASCAT-B IMAGE. AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65KTS IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0
(65KTS) AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-B DATA. OVER THE PAST TWELVE
HOURS, TC 02S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM
IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ROUND THE STR TO
THE EAST AND TRACK POLEWARD WHERE IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE
TO WARM SST AND LOW VWS THROUGH TAU 48, AND ACHIEVE A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 90KTS AT THIS TIME. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD,
THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 72, WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH LAND. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD (520NM) IN NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS BY TAU 96. IN PARTICULAR, ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST TRACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH NO
LANDFALL BY TAU 120. THIS DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DUE TO
THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH AFRICA THAT IS
INTERACTING WITH THE STEERING OF THE SYSTEM. THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS SPREAD SUGGEST THAT THE STORM MAY RETAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IF LANDFALL IS NOT ACHIEVED BY TAU 96. THIS
WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060654 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/2/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.8 S / 48.8 E
(SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 70 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060654 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.8 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 70 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060654
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/2/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.8 S / 48.8 E
(SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 70 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/12/2019 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 11/12/2019 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BELNA
S'EST RECHAUFFEE. UNE ESQUISSE DE POINT CHAUD EST APPARU MAIS ELLE NE
SEMBLE PAS TOUT A FAIT CORRESPONDRE AU CENTRE REPERE PAR LA WINDSAT
DE 0241Z. LES DONNEES PRELIMINAIRES ASCAT SEMBLERAIT TENDRE VERS UN
CENTRE PLUS AU SUD. UN OEIL TEMPORAIRE ETAIT APPARU EN FIN DE NUIT
SUR LES IMAGES SSMIS AVANT UNE LEGERE DEGRADATION. LES DERNIERS
PASSES ASCAT CONFIRMENT UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL. L'INTENSITE EST DONC REHAUSSEE A 60KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME COMMENCE SON INCURVATION VERS LE
SUD-OUEST AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A
L'EST ALORS QU'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE APPROCHE AU NIVEAU DES LATITUDES
TEMPEREES. CES CONDITIONS COMBINEES A L'INTENSIFICATION SONT PROPICES
A UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-SUD-OUEST. L'INCERTITUDE
EST ENCORE IMPORTANTE A 48H (ENVIRON 150/200KM) PARMI LES MODELES
NUMERIQUES. LE MODELE EUROPEEN EST ASSEZ ISOLE DANS UN SCENARIO OUEST
ALORS QUE LES AUTRES MODELES SEMBLENT CONVERGER VERS UN PASSAGE A
PLUS DE 100KM A L'EST DE MAYOTTE. LE MODELE POURRAIT SOUFFRIR D'UN
DEFAUT DANS SA REPRESENTATION INITIALE DE L'INTENSITE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST ASSEZ PROCHE DE GFS. A PLUS LONG TERME, L'INCERTITUDE
EST ENCORE PLUS IMPORTANTE AVEC UN PROBABLE PASSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR
MAIS QUI RESTE ENCORE DELICAT A PRECISER EN LOCALISATION.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE PUIS PLUS RAPIDE DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES. LES EAUX CHAUDES, UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET LA
BAISSE D'UNE CONTRAINTE FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR EST-SUD-EST
DEVRAIT PERMETTRE A BELNA D'ATTENDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE INTENSE
DEMAIN. A PLUS LONG TERME, LES POTENTIELS CYCLES DU MUR DE L'OEIL ET
LE PROBABLE ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR RENDENT LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE TRES INCERTAINE.

LES HABITANTS DES ILES DES SEYCHELLES EXTERIEURES (FARQUAHR,
ALDABRA), DE L'EST DES COMORES ET DE MAYOTTE AINSI QUE DU NORD DE
MADAGASCAR SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DE PRES L'EVOLUTION DE LA
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.8 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 70 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN WARMED UP. A WARM SPOT
APPEARED BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO MATCH WITH THE CENTER ON THE 0241Z
WINDSAT. PRELIMINARY ASCAT DATA TEND TO SUPPORT A SOUTHERLY CENTER. A
TEMPORARY EYE APPEARED IN THE LATE NIGHT SSMIS DATA BEFORE
DETERIORATING. LAST ASCAT DATA SUPPORT AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. INTENSITY IS UPGRADED TO 60KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVES ANALYSIS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM START BENDING SOUTH-WESTWARD
WITH THE BUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE INTENSIFICATION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE UNCERTAIN FOR THE
2 DAY FORECAST IS STILL IMPORTANT (AROUND 150/200KM) AMONG THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. EUROPEAN MODEL IS ISOLATED ON A WESTERN TRACK
WHILE OVER MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD A TRACK 100KM EAST OF
MAYOTTE. THE MODEL MAY SUFFER FROM A BAD INITIAL INTENSITY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO GFS. AT LONG RANGE IT IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH A PROBABLE LANDFALL ON THE MALAGASY COAST BUT STILL
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST PRECISELY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL THEN
RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOURS. WARM WATERS, EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND THE DECAY OF THE MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ARE LIKELY TO HELP BELNA REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS. AT LONG RANGE, UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTESITY FORECAST IS
IMPORTANT DUE TO POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND THE LIKELY
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR.

INHABITANTS OF THE OUTER ISLANDS OF SEYCHELLES(FARQUHAR, ALDABRA),
EAST OF COMOROS, MAYOTTE THEN OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 060622
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/12/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 06/12/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.8 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/06 AT 18 UTC:
8.5 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 06 UTC:
9.5 S / 47.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060049 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/2/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.4 S / 49.2 E
(SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060049 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/2/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 49.2 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060049
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/2/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.4 S / 49.2 E
(SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/12/2019 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 11/12/2019 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CDO S'EST
AMELIOREE AVEC UN CDO BIEN DEFINI ASSOCIE A DES SOMMETS DES NUAGES
BIEN FROIDS.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE DERIVER VERS L'OUEST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLISSANTE DANS LES
COUCHES BASSES ET MOYENNE DE LA TROPOSPHERE. LA NUIT PROCHAINE, UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE RENFORCE PAR L'EST ALORS QU'UN COL
BAROMETRIQUE APPROCHE AU NIVEAU DES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. CES
CONDITIONS SONT PROPICES A UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS
SUD-SUD-OUEST. AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE QUI SE REDUIT DANS LA
REPRESENTATION PAR LES DERNIERS MODELES DISPONIBLES, CETTE PREVISION
MAINTIENT UN PASSAGE A L'OUEST DE MADAGASCAR EN SUIVANT UN CONSENSUS
IFS/GFS/UK.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE AVEC DES EAUX CHAUDES ET UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NOTAMMENT COTE A QUATORIALE. UNE CONTRAINTE
FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR EST PERSISTE TOUT DE MA ME MAIS ELLE EST
PRA VUE S'ATTA NUER A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE QUAND LE SYSTEME AURA
PLONGER DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. DANS CE CONTEXTE LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER A UN RYTHME CLIMATOLOGIQUE. TOUTEFOIS DES
INCERTITUDES RESTENT PRESENTES SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE LIEES A
L'INTERACTION EVENTUELLE AVEC MADAGASCAR.

LES HABITANTS DU NORD DE MADAGASCAR, DES COMORES, MAYOTTE AINSI QUE
DES ILES DU SUD-OUEST DE L'ARCHIPEL DES SEYCHELLES (FARQUAHR,
ALDABRA) SONT INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/2/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 49.2 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/10 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/12/11 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH A
CDO BETTER AND BETTER DEFINED ASSOCIATED TO CLOUD TOPS VERY COLD.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARDS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDE.
NEXT NIGHT, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE TO A SOUTHWEST TRACK AND AFTER A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK. WITH AN UNCERTAINTY THAT IS REDUCED IN THE
REPRESENTATION BY THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS AVAILABLE, THIS
FORECAST MAINTAINS A PASSAGE TO THE WEST OF MADAGASCAR BY FOLLOWING A
CONSENSUS IFS/GFS/UK.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM WATERS AND A GOOD EQUATORWARDS OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR BUT
THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD WEAKEN FROM SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AND ARE LINKED AT THE POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE LAND
OF MADAGASCAR FROM MONDAY.

INHABITANTS OF THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS, MAYOTTE
AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN OUTER ISLANDS OF SEYCHELLES(FARQUHAR, ALDABRA)
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 060011
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/12/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 06/12/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 49.2 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 220 MN OVER THE NORTHERN SECTOR.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/06 AT 12 UTC:
7.9 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 00 UTC:
9.0 S / 47.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 052100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191205210353
2019120518 02S BELNA 003 02 250 08 SATL 025
T000 071S 0499E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 077S 0486E 065 R064 015 NE QD 005 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD
030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 083S 0481E 075 R064 015 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 094S 0475E 085 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 107S 0471E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 135S 0461E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD
040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 167S 0451E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 203S 0449E 035 R034 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 035 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 7.1S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 052100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 7.1S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.1S 49.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 7.7S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191205210353
2019120518 02S BELNA 003 02 250 08 SATL 025
T000 071S 0499E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 077S 0486E 065 R064 015 NE QD 005 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 083S 0481E 075 R064 015 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 094S 0475E 085 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 107S 0471E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 135S 0461E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 167S 0451E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 203S 0449E 035 R034 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 035 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 7.1S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.1S 49.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 7.7S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 8.3S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 9.4S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.7S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.5S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.7S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.3S 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 7.2S 49.6E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 863
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0219120118 53S 545E 20
0219120200 55S 549E 20
0219120206 57S 552E 25
0219120212 60S 536E 25
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 66S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
0219120512 68S 507E 45
0219120518 71S 499E 55
0219120518 71S 499E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 7.1S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.1S 49.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 7.7S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 8.3S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 9.4S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.7S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.5S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.7S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.3S 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 7.2S 49.6E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 863
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT ON THE 051844Z ASCAT-B IMAGE,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY IS
CONSISTENT WITH PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5
(55 KNOTS), A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS AT 051528Z, AND 50 KNOT
WINDS ON THE 051844Z ASCAT-B PASS. OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, TC 02S
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM HAS
STEADILY INTENSIFIED UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER (28-29C) AND
MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED
AND PERSISTED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS AS THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COASTLINE OF NORTHWESTERN
MADAGASCAR AT TAU 96. RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS TRIGGERED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SUPPORTING AN INTENSIFICATION OF 30 KNOTS TO 85 KNOTS AT
TAU 36. AFTER TAU 72, DECREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND EVENTUAL
LANDFALL ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST
SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED
AND ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WESTERNMOST OUTLIERS, ECMWF AND THE UK ENSEMBLE, TRACK TC 02S INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY TAU 120 INSTEAD OF BRINGING IT INTO MADAGASCAR;
IF THIS MODEL SOLUTION PANS OUT INSTEAD OF THE PROJECTED TRACK THERE
IS POTENTIAL THAT TC 02S WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, PARTICULARLY IN THE LATER TAUS. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST
LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO NOTED MODEL SPREAD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060900Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051840 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/2/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.2 S / 50.0 E
(SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/12/2019 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 9.4 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051840 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 50.0 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 9.4 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051840
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/2/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.2 S / 50.0 E
(SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/12/2019 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 9.4 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/12/2019 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 10/12/2019 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, DE PUISSANTES BOUFFA ES CONVECTIVES
SE SONT PRODUITES PRES DU CENTRE RENFORA ANT UN CDO CONSTITUA DE
NUAGES TRES FROID. EN ACCORD AVEC L'AMELIORATION DE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE, LE SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE DERIVER VERS L'OUEST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLISSANTE DANS LES
COUCHES BASSES ET MOYENNE DE LA TROPOSPHERE. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ
LENTE DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 6H. ENSUITE, UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE RENFORCE PAR L'EST ALORS QU'UN COL
BAROMETRIQUE APPROCHE AU NIVEAU DES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. CES
CONDITIONS SONT PROPICES A UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS
SUD-SUD-OUEST. AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE QUI SE REDUIT DANS LA
REPRESENTATION PAR LES DERNIERS MODELES DISPONIBLES, CETTE PREVISION
MAINTIENT UN PASSAGE A L'OUEST DE MADAGASCAR EN SUIVANT UN CONSENSUS
IFS/GFS/UK.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT PLUTOT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE, AVEC UNE CONVERGENCE CONVENABLE EN BASSES
COUCHES ET DES EAUX CHAUDES. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST DEVRAIT
TOUTEFOIS ETRE OMNIPRESENT SUR LA PERIODE MAIS POURRAIT ETRE COMPENSE
PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE EQUATEUR NOTAMMENT. DANS CE
CONTEXTE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER D'ABORD LENTEMENT PUIS A UN
RYTHME CLIMATOLOGIQUE. TOUTEFOIS LES INCERTITUDES DE LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTENT IMPORTANTES ET SONT LIEES A LA PRESENCE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST MODERE PREVU PAR CERTAINS MODELES ET A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE A L'INTERACTION EVENTUELLE AVEC MADAGASCAR. DES
FLUCTUATIONS AU COURS DE LA PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION SONT DONC
POSSIBLES MAIS LE SYSTEME 02 DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL POUR DIMANCHE ET CONTINUER SON INTENSIFICATION LORS DE SA
TRAJECTOIRE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE.

LES HABITANTS DU NORD DE MADAGASCAR, DES COMORES, MAYOTTE AINSI QUE
DES ILES DU SUD-OUEST DE L'ARCHIPEL DES SEYCHELLES (FARQUAHR,
ALDABRA) SONT INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 50.0 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 9.4 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/12/10 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, SOME STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE
OCCURED NEAR THE CENTER, STRENGTHENING A CDO WITH VERY COLD TOP
CLOUDS. ACCORDING WITH THIS IMPROVMENT F THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION THE
SYSTEM HAS NAMED.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARDS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDE.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THEN, A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE TO A SOUTHWEST TRACK AND AFTER A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK.
WITH AN UNCERTAINTY THAT IS REDUCED IN THE REPRESENTATION BY THE
LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS AVAILABLE, THIS FORECAST MAINTAINS A PASSAGE
TO THE WEST OF MADAGASCAR BY FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS IFS/GFS/UK.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH A FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW (HOWEVER POSSIBLY
IMPEDED BY THE CYCLOGENESIS OF SYSTEM 03 IN THE EAST) AND WARM
WATERS. THE EASTERLY SHEAR COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR SOMETIMES OVER
THE PERIOD BUT COULD ALSO BE OFFSET BY A GOOD EQUATORWARDS OUTFLOW.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY THEN AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY TO FOLLOW THE TREND GIVEN BY THE MOST
RELIABLE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES ARE SIGNIFICANT AND ARE LINKED TO AN EASTERLY MODERATE
CONSTRAINT FORECASTING BY SOME MODELS AND FROM SUNDAY THE POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH THE LAND OF MADAGASCAR. FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE
INTENSIFICATION PHASE ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE BUT SYSTEM 02 SHOULD
REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS
INTENSIFICATION DURING ITS TRACK IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

INHABITANTS OF THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS, MAYOTTE
AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN OUTER ISLANDS OF SEYCHELLES(FARQUHAR, ALDABRA)
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 050900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191205084450
2019120506 02S TWO 002 02 245 04 SATL 040
T000 067S 0509E 040 R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 071S 0496E 050 R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 076S 0486E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 083S 0480E 065 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
085 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 093S 0476E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD
065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 120S 0470E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD
055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 146S 0459E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 174S 0445E 035 R034 045 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 6.7S 50.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 050900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 6.7S 50.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S 50.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 7.1S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 7.6S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 050900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191205084450
2019120506 02S TWO 002 02 245 04 SATL 040
T000 067S 0509E 040 R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 071S 0496E 050 R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 076S 0486E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 083S 0480E 065 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 093S 0476E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 120S 0470E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 146S 0459E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 174S 0445E 035 R034 045 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 6.7S 50.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S 50.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 7.1S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 7.6S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 8.3S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 9.3S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.0S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.6S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.4S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 6.8S 50.6E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 867 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0219120118 53S 545E 20
0219120200 55S 549E 20
0219120206 57S 552E 25
0219120212 60S 536E 25
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 65S 518E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 65S 515E 35
0219120500 65S 513E 35
0219120506 67S 509E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 6.7S 50.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S 50.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 7.1S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 7.6S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 8.3S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 9.3S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.0S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.6S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.4S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 6.8S 50.6E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 867 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE AND A 050534Z ASCAT-C
PASS. THE INTENSITY IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES BASED ON 35-40 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, TC 02S HAS
TRACKED SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER
(28-29C) AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL OR MOVING ALONG THE
COASTLINE OF NORTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120.
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 48 AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, A
LESS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PATTERN AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND
ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
NOTED MODEL SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S (AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 042100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191204195740
2019120418 02S TWO 001 02 200 03 SATL 045
T000 068S 0514E 035 R034 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 071S 0505E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 076S 0495E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 083S 0485E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 091S 0479E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 111S 0471E 070 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 135S 0463E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 169S 0451E 040 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 6.8S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 042100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 6.8S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.8S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 7.1S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 7.6S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 042100 COR
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191205005812
2019120418 02S TWO 001A 02 180 02 SATL 060
T000 067S 0516E 035 R034 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 071S 0505E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 076S 0495E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 083S 0485E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 091S 0479E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 111S 0471E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 135S 0463E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 169S 0451E 040 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 6.7S 51.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S 51.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 7.1S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 7.6S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 8.3S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.1S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.1S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.5S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.9S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 6.8S 51.3E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 855 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0219120118 53S 545E 20
0219120200 55S 549E 20
0219120206 57S 552E 25
0219120212 60S 536E 25
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 63S 517E 25
0219120412 65S 516E 30
0219120418 67S 516E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 042100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040321ZDEC2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 6.8S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.8S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 7.1S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 7.6S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 8.3S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.1S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.1S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.5S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.9S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 6.9S 51.2E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 853 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE ELONGATED (NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST) LLCC EVIDENT
ON A 041830Z ASCAT-C PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 02S
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE INITIAL STEERING MECHANISM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36 TC 02S TURNS POLEWARD AND TAKES MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A MAXIMUM OF 70 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AFTER WHICH TIME DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK THERE IS A BROAD SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, 200 NM AT TAU 48. THE UK MET ENSEMBLE IS THE FAR WEST OUTLIER TRACKING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS THE FAR EAST OUTLIER TRACKING INTO CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS CURRENTLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 040330).
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED PARAGRAPH 2 AND REFERENCE A.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 6.8S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.8S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 7.1S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 7.6S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 8.3S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.1S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.1S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.5S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.9S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 6.9S 51.2E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 853 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE ELONGATED (NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST) LLCC EVIDENT
ON A 041830Z ASCAT-C PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 02S
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. A
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE INITIAL
STEERING MECHANISM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG ITS
NORTHERN PERIPHERY THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36 TC 02S TURNS POLEWARD
AND TAKES MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY TO A MAXIMUM OF 70 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AFTER WHICH TIME
DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK THERE IS A BROAD SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS, 200 NM AT TAU 48. THE UK MET ENSEMBLE IS THE FAR WEST
OUTLIER TRACKING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS
THE FAR EAST OUTLIER TRACKING INTO CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. DUE TO THE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS CURRENTLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S (THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191204195740
2019120418 02S TWO 001 02 200 03 SATL 045
T000 068S 0514E 035 R034 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 071S 0505E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 076S 0495E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 083S 0485E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 091S 0479E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 111S 0471E 070 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 135S 0463E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 169S 0451E 040 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 6.8S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.8S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 7.1S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 7.6S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 8.3S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.1S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.1S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.5S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.9S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 6.9S 51.2E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 853 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0219120118 53S 545E 20
0219120200 55S 549E 20
0219120206 57S 552E 25
0219120212 60S 536E 25
0219120218 64S 532E 20
0219120300 63S 531E 20
0219120306 63S 530E 20
0219120312 63S 529E 20
0219120318 63S 528E 25
0219120400 65S 520E 25
0219120406 62S 516E 25
0219120412 65S 515E 30
0219120418 68S 514E 35
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