Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CALVINIA-19
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 020612 RRA
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/01/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/01/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-CALVINIA) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.4 S / 63.8 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 150 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/02 AT 18 UTC:
37.6 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 0 , POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/03 AT 06 UTC:
40.3 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 0 , POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 020612
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/01/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/01/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-CALVINIA) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.4 S / 63.8 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 150 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/02 AT 18 UTC:
37.6 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 0 , POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/03 AT 06 UTC:
40.3 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 0 , POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE PROVIDED WITH THE FQIO20 FMEE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AT 06Z AND 18Z BY
METEO FRANCE REUNION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 012339
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/01/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/01/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-CALVINIA) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.0 S / 62.6 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/02 AT 12 UTC:
35.7 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/03 AT 00 UTC:
38.8 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 011803
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/01/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/01/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-CALVINIA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.1 S / 61.7 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/02 AT 06 UTC:
34.2 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/02 AT 18 UTC:
37.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 011500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 200101123124
2020010112 05S CALVINIA 007 01 165 23 SATL 020
T000 291S 0611E 055 R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 330S 0633E 050 R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
270 NE QD 320 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 29.1S 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 61.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 33.0S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 011500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 29.1S 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 61.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 33.0S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 200101123124
2020010112 05S CALVINIA 007 01 165 23 SATL 020
T000 291S 0611E 055 R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 330S 0633E 050 R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 320 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 29.1S 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 61.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 33.0S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 30.1S 61.7E.
01JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
578 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z
IS 22 FEET.//
0519122612 123S 534E 15
0519122618 117S 536E 20
0519122700 113S 543E 20
0519122706 117S 550E 25
0519122712 121S 557E 25
0519122718 125S 562E 25
0519122800 132S 576E 25
0519122806 134S 590E 25
0519122812 145S 604E 25
0519122818 159S 605E 25
0519122900 172S 607E 30
0519122906 181S 602E 35
0519122912 194S 598E 35
0519122918 203S 592E 35
0519123000 206S 588E 40
0519123006 205S 583E 45
0519123012 207S 582E 50
0519123012 207S 582E 50
0519123018 209S 582E 55
0519123018 209S 582E 55
0519123100 211S 580E 60
0519123100 211S 580E 60
0519123106 218S 582E 70
0519123106 218S 582E 70
0519123106 218S 582E 70
0519123112 226S 587E 70
0519123112 226S 587E 70
0519123112 226S 587E 70
0519123118 238S 593E 70
0519123118 238S 593E 70
0519123118 238S 593E 70
0520010100 253S 600E 70
0520010100 253S 600E 70
0520010100 253S 600E 70
0520010106 269S 605E 60
0520010106 269S 605E 60
0520010112 291S 611E 55
0520010112 291S 611E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 29.1S 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 61.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 33.0S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 30.1S 61.7E.
01JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 578
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD, EXPOSING A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 33KTS TO 60KTS
AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING. ANALYSES INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED
INTO AN AREA OF HIGH (>30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL (<25C)
SSTS. COOL DRY AIR HAS ALSO BEGUN TO WRAP INTO THE LLC FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CONCURRENTLY, TC 05S HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AS IT HAS ENTERED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU 12, IT WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A 50-KT STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 22 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 011210
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/01/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/01/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-CALVINIA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.1 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 22 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/02 AT 00 UTC:
32.9 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/02 AT 12 UTC:
36.4 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010635 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/4/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 01/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.9 S / 60.6 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 310 SE: 280 SO: 170 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 02/01/2020 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 02/01/2020 18 UTC: 37.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 03/01/2020 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010635 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/4/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 310 SE: 280 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/02 18 UTC: 37.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/03 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010635
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/4/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 01/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.9 S / 60.6 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 310 SE: 280 SO: 170 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 02/01/2020 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 02/01/2020 18 UTC: 37.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 03/01/2020 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

DEPUIS 00Z, LA STRUCTURE D'OEIL A COMPLETEMENT DISPARU SOUS L'EFFET
DU RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST (ESTIME A
20/25KT PAR LE CIMSS). L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST MAINTENANT CANTONNEE
AU QUADRANT SUD-EST ET LE CENTRE EST PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSE. LA PASSE
ASCAT DE 0359Z SUGGERE LA PRESENCE DE VENT FORCE OURAGAN DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST.

CALVINIA ACCELERE ET DANS LE RAPIDE ET EPAIS COURANT DE NORD-OUEST A
L'AVANT DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE: AVEC L'EFFACEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-EST, LE SYSTEME
VA ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG
AU SUD ET LA PERSISTANCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DANS LE
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE CALVINIA EST DESORMAIS HOSTILE A UN CREUSEMENT
TROPICAL A TOUT POINT DE VUE, AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT ET L'AIR SEC
ENVIRONNEMENTAL MAIS AUSSI LES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
INSUFFISANT. LE SYSTEME EST EN TRAIN DE COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. DEMAIN, LES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES ET
L'INTERACTION AVEC UN THALWEG DE SURFACE VONT ACHEVER LA TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE.

LE CMRS CYCLONE DE LA REUNION VOUS PRESENTE SES MEILLEURS VOEUX POUR
L'ANNEE 2020.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/4/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 310 SE: 280 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/02 18 UTC: 37.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/03 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

SINCE 00Z, THE EYE PATTERN VANISHED, UNDERGOING THE IMPACT OF THE
STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20/25KT ACCORDING TO
CIMSS. CONVECTION IS NOW RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND
THE CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED.0359Z SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CALVINIA HAS ACCELERATED IN THE DEEP AND FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYERS MID-LAT TROUGH. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING: WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-EAST, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES HELPED BY
A TRANSIENT TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
MID-TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

CALVINIA ENVIRONMENT IS NOW HOSTILE TO ANY DEEPENING, WITH THE STRONG
SHEAR AND THE DRY AIR MASS BUT ALSO WITH THE COLD WATERS BENEATH. THE
SYSTEM IS STARTING TO LOOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. TOMMOROW
BAROCLINIC PROCESSSES AND THE INTERACTION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH, WILL
ACHIEVE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

RSMC CYCLONE LA REUNION WISHES YOU A HAPPY NEW YEAR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 010620 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/01/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/01/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 18 UTC:
30.6 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 010620
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/01/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/01/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 18 UTC:
30.6 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/02 AT 06 UTC:
34.4 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 010300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 200101005827
2020010100 05S CALVINIA 006 01 155 16 SATL 015
T000 252S 0601E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD
100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 286S 0613E 060 R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 240 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 322S 0630E 055 R050 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
240 NE QD 260 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 356S 0655E 050 R050 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
270 NE QD 250 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 25.2S 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 010300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 25.2S 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.6S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 200101005827
2020010100 05S CALVINIA 006 01 155 16 SATL 015
T000 252S 0601E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 286S 0613E 060 R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 240 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 322S 0630E 055 R050 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 260 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 356S 0655E 050 R050 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 250 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 25.2S 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.6S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 32.2S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 35.6S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 60.4E.
01JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
0519122612 123S 534E 15
0519122618 117S 536E 20
0519122700 113S 543E 20
0519122706 117S 550E 25
0519122712 121S 557E 25
0519122718 125S 562E 25
0519122800 132S 576E 25
0519122806 134S 590E 25
0519122812 145S 604E 25
0519122818 159S 605E 25
0519122900 172S 607E 30
0519122906 181S 602E 35
0519122912 194S 598E 35
0519122918 203S 592E 35
0519123000 206S 588E 40
0519123006 205S 583E 45
0519123012 207S 582E 50
0519123012 207S 582E 50
0519123018 209S 582E 55
0519123018 209S 582E 55
0519123100 211S 580E 60
0519123100 211S 580E 60
0519123106 218S 582E 70
0519123106 218S 582E 70
0519123106 218S 582E 70
0519123112 226S 587E 70
0519123112 226S 587E 70
0519123112 226S 587E 70
0519123118 238S 593E 70
0519123118 238S 593E 70
0519123118 238S 593E 70
0520010100 252S 601E 70
0520010100 252S 601E 70
0520010100 252S 601E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 25.2S 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.6S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 32.2S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 35.6S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 60.4E.
01JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
343 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 15 NM
OBLONG EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY
PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE EIR ALSO REVEALS
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING CONVECTION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FALLS
BETWEEN KNES AND PGTW DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES OF T4.0-T4.5 (65-77 KTS).
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAKE THE
ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE OVERALL. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC
05S WILL TRACK POLEWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, AND WEAKEN DUE TO COOL SST AND HIGH VWS. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
POLEWARD, IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INITIAL POSITION, AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND HAVE COMPLETED ETT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010040 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/4/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 01/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.2 S / 60.2 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SO: 220 NO: 160
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 02/01/2020 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 02/01/2020 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 03/01/2020 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 03/01/2020 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 04/01/2020 00 UTC: 41.9 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010040 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/4/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 60.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SW: 220 NW: 160
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/02 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/03 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/03 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/04 00 UTC: 41.9 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010040
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/4/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 01/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.2 S / 60.2 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SO: 220 NO: 160
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 02/01/2020 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 02/01/2020 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 03/01/2020 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 03/01/2020 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 04/01/2020 00 UTC: 41.9 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

APRES AVOIR DISPARU VERS 17-18Z, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
REFORMEE VERS 21Z. ELLE A ETE ASSOCIEE A UN DT OSCILLANT ENTRE 4.0 ET
4.5. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES, LA CONFIGURATION DEVIENT MOINS BIEN
DEFINI AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE RECHAUFFANT. L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENU A 65 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK
DISPONIBLES.

CALVINIA ACCELERE ET EST ENTRAIN DE SE FAIRE CAPTURER PAR LE RAPIDE
ET EPAIS COURANT DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. PAS DE
CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE: AVEC L'EFFACEMENT DE LA
DORSALE AU SUD-EST, LE SYSTEME VA ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET LA PERSISTANCE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DANS LE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.

LE CISAILLEMENT EST EN HAUSSE (PRES DE 20 KT SELON LE CIMSS A 18Z)
MAIS S'ALIGNE MAINTENANT AVEC LE CAP DE LA TRAJECTOIRE. SON INFLUENCE
RESTE DONC POUR L'INSTANT MARGINALE. MALGRE UN ENVIRONNMENT
ATMOSPHERIQUE QUI VA RESTER ENCORE FAVORABLE PENDANT ENVIRON 12H,
CALVINIA EVOLUE MAINTENANT SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
INSUFFISANT. DANS CES CONDITIONS, UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT GRADUEL EST
ANTICIPE AVEC UNE EVOLUTION POST-TROPICALE ATTENDUE LA NUIT
PROCHAINE. LES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES PERMETTRONT ALORS AU SYSTEME DE
MAINTENIR ENCORE RELATIVEMENT DURABLEMENT DES VENTS FORTS.

LE CMRS CYCLONE DE LA REUNION VOUS PRESENTE SES MEILLEURS VOEUX POUR
L'ANNEE 2020.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/4/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 60.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SW: 220 NW: 160
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/02 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/03 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/03 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/04 00 UTC: 41.9 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

THE EYE PATTERN WAS ON / OFF OVERNIGHT WITH THE EYE RE-EMERGING
AROUND 21Z. ASSOCIATED DT NUMBERS HAVE OSCILLATED BETWEEN 4.0-4.5
DURING THAT TIME. RECENTLY, THE EYE PATTERN IS DETERIORATED AGAIN
WITH A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS HOLD AT 65
KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

CALVINIA HAS ACCELERATED AND IS BEING CAPTURED BY THE DEEP AND FAST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYERS MID-LAT TROUGH. NO CHANGE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING: WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH-EAST, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES
HELPED BY A TRANSIENT TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
MID-TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

THE SHEAR IS INCREASING (AROUND 20 KT AT 18Z ACCORDING CIMSS DATA)
BUT IS IN THE SAME DIRECTION THAT THE CURRENT MOTION. THUS ITS
INFLUENCE IS STILL MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT MAY STILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS,CALVINIA IS NOW MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COLD WATERS. UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS, CALVINIA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHOULD BE A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT. FROM THAT TIME, BAROCLINIC
PROCESS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.

RSMC CYCLONE LA REUNION WISH TO ALL ITS USERS A HAPPY NEW YEAR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 010024 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/01/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/01/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 60.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 12 UTC:
28.6 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 010024
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/01/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/01/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 60.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 12 UTC:
28.6 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/02 AT 00 UTC:
32.5 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
RSMC CYCLONE LA REUNION WISH YOU A HAPPY NEW YEAR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311837 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/4/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 31/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.8 S / 59.3 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SO: 220 NO: 160
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 01/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 02/01/2020 06 UTC: 34.3 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 02/01/2020 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 03/01/2020 06 UTC: 40.3 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311837 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/4/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/31 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 59.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SW: 220 NW: 160
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 34.3 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/02 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/03 06 UTC: 40.3 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311837
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/4/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 31/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.8 S / 59.3 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SO: 220 NO: 160
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 01/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 02/01/2020 06 UTC: 34.3 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 02/01/2020 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 03/01/2020 06 UTC: 40.3 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

ENTRE 14Z ET 17Z, CALVINIA A DEVELOPPE UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL
ASSOCIE A UN DT DE 4.5. DEPUIS LA CONFIGURATION EST MOINS NETTE.
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE AMSU-B DES FAUCHEES METOP-A ET B RECENTES
MONTRENT QUE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE EST ORGANISEE EN OEIL EN BANDE.
SUR LA BASE DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK MANUELLES (FMEE ET PGTW), CALVINIA
EST MAINTENANT ESTIMER AVOIR ATTEINT LE PREMIER STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE: AVEC L'EFFACEMENT
DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-EST, LE SYSTEME VA ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET LA PERSISTANCE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DANS LE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN CE QUI CONCERNE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE :
ACTUELLEMENT DANS UNE ZONE DE CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE, LE
SYSTEME PRESENTE UNE COURTE PLAGE D'INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE AU COURS
DE CETTE DERNIERE JOURNEE DE 2019. MALGRE UN ENVIRONNMENT
ATMOSPHERIQUE QUI VA RESTER ENCORE FAVORABLE PENDANT 12 A 24H,
CALVINIA EST ENTRAIN DE QUITTER LES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
SUFFISANT. DANS CES CONDITIONS, UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT GRADUEL EST
ANTICIPE AVEC UNE EVOLUTION POST-TROPICALE ATTENDUE DANS LA NUIT DU
1ER AU 02 JANVIER. MALGRE DES LATITUDES BIEN SUD, LA FIN DU PROCESSUS
D'EXTRA-TROPICALE DE CALVINIA N'ARRIVERA QUE TARDIVEMENT EN FIN DE
JOURNEE DE JEUDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/4/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/31 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 59.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SW: 220 NW: 160
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 34.3 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/02 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/03 06 UTC: 40.3 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z, CALVINIA HAS DEVOPPED AN EYE PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH A 4.5 DT-NUMBER. SINCE THAT TIME, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT. AMSU-B IMAGERY FROM RECENT METOP-B AND A,
REVEAL THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANISED IN A BANDING EYE PATTERN.
BASED ON CONGRUENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE,
CALVINIA IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING: WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES HELPED BY A TRANSIENT TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM.

NO CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING : CURRENTLY IN A LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AREA, THE SYSTEM HAS A SHORT WINDOW FOR
POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST DAY OF YEAR 2019. AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT MAY STILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,CALVINIA IS LEAVING THE WARM WATERS. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, CALVINIA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHOULD BE A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. IN SPITE OF THE
SOUTHERLY LATITUDES, THE END OF THE EXTRA-TROPICAL PROCESS WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 311829 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 31/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 59.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 06 UTC:
26.7 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 311829
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 31/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CALVINIA) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 59.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 06 UTC:
26.7 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 18 UTC:
30.4 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 311500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 191231131125
2019123112 05S CALVINIA 005 01 165 08 SATL 025
T000 225S 0584E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD
045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 248S 0596E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 264S 0603E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 240 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 280S 0609E 055 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
250 NE QD 270 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 317S 0626E 050 R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
270 NE QD 270 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 311500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.8S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 191231131125
2019123112 05S CALVINIA 005 01 165 08 SATL 025
T000 225S 0584E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 248S 0596E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 264S 0603E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 240 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 280S 0609E 055 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 270 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 317S 0626E 050 R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 270 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.8S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 26.4S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 28.0S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 31.7S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 58.7E.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
157 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.
//
0519122612 123S 534E 15
0519122618 117S 536E 20
0519122700 113S 543E 20
0519122706 117S 550E 25
0519122712 121S 557E 25
0519122718 125S 562E 25
0519122800 132S 576E 25
0519122806 134S 590E 25
0519122812 145S 604E 25
0519122818 159S 605E 25
0519122900 172S 607E 30
0519122906 181S 602E 35
0519122912 194S 598E 35
0519122918 203S 592E 35
0519123000 206S 588E 40
0519123006 205S 583E 45
0519123012 207S 582E 50
0519123012 207S 582E 50
0519123018 209S 582E 55
0519123018 209S 582E 55
0519123100 211S 580E 60
0519123100 211S 580E 60
0519123106 217S 582E 70
0519123106 217S 582E 70
0519123106 217S 582E 70
0519123112 225S 584E 70
0519123112 225S 584E 70
0519123112 225S 584E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.8S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 26.4S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 28.0S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 31.7S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 58.7E.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS AS INDICATED BY FEEDER BANDS THAT WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO THE CENTER THAT HAS MOMENTARILY PRODUCED AN EYE. THE EYE HAS
SINCE BECOME CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A FORWARD SLANT
CAUSED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T4.0/65KTS TO T4.5/77KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) NORTHWESTERLY VWS.
SSTS IN THE AREA HAVE COOLED TO 26C. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL NOW GRADUALLY ERODE
THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 36, IT WILL ENTER THE COLD
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND BY TAU 48,
WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 50-KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311210 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 31/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.7 S / 58.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 01/01/2020 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 02/01/2020 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 02/01/2020 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 03/01/2020 00 UTC: 38.1 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 03/01/2020 12 UTC: 40.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311210 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/31 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 58.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/02 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/03 00 UTC: 38.1 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/03 12 UTC: 40.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311210
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 31/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.7 S / 58.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 01/01/2020 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 02/01/2020 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 02/01/2020 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 03/01/2020 00 UTC: 38.1 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 03/01/2020 12 UTC: 40.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

INITIE IL Y A 6 HEURES, LE DEPLACEMENT DE CALVINIA VERS LE
SUD-SUD-EST EST CONFIRME. AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, UNE
ESQUISSE D'OEIL EST APPARUE SUR LES IMAGES VISIBLES. AU COURS DES
DERNIERS INSTANTS, LES BOUFFEES CONVECTIVES EN BORDURE DU CENTRE ONT
DE NOUVEAU MASQUE CETTE ESQUISSE D'OEIL. L'ANALYSE DVORAK MONTRE UNE
LEGERE INTENSIFICATION AVEC DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 60KT. LE SEUIL DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL N'EST PLUS TRES LOIN.

SUITE A L'ACCELERATION VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST PLUS IMPORTANTE QUE PREVUE
INITIALEMENT, LA PRESENTE TRAJECTOIRE A ETE ACCELEREE AU COURS DES
PREMIERES ECHEANCES PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE PREVISION. POUR LE
RESTE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT : AVEC L'EFFACEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU
SUD-EST, LE SYSTEME VA ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE
PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET LA PERSISTANCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DANS LE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN CE QUI CONCERNE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE :
ACTUELLEMENT DANS UNE ZONE DE FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME
PRESENTE UNE COURTE PLAGE D'INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE AU COURS DE
CETTE DERNIERE JOURNEE DE 2019. CES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIENT
SE DEGRADER A PARTIR DU 1ER EN RAISON DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET
DE LA PERTE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. DANS CES CONDITIONS, CALVINIA
DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT EN PLONGEANT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST,
AVANT D'ENTAMER UNE EVOLUTION POST-TROPICALE. MALGRE DES LATITUDES
BIEN SUD, LA TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE DE CALVINIA N'ARRIVERA DE
TARDIVEMENT EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE JEUDI, AVEC DES VENTS ENCORE FORTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311210
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/31 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 58.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/02 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/03 00 UTC: 38.1 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/03 12 UTC: 40.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

INITIATED 6 HOURS AGO, THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CALVINIA
IS CONFIRMED. IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, AN EYE SHAPE HAS APPEARED ON THE
VISIBLE DATA. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS AT THE
EDGE OF THE CENTRE HAVE AGAIN MASKED THIS EYE SHAPE. THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WITH WINDS AROUND 60KT. THE
THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT FAR AWAY.

AS A RESULT OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ACCELERATION
THAN INITIALLY FORECAST, THE PRESENT TRACK HAS BEEN ACCELERATED IN
THE FIRST TIME INTERVALS COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REST, NO CHANGE : WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST,
THE SYSTEM WILL BE SUCKED TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BY THE PASSAGE OF
A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE
IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

NO CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST : CURRENTLY IN A LOW WINDSHEAR
AREA, THE SYSTEM PRESENTS A SHORT RANGE OF POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE LAST DAY OF YEAR 2019. THESE ALTITUDE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FROM THE 1ST JANUARY DUE TO INCREASED
WINDSHEAR AND LOSS OF OCEAN POTENTIAL. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS,
CALVINIA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, BEFORE
BEGINNING A POST-TROPICAL EVOLUTION. IN SPITE OF THE SOUTHERLY
LATITUDES, THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OF CALVINIA WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY, WITH THE WINDS STILL STRONG.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 311157 RRA
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 31/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 58.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 00 UTC:
24.8 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 12 UTC:
28.1 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 311157
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 31/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 58.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 00 UTC:
24.8 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 12 UTC:
28.1 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
RAS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310619 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 31/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.4 S / 57.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 31/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 01/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 02/01/2020 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 02/01/2020 18 UTC: 36.7 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 03/01/2020 06 UTC: 39.7 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310619 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 57.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/31 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/02 18 UTC: 36.7 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/03 06 UTC: 39.7 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310619
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 31/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.4 S / 57.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 31/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 01/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 02/01/2020 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 02/01/2020 18 UTC: 36.7 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 03/01/2020 06 UTC: 39.7 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

DU FAIT DE SON ELOIGNEMENT DU RADAR DE LA REUNION, SON UTILISATION
POUR LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE N'EST PAS EFFICACE. CALVINIA A
MAINTENANT REPRIS SON DEPLACEMENT, POUR LE MOMENT LENT ET GLOBALEMENT
EN DIRECTION VERS LE SUD. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CDO PERMET UNE
ANALYSE DVORAK DE 4.0 LAISSANT ESTIMER DES VENT DE L'ORDRE DE 55KT.
LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0419UTC PERMET DE LOCALISER DES VENTS DE 50KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LES GUIDANCES DE TRAJECTOIRE : ELLES SUGGERENT
QU'AUJOURD'HUI LE SYSTEME PREND PROGRESSIVEMENT LA DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT AVEC L'EFFACEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-EST
QUI BLOQUAIT LE SYSTEME JUSQU'A PRESENT. PAR LA SUITE, LE SYSTEME VA
ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD ET LA PERSISTANCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO DANS LE NORD-EST
DU SYSTEME.

ACTUELLEMENT DANS UNE ZONE DE FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME
PRESENTE UNE COURTE PLAGE D'INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE AU COURS DE
CETTE DERNIERE JOURNEE DE 2019. CES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIENT
SE DEGRADER A PARTIR DU 1ER EN RAISON DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET
DE LA PERTE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. DANS CES CONDITIONS, CALVINIA
DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT EN PLONGEANT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST,
AVANT D'ENTAMER UNE EVOLUTION POST-TROPICALE SUIVIE D'UNE TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE JEUDI.

LE SYSTEME ENTAMANT SON ELOIGNEMENT DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA
REUNION, LA SITUATION VA PROGRESSIVEMENT S'AMELIORER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310619
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 57.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/31 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/02 18 UTC: 36.7 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/03 06 UTC: 39.7 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

BECAUSE OF ITS DISTANCE OF THE RADAR OF REUNION ISLAND, ITS USE FOR
LOCATING THE CENTRE IS NOT EFFECTIVE. CALVINIA HAS NOW RESUMED ITS
MOVEMENT, FOR THE MOMENT SLOW AND GENERALLY SOUTHWARD. THE CDO CLOUD
PATTERN ALLOWS A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 4.0 ALLOWING TO ESTIMATE WINDS
AROUND 55KT. THE 0419UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOWS TO LOCATE WINDS OF 50KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCES: THEY SUGGEST THAT TODAY THE SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY TAKING THE DIRECTION OF SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, ACCELERATING
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST THAT BLOCKED THE
SYSTEM UNTIL NOW. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL BE SUCKED TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE LATITUDES BY THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.

CURRENTLY IN A LOW WINDSHEAR AREA, THE SYSTEM PRESENTS A SHORT RANGE
OF POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST DAY OF YEAR 2019. THESE
ALTITUDE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FROM THE 1ST JANUARY
DUE TO INCREASED WINDSHEAR AND LOSS OF OCEAN POTENTIAL. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, CALVINIA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, BEFORE BEGINNING A POST-TROPICAL EVOLUTION FOLLOWED
BY AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE END OF THURSDAY.

AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND,
THE SITUATION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 310601 RRA
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 31/12/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 57.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 500 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/31 AT 18 UTC:
22.9 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 310601
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 31/12/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 57.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 500 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/31 AT 18 UTC:
22.9 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 06 UTC:
26.1 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
RAS=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 310300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 191231015014
2019123100 05S CALVINIA 004 01 225 03 SATL 030
T000 211S 0580E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 221S 0584E 065 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 242S 0596E 065 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 274S 0608E 060 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 230 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 311S 0623E 060 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
240 NE QD 270 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 374S 0683E 055 R050 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
240 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 210 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 310300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 58.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 191231015014
2019123100 05S CALVINIA 004 01 225 03 SATL 030
T000 211S 0580E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 221S 0584E 065 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 242S 0596E 065 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 274S 0608E 060 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 311S 0623E 060 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 270 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 374S 0683E 055 R050 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 210 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 58.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.2S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.4S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 31.1S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 37.4S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 58.1E.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
72 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.
//
0519122612 123S 534E 15
0519122618 117S 536E 20
0519122700 113S 543E 20
0519122706 117S 550E 25
0519122712 121S 557E 25
0519122718 125S 562E 25
0519122800 132S 576E 25
0519122806 134S 590E 25
0519122812 145S 604E 25
0519122818 159S 605E 25
0519122900 172S 607E 30
0519122906 181S 602E 35
0519122912 194S 598E 35
0519122918 203S 592E 35
0519123000 206S 588E 40
0519123006 205S 583E 45
0519123012 207S 582E 50
0519123012 207S 582E 50
0519123018 209S 582E 55
0519123018 209S 582E 55
0519123100 211S 580E 60
0519123100 211S 580E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 58.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.2S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.4S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 31.1S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 37.4S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 58.1E.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
72 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 05S HAS
MEANDERED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 302116Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS, HEDGED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND A 302105Z SATCON
ESTIMATE 54 KNOTS. TC 05S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 05S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05S IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS THE STR RE-
ORIENTS BY TAU 12 AND SLOWLY INTENSIFIES TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU
12. IN THE LONG TERM, TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 48,
TC 05S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS TIME, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS TC 05S
CONTINUES TO NAVIGATE WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310018 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 31/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 58.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 40 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 31/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 01/01/2020 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 02/01/2020 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 02/01/2020 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 03/01/2020 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/01/2020 00 UTC: 41.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0.

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310018 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 58.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/31 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/02 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/03 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/04 00 UTC: 41.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0.

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310018
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 31/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 58.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 40 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 31/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 01/01/2020 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 02/01/2020 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 02/01/2020 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 03/01/2020 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/01/2020 00 UTC: 41.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0.

LE CENTRE EST TOUJOURS SUIVI SUR LES RADARS DE MAURICE ET DE LA
REUNION. LE DEPLACEMENT TOUJOURS ASSEZ IRREGULIER, EST MAINTENANT
PERSISTANT EN DIRECION DU SUD-OUEST LENTEMENT. LE SYSTEME EST
ACTUELLEMENT DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE CE QUI EXPLIQUE
LE DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT ET IRREGULIER ACTUEL. UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE LOINTAINE EST ENCORE PRESENTE AU SUD-EST

LA MAJORITE DES GUIDANCES SUGGERENT QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PRENDRE LA DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST EN COURS DE
MATINEE EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT, LA DORSALE PRECITEE S'EFFACANT ET
LAISSANT LE SYSTEME ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE
PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD ET LA PERSISTANCE DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPO DANS LE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.

DANS UNE ZONE DE FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME A REUSSI A DEVELOPPE
UN OUTFLOW ENTRETENU PAR UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MARQUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. LES CONDITIONS DIVERGENTES EN ALTITUDE DEVRAIT ENCORE
S'AMELIORER AVANT DE SE DEGRADER A PARTIR DU 1ER EN RAISON DE LA
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA PERTE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE.
TOUTEFOIS COMPTE TENU DU MOUVEMENT LENT ACTUEL QUI POURRAIT AVOIR UN
IMPACT SUR LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET DE LA POSSIBLE INTERACTION AVEC
L'ILE MAURICE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE DELICATE.

MEME SI LE SYSTEME S'ELOIGNE MAINTENANT DE L'ILE MAURICE, LA
SITUATION DEMEURE PREOCCUPANTE EN RAISON DU DEPLACEMENT LENT DU
PHENOMENE. EN TERME DE PRECIPITATIONS, DES CUMULS IMPORTANTS SONT
PROBABLES. UNE SURCOTE DE 15-20 CM EST POSSIBLE SUR LES ZONES
EXPOSEES DES REGIONS SUD ET OUEST DE L'A LE. LES MAURICIENS SONT DONC
INVITES A RESTER A L'ECOUTE DES CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES ET A PRENDRE
TRES AU SERIEUX CETTE SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310018
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 58.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/31 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/02 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/03 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/04 00 UTC: 41.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0.

THE CENTER IS ALWAYS FIXED THANKS TO THE RADARS OF MAURITIUS AND LA
REUNION. THE FORWARD MOTION ALWAYS IRREGULAR, IS NOW PERSISTENT IN A
SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC
COL AT THE MID-LEVELS THUS THE VERY SLOW AND IRREGULAR MOTION. A
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE IS ALWAYS LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTH-EAST.

MAIN GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT TO SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH
SOUTH-EASTWARD DRIFT DURING THE MORNING ACCELERATING SLIGHTLY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND CALVINIA SHOULD BE TAKEN
AWAY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BY A PASSING TROUGH IN THE SOUTH AND
THE LASTING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR, CALVINIA HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP AN
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HELPED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH BEFORE DETERIORATING FROM
WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPGRADED AND
FOLLOW THE LAST AROME GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AND
THE VICINITY OF MAURITIUS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A TOUGH
ONE.

EVEN IF THE SYSTEM SEEMS NOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM MAURITIUS GIVEN THE
RECENT TREND, IT IS STILL A DANGEROUS SITUATION DUE TO THE SLOW
DEPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED.
STORM SURGE AT 15-20 CM ARE LIKELY ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTH-WEST
SHORES OF MAURITIUS. INHABITANTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW ADVICE FROM
OFFICIALS AND FOLLOW THIS SERIOUS SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 310009
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 31/12/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 58.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/31 AT 12 UTC:
22.1 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/01 AT 00 UTC:
24.6 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
RAS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301814 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 30/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 58.1 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 320 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 130 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 31/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 31/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 01/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 02/01/2020 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/01/2020 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2020 18 UTC: 40.9 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0.

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301814 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 58.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 320 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 130 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/31 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/31 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/02 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/03 18 UTC: 40.9 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0.

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301814
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 30/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 58.1 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 320 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 130 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 31/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 31/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 01/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 02/01/2020 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/01/2020 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2020 18 UTC: 40.9 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0.

LE CENTRE EST TOUJOURS SUIVI SUR LES RADARS DE MAURICE ET DE LA
REUNION, L'OEIL A TOUT RA CEMMENT DISPARU SUR LES IMAGE IR.
LE DEPLACEMENT TOUJOURS ASSEZ IRREGULIER, SEMBLE S'ORIENTER VERS UN
CAP MOYEN SUR LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES D'UN LENT SUD-OUEST.LE SYSTEME
EST ACTUELLEMENT DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE CE QUI
EXPLIQUE LE DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT ET IRREGULIER ACTUEL. UNE DORSALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE LOINTAINE SE RECONSTRUIT TRES TEMPORAIREMENT.
L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES SUGGERENT QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DERIVER EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST A SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 6
HEURES. MARDI, LA DORSALE PRECITEE S'EFFACE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG
AU SUD ET LA PERSISTANCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO DANS LE
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.

DANS UNE ZONE DE FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME A REUSSI A DEVELOPPE
UN OUTFLOW ENTRETENU PAR UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MARQUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. LES CONDITIONS DIVERGENTES EN ALTITUDE DEVRAIT ENCORE
S'AMELIORER CETTE NUIT ET DEMAIN AVANT DE SE DEGRADER A PARTIR DU 1ER
EN RAISON DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA PERTE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE. TOUTEFOIS COMPTE TENU DU MOUVEMENT LENT ACTUEL QUI
POURRAIT AVOIR UN IMPACT SUR LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET DE LA POSSIBLE
INTERACTION AVEC L'ILE MAURICE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE
DELICATE.

MEME SI UN IMPACT DIRECT SUR L'ILE MAURICE SEMBLE MAINTENANT PEU
PROBABLE AU VUE DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE, LA SITUATION DEMEURE
PREOCCUPANTE EN RAISON DU DEPLACEMENT LENT DU PHENOMENE. LE
RENFORCEMENT DES VENTS SERA TRIBUTAIRE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE CAR
LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT LOCALISES TRES PRES DU CENTRE. EN TERME
DE PRECIPITATIONS, DES CUMULS ADDITIONNELS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM / 24H
SONT PROBABLES. UNE SURCOTE DE 15-20 CM EST POSSIBLE SUR LES ZONES
EXPOSEES DES REGIONS SUD ET OUEST DE L'A LE. LES MAURICIENS SONT DONC
INVITES A RESTER A L'ECOUTE DES CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES ET A PRENDRE
TRES AU SERIEUX CETTE SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301814
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 58.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 320 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 130 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/31 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/31 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/02 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/03 18 UTC: 40.9 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0.

THE CENTER IS ALWAYS FIXED THANKS TO THE RADARS OF MAURITIUS AND LA
REUNION, THE EYE HAS VERY RECENTLY DISAPPEARED ON IR IMAGERY.
THE FORWARD MOTION WAS VERY SLOW AND IRREGULAR DURING THE PAST HOURS
WITH TROCHOIDAL PATTERN. THE 6 HOURS AVERAGE MOTION IS A SLOW
SOUTH-WESTWARDS DRIFT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC
COL AT THE MID-LEVELS THUS THE VERY SLOW AND IRREGULAR MOTION. ALL
GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT TO SUGGEST A WESTWARD TO SOUTH-WESTWARDS
DRIFT AS A TRANSCIENT RIDGE IS BUILDING FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TUESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND
CALVINIA SHOULD BE TAKEN AWAY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BY A PASSING
TROUGH IN THE SOUTH AND THE LASTING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR, CALVINIA HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP AN
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HELPED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH BEFORE DETERIORATING FROM
WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPGRADED AND
FOLLOW THE LAST AROME GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AND
THE VICINITY OF MAURITIUS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A TOUGH
ONE.

EVEN IF A DIRECT HIT SEEMS NOW UNLIKELY OVER MAURITIUS GIVEN THE
RECENT TREND, IT IS STILL A DANGEROUS SITUATION DUE TO THE SLOW
DEPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. WIND'S INCREASE WILL BE LINKED TO THE
FINAL TRACK AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED VERY
CLOSE TO THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL RAINS IN THE ORDER OF 100 MM / 24H
ARE POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE AT 15-20 CM ARE LIKELY ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH
AND SOUTH-WEST SHORES OF MAURITIUS. INHABITANTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW
ADVICE FROM OFFICIALS AND FOLLOW THIS SERIOUS SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 301808
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 30/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 58.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
15 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/31 AT 06 UTC:
21.5 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/31 AT 18 UTC:
22.9 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
RAS=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 301500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 191230135042
2019123012 05S CALVINIA 003 01 205 02 SATL 030
T000 207S 0582E 050 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 211S 0581E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 221S 0587E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 243S 0600E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 273S 0612E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 210 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 346S 0651E 055 R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
290 NE QD 270 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 58.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 301500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 20.7S 58.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 58.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.1S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 191230135042
2019123012 05S CALVINIA 003 01 205 02 SATL 030
T000 207S 0582E 050 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 211S 0581E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 221S 0587E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 243S 0600E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 273S 0612E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 346S 0651E 055 R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 270 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 58.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 58.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.4S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.5S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.4S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 31.1S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 37.7S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 58.7E.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
90 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
0519122612 123S 534E 15
0519122618 117S 536E 20
0519122700 113S 543E 20
0519122706 117S 550E 25
0519122712 121S 557E 25
0519122718 125S 562E 25
0519122800 132S 576E 25
0519122806 134S 590E 25
0519122812 145S 604E 25
0519122818 159S 605E 25
0519122900 172S 607E 30
0519122906 181S 602E 35
0519122912 194S 598E 35
0519122918 202S 592E 35
0519123000 206S 588E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 20.7S 58.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 58.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.1S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.1S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.3S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.3S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 34.6S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 58.2E.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AND
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FURTHERMORE, IT
SHOWS THAT TC 05S HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN CONTINUING WEST
TOWARDS MAURITIUS, SUPPORTED BY A 301302Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
50 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A 301145Z ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (43 KTS). TC 05S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). TC 05S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 12 AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60
KTS BY TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, A DEEP-LAYER STR DEVELOPS
TO THE EAST AND BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. IN THE LONG
TERM, TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 48, TC 05S WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOTABLY, THE GFS AND
GFS ENSEMBLE HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS.
THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE TURN. THE
PRIMARY OUTLIER, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKS TC 05S FURTHER WEST PRIOR
TO RECURVING TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. OUTSIDE OF THIS INSTANCE, THE
AVERAGE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS 20-30 NM, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301232 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 30/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.8 S / 58.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 320 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 130 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 31/12/2019 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 31/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 01/01/2020 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 02/01/2020 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/01/2020 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2020 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301232 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 320 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 130 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/31 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/31 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/01/02 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/03 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301232
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 30/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.8 S / 58.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 320 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 130 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 31/12/2019 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 31/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 01/01/2020 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 02/01/2020 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/01/2020 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2020 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

UN OEIL IRREGULIER S'EST FORME CET APRES-MIDI AU SEIN DU COEUR
CENTRAL TRES COMPACT. L'INTENSITE A ETE LEGEREMENT REHAUSSEE A 55 KT
SUR LA BASE DE L'ANALYSE DE DOVORAK EN PHASE AVEC UN SATCON VERS 10Z
A 50-55 KT EN VENTS MOYENS 10 MIN.

LE DEPLACEMENT A ETE TRES IRREGULIER AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES
AVEC UN MOUVEMENT TROCHOIDAL MARQUE. LE CAP MOYEN SUR LES 6 DERNIERES
HEURES EST UN LENT SUD-OUEST.LE SYSTEME EST ACTUELLEMENT DANS UNE
SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE CE QUI EXPLIQUE LE DEPLACEMENT TRES
LENT ET IRREGULIER ACTUEL. UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
LOINTAINE SE RECONSTRUIT TRES TEMPORAIREMENT. L'ENSEMBLE DES
GUIDANCES SUGGERENT QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DERIVER EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST OU DU SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12
HEURES. MERCREDI, LA DORSALE PRECITEE S'EFFACE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG
AU SUD ET LA PERSISTANCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO DANS LE
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.

DANS UNE ZONE DE FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME A REUSSI A DEVELOPPE
UN OUTFLOW ENTRETENU PAR UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MARQUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. LES CONDITIONS DIVERGENTES EN ALTITUDE DEVRAIT ENCORE
S'AMELIORER CETTE NUIT ET DEMAIN AVANT DE SE DEGRADER A PARTIR DU 1ER
EN RAISON DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA PERTE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE A ETE SIGNIFICATIVEMENT REVUE A
LA HAUSSE A LA BASE DE CES ELEMENTS EN SUIVANT LA PREVISION PLU
SAGRESSIVE DES RECENTES RUNS D'AROME. TOUTEFOIS COMPTE TENU DU
MOUVEMENT LENT ACTUEL QUI POURRAIT AVOIR UN IMPACT SUR LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE ET DE LA POSSIBLE INTERACTION AVEC L'ILE MAURICE, LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE DELICATE.

MEME SI UN IMPACT DIRECT SUR L'ILE MAURICE SEMBLE MOINS PROBABLE AU
VUE DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE, LA SITUATION DEMEURE PREOCCUPANTE. LE
RENFORCEMENT DES VENTS SERA TRIBUTAIRE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE CAR
LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT LOCALISES TRES PRES DU CENTRE. EN TERME
DE PRECIPITATIONS, DES CUMULS DE ADDITIONNELS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM /
24H SONT PROBABLES. UNE SURCOTE DE 15-20 CM EST POSSIBLE SUR LES
ZONES EXPOSEES DES REGIONS SUD ET OUEST DE L'A LE. LES MAURICIENS
SONT DONC INVITES A RESTER A L'ECOUTE DES CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES ET A
PRENDRE TRES AU SERIEUX CETTE SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301232
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 320 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 130 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/31 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/31 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/01/02 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/03 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

AN IRREGULAR EYE HAS FORMED ON VIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A
VERY COMPACT CDO. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED AT 55 KT BASED ON
DVORAK ANALYSIS ON LINE WITH A SATCON AT 50-55 KT (10 MIN WINDS)
AROUND 10Z.

THE FORWARD MOTION WAS VERY SLOW AND IRREGULAR DURING THE PAST HOURS
WITH TROCHOIDAL PATTERN. THE 6 HOURS AVERAGE MOTION IS A SLOW
SOUTH-WESTWARDS DRIFT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC
COL AT THE MID-LEVELS THUS THE VERY SLOW AND IRREGULAR MOTION. ALL
GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT TO SUGGEST A WESTWARD OR SOUTH-WESTWARDS
DRIFT AS A TRANSCIENT RIDGE IS BUILDING FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND
CALVINIA SHOULD BE TAKEN AWAY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BY A PASSING
TROUGH IN THE SOUTH AND THE LASTING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR, CALVINIA HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP AN
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HELPED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH BEFORE DETERIORATING FROM
WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPGRADED AND
FOLLOW THE LAST AROME GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AND
THE VICINITY OF MAURITIUS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A TOUGH
ONE.

EVEN IF A DIRECT HIT IS LESS LIKELY OVER MAURITIUS GIVEN THE RECENT
TREND, IT IS STILL A DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND'S INCREASE WILL BE
LINKED TO THE FINAL TRACK AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LOCALIZED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL RAINS IN THE ORDER OF
100 MM / 24H ARE POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE AT 15-20 CM ARE LIKELY ALONG
EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTH-WEST SHORES OF MAURITIUS. INHABITANTS ARE
URGED TO FOLLOW ADVICE FROM OFFICIALS AND FOLLOW THIS SERIOUS
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 301218
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 30/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
15 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/31 AT 00 UTC:
21.0 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/31 AT 12 UTC:
22.1 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
RAS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300710 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 58.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 560 SO: 320 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 190 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/12/2019 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 31/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 31/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 01/01/2020 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/01/2020 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2020 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300710 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 58.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 560 SW: 320 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 190 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/30 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/31 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/31 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/03 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300710
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/4/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 58.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 560 SO: 320 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 190 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/12/2019 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 31/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 31/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 01/01/2020 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/01/2020 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2020 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

CALVINIA A CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER CE MATIN. LA STRUCTURE EN BANDE
INCURVEE SE CONSOLIDE ET LES IMAGES RADAR DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE
RECENTES MONTRENT QU'UN PETIT OEIL EST ENTRAIN DE SE CONSTRUIRE AU
SEIN D'UN COEUR CENTRAL TRES COMPACT. L'INTENSITE INITIALE EST BASEE
SUR L'ESTIMATION MANUELLE DVORAK A 3.5 DU SAB ET FMEE.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME A REDRESSE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST DEPUIS 00Z. LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DONNEE EST UNE MOYENNE
SUR PLUSIEURS HEURES MAIS LE SYSTEME EST A NOUVEAU STATIONNAIRE SUR
LES DEUX DERNIERES HEURES A ENVIRON 70 KM A L'EST-SUD-EST DE MAURICE.
LE SYSTEME EST ACTUELLEMENT DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE CE
QUI EXPLIQUE LE DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT ET IRREGULIER ACTUEL. EN COURS
DE JOURNEE, UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE LOINTAINE SE
RECONSTRUIT TRES TEMPORAIREMENT. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES SUGGERENT
QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DERIVER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 12 HEURES. MERCREDI, LA DORSALE PRECITEE
S'EFFACE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD ET LA PERSISTANCE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO DANS LE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS IFS-AROME-GFS
BIAISEE VERS LA PREVISION GFS QUI EST LE MODELE QUI SEMBLE AVOIR
APPRENDE LE PLUS CORRECTEMENT L'EVOLUTION RECENTE DU SYSTEME

DANS UNE ZONE DE FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME A REUSSI A DEVELOPPE
UN OUTFLOW ENTRETENU PAR UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MARQUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. LES CONDITIONS DIVERGENTES EN ALTITUDE DEVRAIT ENCORE
S'AMELIORER CETTE NUIT ET DEMAIN AVANT DE SE DEGRADER A PARTIR DU 1ER
EN RAISON DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA PERTE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE A ETE SIGNIFICATIVEMENT REVUE A
LA HAUSSE A LA BASE DE CES ELEMENTS EN SUIVANT LA PREVISION PLU
SAGRESSIVE DES RECENTES RUNS D'AROME. TOUTEFOIS COMPTE TENU DU
MOUVEMENT LENT ACTUEL QUI POURRAIT AVOIR UN IMPACT SUR LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE ET DE LA POSSIBLE INTRACTION AVEC L'ILE MAURICE, LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE DELICATE.

LA TENDANCE ACTUELLE EST TRES MENANCANTE POUR L'ILE MAURICE QUI
POURRAIT VOIR LE SYSTEME CIRCULER TRES PRES OU SUR L'ILE PLUS TARD
DANS LA JOURNEE OU LA NUIT PROCHAINE. EN TERME DE PRECIPITATIONS, DES
CUMULS DE ADDITIONNELS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM / 24H SONT PROBABLES. LES
MAURICIENS SONT DONC INVITES A RESTER A L'ECOUTE DES CONSIGNES
OFFICIELLES ET A PRENDRE TRES AU SERIEUX CETTE SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300710
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 58.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 560 SW: 320 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 190 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/30 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/31 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/31 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/03 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

CALVINIA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING? THE CUURVED BAND
PATTERN HAS STRENGTHENED AND RADAR DATA FROM LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS
SHOW THAT A SMALL EYE IS BUILDING WITHIN THE COMPACT INNER-CORE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 3.5 FROM
SAB AND FMEE.

CALVINIA HAS CURVED WESTWARDS SINCE 00Z. THE CURRENT FORWARD MOTION
IS AN AVERAGE OVER SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE VERY LAST TREND IS
QUASI-STAT AT ABOUT 70 KM EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF MAURITIUS. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL AT THE MID-LEVELS THUS THE VERY
SLOW AND IRREGULAR MOTION. ALL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT TO SUGGEST A
WESTWARD DRIFT AS A TRANSCIENT RIDGE IS BUILDING FAR TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND
CALVINIA SHOULD BE TAKEN AWAY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BY A PASSING
TROUGH IN THE SOUTH AND THE LASTING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS BASED ON A GFS-IFS-AROME CONSENSUS BIASED TOWARDS GFS THAT WAS
GOOD TO SUGGEST THE RECENT TREND.

WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR, CALVINIA HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP AN
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HELPED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH BEFORE DETERIORATING FROM
WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPGRADED AND
FOLLOW THE LAST AROME GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AND
THE VICINITY OF MAURITIUS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A TOUGH
ONE.

CALVINIA SHOW NOW A DIRECT THREAT TO MAURITIUS AND THE SYSTEM COULD
MOVE DANGEROUSLY VERY CLOSE OR OVER MAURITIUS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINS IN THE ORDER OF 100 MM / 24H ARE POSSIBLE AND
INHABITANTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW ADVICE FROM OFFICIALS AND FOLLOW THIS
SERIOUS SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 300626
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/12/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 30/12/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 58.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 15
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 275 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/30 AT 18 UTC:
20.6 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/31 AT 06 UTC:
21.0 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
RAS=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 300300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 191230023217
2019123000 05S CALVINIA 002 01 225 05 SATL 030
T000 206S 0588E 035 R034 055 NE QD 180 SE QD 125 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 210S 0583E 040 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 214S 0581E 045 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 225S 0588E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 244S 0599E 055 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 311S 0634E 055 R050 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
260 NE QD 280 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 377S 0700E 045 R034 270 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 58.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 58.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0S 58.3E

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 300300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 58.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 58.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.4S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 58.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 58.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.4S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.5S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.4S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 31.1S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 37.7S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
 
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 58.7E.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND AND OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). FURTHERMORE, IT REVEALS THAT TC 05S HAS SLOWED DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION SUPPORTED BY A 300029Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE THAT SHOWS LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KTS) BY PGTW AND A 291730Z
METOP-A ASCAT PASS WHICH DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF 30-35 KT WINDS
COVERING THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 05S IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 05S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT SLOWLY
INTENSIFIES TO 45 KTS. AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IT WILL START TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A DEEP-LAYER STR THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST AND
WILL TRACK TC 05S SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CAUSING TC 05S TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 96. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNT OF TRACK UNCERTAINTY IS DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST AS THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE TRACK TC 05S DUE WEST
THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE MAKING A SHARP TURN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD.
OUTSIDE OF THIS INSTANCE, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND
310300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 191230023217
2019123000 05S CALVINIA 002 01 225 05 SATL 030
T000 206S 0588E 035 R034 055 NE QD 180 SE QD 125 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 210S 0583E 040 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 214S 0581E 045 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 225S 0588E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 244S 0599E 055 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 311S 0634E 055 R050 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 280 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 377S 0700E 045 R034 270 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 58.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 58.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.4S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.5S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.4S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 31.1S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 37.7S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 58.7E.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
90 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
0519122612 123S 534E 15
0519122618 117S 536E 20
0519122700 113S 543E 20
0519122706 117S 550E 25
0519122712 121S 557E 25
0519122718 125S 562E 25
0519122800 132S 576E 25
0519122806 134S 590E 25
0519122812 145S 604E 25
0519122818 159S 605E 25
0519122900 172S 607E 30
0519122906 181S 602E 35
0519122912 194S 598E 35
0519122918 202S 592E 35
0519123000 206S 588E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300024 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/4/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 58.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 560 SO: 320 NO: 80
34 KT NE: SE: 80 SO: 190 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/12/2019 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 31/12/2019 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 31/12/2019 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 01/01/2020 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/01/2020 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2020 00 UTC: 37.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300024 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/4/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 58.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 560 SW: 320 NW: 80
34 KT NE: SE: 80 SW: 190 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/30 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/31 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/31 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/02 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/03 00 UTC: 37.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300024
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/4/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 58.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 560 SO: 320 NO: 80
34 KT NE: SE: 80 SO: 190 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/12/2019 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 31/12/2019 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 31/12/2019 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 01/01/2020 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/01/2020 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2020 00 UTC: 37.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

LA PASSE ASCAT-A DE 1730Z MONTRAIT UNE STRUCTURE DE VENTS ENCORE TRES
ASSYMETRIQUE ET DES VENTS MAX DE 30/35KT CONCENTRES DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. AU COURS DES DERNIERES 4H, LA CONVECTION A COMMENCE
A REGAGNER LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD, PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA BAISSE
DE CISAILLEMENT ENVIRONNEMENTALE PRECEDEMMENT ATTENDUE, CE QUI
CORRESPOND A UNE AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE. L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE DU CMRS EST EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET
OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME A ORIENTE SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD-OUEST ET A RALENTIT, ALORS QU'IL COMMENCE A BUTER SUR UNE
DORSALE DE BASSE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE GLISSE AU SUD POUR LES
DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST MODEREE, LA
PLUPART PROPOSANT UNE LENTE BOUCLE A PROXIMITE EST DE MAURICE, A UNE
DISTANCE ENCORE IMPOSSIBLE A PRECISER. MERCREDI, LA DORSALE PRECITEE
S'EFFACE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD ET LA PERSISTANCE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO DANS LE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. ON NOTE EN
PARTICULIER UNE REPRISE DE CE MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST PLUS RAPIDE
POUR LE MODELE EUROPEEN QUE POUR LE MODELE AMERICAIN GFS.

L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AVEC NOTAMMENT L'AIR SEC DE HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIA ET LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST COMMENCE A FRANCHEMENT DIMINUER. AU COURS DE LA JOURNEE
D'AUJOURD'HUI LUNDI ET JUSQU'A MARDI MATIN, LE SYSTEME SE PLACE
PROGRESSIVEMENT SOUS L'AXE DU THAWLEG. LE CISAILLEMENT
ENVIRONNEMENTAL DEVRAIT AINSI FRANCHEMENT FAIBLIR MAIS LA PRESENCE
D'AIR SEC POURRAIT ENCORE RALENTIR QUELQUE PEU L'INTENSIFICATION AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 36H. LA QUASI-STATIONARITE ASSOCIEE A UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RELATIVEMENT MODESTE DEVRAIT AUSSI LIMITER
L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE. LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE EST
CEPENDANT ENVISAGE, EN COHERENCE AVEC LES DERNIERS RUNS DISPONIBLES.

DES MARDI APRES-MIDI, AVEC L'ARRIVA E D'UN NOUVEAU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE
DYNAMIQUE ET DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ASSOCIE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
COMMENCER A PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICALES. CELUI-CI POURRAIT ALORS MAINTENIR SON INTENSITE EN
PROFITANT DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES, TOUT EN S'EVACUANT VERS LE
SUD-EST.

CALVINIA EVOLUE ACTUELLEMENT A PROXIMITE DES MASCAREIGNES, LA BANDE
PLUVIEUSE PRINICPALE A COMMENCE A TOUCHER MAURICE. LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT APPORTER DES CUMULS DE PLUIES IMPORTANTS JUSQU'A MARDI. LA
POPULATION EST APPELLEE A SURVEILLER LA SITUATION TOUT EN RESTANT A
L'ECOUTE DES CONSIGNES DE SECURITE OFFICIELLES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300024
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/4/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 58.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 560 SW: 320 NW: 80
34 KT NE: SE: 80 SW: 190 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/30 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/31 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/31 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/02 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/03 00 UTC: 37.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

1730Z ASCAT-A SWATH SHOWED A STILL VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE,
WITH MAX WINDS OF 30/35 KT CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
OVER THE LAST 4 HOURS, CONVECTION BEGAN TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND EVENTUALLY COVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
PROBABLY THANKS TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THIS
REPRESENTS AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. CMRS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES.

OVER THE LAST HOURS, CALVINIA'S TRACK TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD AND SLOWED
DOWN, AS THE STORM BEGINS TO BUMP INTO LOW/MID LEVELS HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS SLIDING IN THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE MODEL
DISPERSION IS MODERATE, THE MAJORITY SUGGESTING A SLOW LOOP IN THE
EASTERN VICINITY OF MAURITIUS, AT A STILL UNCERTAIN DISTANCE.
WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONNED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND CALVINIA
SHOULD BE TAKEN AWAY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BY A PASSING TROUGH IN
THE SOUTH AND THE LASTING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. NOTE THAT THE START OF THIS
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS DELAYED FOR THE US MODEL (GFS) COMPARED TO
THE EURO MODEL (IFS).

THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS DRY AIR AND
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS CLEARLY CURRENTLY DECREASING.
FROM TODAY MONDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PLACED
UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SHOULD
THUS BECOME LOW BUT WITH DRY AIR STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RATHER SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 36H.
MOREOVER, THE SLOW MOTION ASSOCIATED TO RELATIVELY MODERATE OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT COULD LIMIT ALSO THE MAX INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE IS FORECASTED, CONSISTENTLY WITH THE LAST
AVAILABLE MODEL DATA.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WESTERLY SHEAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY BY BENEFITING FROM THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, AS
IT EVACUATES SOUTHEASTWARDS.

CALVINIA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED CLOSE TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, AND
THE MAIN RAINBAND HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT MAURITIUS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
STILL BRING SEVERE RAINFALL UNTIL TUESDAY. INHABITANTS OF THESE
ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION WHILE CHECKING
OFFICIAL SAFETY INFORMATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 300008
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/12/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 30/12/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 58.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 450 MN
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 275 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/30 AT 12 UTC:
20.8 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/31 AT 00 UTC:
21.2 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
RAS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291817 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/4/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 59.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 460 SO: 110 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SO: 60 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/12/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 30/12/2019 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 31/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 31/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 01/01/2020 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2020 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291817 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/4/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 59.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 460 SW: 110 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SW: 60 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/30 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/30 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/31 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/31 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/02 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291817
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/4/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 59.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 460 SO: 110 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SO: 60 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/12/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 30/12/2019 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 31/12/2019 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 31/12/2019 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 01/01/2020 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2020 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A PEU EVOLUE,
AVEC UNE CONVECTION ACTIVE MAIS REJETEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR
UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST OMNIPRESENT. L'IMAGERIE
VAPEUR D'EAU MONTRE ENCORE QUE L'AIR SEC OCCUPE ENCORE LARGEMENT LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION.

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME A ORIENTE SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD-OUEST, ALORS QU'IL COMMENCE A BUTER SUR UNE DORSALE DE
BASSE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE GLISSE AU SUD POUR LES DEUX
PROCHAINS JOURS. IL DEVRAIT EGALEMENT RALENTIR DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST MODEREE, LA PLUPART PROPOSANT
UNE LENTE BOUCLE A PROXIMITE EST DE MAURICE, A UNE DISTANCE ENCORE
IMPOSSIBLE A PRECISER. MERCREDI, LA DORSALE PRECITEE S'EFFACE ET LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE
PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD ET LA PERSISTANCE DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPO DANS LE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. LA REPRISE DE CE MOUVEMENT
VERS LE SUD-EST EST PLUS RAPIDE POUR LE MODELE EUROPEEN QUE POUR LE
MODELE AMERICAIN GFS, PROBABLEMENT A CAUSE DE SON INTENSIFICATION
PREVUE PLUS IMPORTANTE QUI FAIT MONTER LE FLUX DIRECTEUR SIMULE EN
MOYENNE TROPO OU LE FLUX EST MOINS RAPIDE.

LA PROXIMITE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AVEC NOTAMMENT L'AIR SEC DE HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIA ET LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST PERTURBE ENCORE L'ORGANISATION DU SYSTEME. DEMAIN LUNDI ET
MARDI MATIN, LE SYSTEME SE PLACE SOUS SON AXE TANDIS QUE LE THALWEG
SE COMBLE. LE CISAILLEMENT ENVIRONNEMENTAL DEVRAIT AINSI FRANCHEMENT
FAIBLIR MAIS LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DEVRAIT GENER L'INTENSIFICATION,
AINSI UN RENFORCEMENT PLUTOT MARGINAL EST ENVISAGE. A NOTER, LA
QUASI-STATIONARITE ASSOCIEE A UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RELATIVEMENT
MODESTE DEVRAIT AUSSI LIMITER L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE. MARDI APRES-MIDI,
AVEC L'ARRIVA E D'UN NOUVEAU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE DYNAMIQUE ET DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ASSOCIE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE
PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES. CELUI-CI
POURRAIT ALORS MAINTENIR SON INTENSITE VOIRE SE RENFORCER EN
PROFITANT DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES EN S'EVACUANT VERS LE SUD-EST.

ALORS QUE LES MODELES LES PLUS FIABLES SONT EN ACCORD POUR LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, IL EXISTE UNE PLUS GRANDE INCERTITUDE
CONCERNANT LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE MARQUEE PAR UNE DISPERSION
MODEREE.

CALVINIA EVOLUE ACTUELLEMENT A PROXIMITE DES MASCAREIGNES, APPORTANT
POTENTIELLEMENT DES CUMULS DE PLUIES IMPORTANTS JUSQU'A MARDI. LA
POPULATION EST APPELLEE A SURVEILLER LA SITUATION TOUT EN RESTANT A
L'ECOUTE DES CONSIGNES DE SECURITE OFFICIELLES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291817
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/4/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 59.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 460 SW: 110 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SW: 60 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/30 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/30 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/31 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/31 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/02 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CALVINIA'S CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE MUCH,
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEING CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
BY THE ENVIRONMENTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. WV IMAGES STILL SHOW
THAT DRY AIR LARGELY OCCUPIES THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

OVER THE LAST HOURS, CALVINIA'S TRACK TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD, AS THE
STORM BEGAN TO BUMP INTO LOW/MID LEVELS HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS SLIDING IN
THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO SLOW DOWN IN
THE NEXT HOURS. THE MODEL DISPERSION IS MODERATE, THE MAJORITY
SUGGESTING A SLOW LOOP IN THE EASTERN VICINITY OF MAURITIUS, AT A
STILL UNCERTAIN DISTANCE. WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONNED RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARDS AND CALVINIA SHOULD BE TAKEN AWAY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES
BY A PASSING TROUGH IN THE SOUTH AND THE LASTING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
START OF THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS DELAYED FOR THE US MODEL (GFS)
COMPARED TO THE EURO MODEL (IFS), PROBABLY BECAUSE OF A GREATER
FORECASTED INTENSIFICATION WHICH SIMULATES A HIGHER STEERING FLOW, AT
LEVELS WITH WEAKER ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ESPECIALLY UPPER LEVEL
TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS CURRENTLY STILL AFFECTING THE ORGANISATION OF THE
SYSTEM. FROM TOMORROW MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
PLACED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH, WHILE THE TROUGH SHOULD FILL UP. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SHOULD THUS BECOME LOW BUT WITH DRY AIR STILL
PRESENT IN THE AREA, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ONLY SLIGHTLY.
MOREOVER, THE SLOW MOTION ASSOCIATED TO RELATIVELY MODERATE OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT COULD LIMIT ALSO THE MAX INTENSITY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLY SHEAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OR EVEN STRENGTHEN
THANKS TO THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AS IT EVACUATES
SOUTHEASTWARDS.

WHILE THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF
TRACK FORECAST, THERE IS A BIGGER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE INTENSITY DUE
TO A BIGGER DISPERSION.

CALVINIA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED CLOSE TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, AND IT
CAN STILL POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE RAINFALL UNTIL TUESDAY.
INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
SITUATION WHILE CHECKING OFFICIAL SAFETY INFORMATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 291808
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 59.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 600 MN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/30 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/30 AT 18 UTC:
21.1 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
RAS=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 291500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 59.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 59.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.7S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.4S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 59.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 59.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.7S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.4S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.1S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 23.3S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.4S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 35.2S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 40.6S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 59.7E.
29DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 147 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP,
FLARING CONVECTION WITHIN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES OF
THE SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED
ON A 291202Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35
KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE A 290534Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS
WHICH DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF 30-35 KT WINDS AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. TC 05S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 05S IS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO
THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD. IN THE NEAR-TERM, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. FOLLOWING THIS, THE
SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS AROUND TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR TAU
72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A PASSING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH CAUSING TC 05S TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS
DEPICTING A RECURVE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE
VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. OF NOTE, GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM
TRACK TC 05S FURTHER SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO RECURVING BETWEEN TAU 24
AND 36. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE GALWEM,
UKMET, AND UKMET ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AS THESE APPEAR MORE
DYNAMICALLY ACCURATE AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE RECURVE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 290300).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291305 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/4/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 60.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 370 SO: 110 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SO: 60 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 30/12/2019 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 31/12/2019 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 31/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 01/01/2020 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2020 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291305 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/4/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 60.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 370 SW: 110 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SW: 60 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/30 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/30 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/31 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/31 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291305
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/4/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 60.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 370 SO: 110 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SO: 60 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/12/2019 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 30/12/2019 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 31/12/2019 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 31/12/2019 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 01/01/2020 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 01/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2020 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

LES DERNIERES DONNEES ASCAT DE 0530UTC, METTENT EN EVIDENCE LA FORTE
DISSYMETRIE DU SYSTEME AVEC DES VENTS DE 35KT LOCALEMENT 40KT DANS
DEMI CERCLE SUD-EST, EN CONSEQUENCE LE SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE.
AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PRROFONDE S'EST REFORMEE
A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN EPONSE A LA BAISSE
DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT.
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST, LA CONVECTION RESTE SURTOUT PERTURBEE PAR
PAR L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIE AU TALWEG PRESENT
DANS L'OUEST.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LES MODELES DISPONIBLES
PROPOSENT TOUS UNE DESCENTE RAPIDE EN DI2H SOUS L'INFLUENCE CONJUGUEE
D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE DE L'EQUATEUR ET SURTOUT DE LA FACE OUEST DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. LUNDI, LA DISPERSION AUGMENTE ALORS
QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR EN BUTANT SUR UNE DORSALE DE
BASSE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE GLISSE AU SUD. AINSI, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT A PROXIMITE DE MAURICE LUNDI ET MARDI.
CERTAINS MODELES PROPOSENT MEME UNE BOUCLE. MERCREDI, LA DORSALE
PRECITEE S'EFFACE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE ASPIRE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD ET LA PESISTANCE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO DANS LE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.

LA PROXIMITE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AVEC NOTAMMENT L'AIR SEC DE HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIA ET LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PERTURBER L'ORGANISATION DU SYSTEME AUJOURD'HUI
ENCORE. LUNDI ET MARDI MATIN, LE SYSTEME SE PLACE SOUS SON AXE TANDIS
QUE LE THALWEG SE COMBLE. LE CISAILLEMENT ENVIRONNEMENTAL FAIBLIT
FRANCHEMENT MAIS LE MANQUE DE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NE DEVRAIT PAS
PERMETTRE UN CREUSEMENT TRES IMPORTANT DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, LA
QUASI-STATIONARITE ASSOCIEE A UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RELATIVEMENT
MODESTE DEVRAIT AUSSI LIMITER L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE. MARDI APRES-MIDI,
AVEC L'ARRIVA E D'UN NOUVEAU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE DYNAMIQUE, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT CES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICAL. CELUI-CI POURRAIT ALORS SE RENFORCER EN PROFITANT
DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES TANDIS QU'IL S'A VACUE VERS LE SUD-EST.

ALORS QUE LES MODELES LES PLUS FIABLES SONT EN ACCORD POUR LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, CONCERNANT LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE, IL
EXISTE UNE PLUS GRANDE INCERTITUDE DU A LA GRANDE DISPERSION DANS LES
INTENSITES PREVUS PAR LES MODELES PRECITA S.

CE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER A PROXIMITE DES MASCAREIGNES DES LA NUIT
PROCHAINE ET DEMAIN, APPORTANT POTENTIELLEMENT DES CUMULS DE PLUIES
IMPORTANTS. LA POPULATION EST APPELLEE A DEBUTER DES MAINTENANT DES
PREPARATIFS SIMPLES TOUT EN RESTANT A L'ECOUTE DES CONSIGNES
OFFICIELLES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291305
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/4/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 60.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 370 SW: 110 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SW: 60 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/30 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/30 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/31 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/31 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

LAST ASCAT DATA OF 0530UTC, HIGHLIGHTS THE STRONG ASYMMETRY OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH WINDS OF 35KT LOCALLY 40KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CERCLE, SO THE HAS BEEN NAMED.
OVER THE LAST HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASE.
WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, CONVECTION REMAINS MAINLY PERTURBED
BY THE MID/HIGHT TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR.


IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A RAPID
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12H UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BOTH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND MAINLY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. MONDAY, THE DISPERSION INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS IT BUMPS INTO A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING
IN THE SOUTH. THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRACKING SLOWLY RATHER CLOSE
TO THE MAURITIUS ISLAND NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MODELS EVEN
FORECAST A LOOP VERY CLOSE TO MAURITIUS.
WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE TAKEN AWAY IN THE MID-LATITUDES BY A PASSING TROUGH AND THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE OF MIDDLE LEVEL IN THE NORTH-EAST.

TODAY, THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ESPECIALLY UPPER
LEVEL TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERN
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD DISTURB THE ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM.
FROM TOMORROW TO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PLACED UNDER
THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE TROUGH SHOULD FILL UP. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR SHOULD THUS BECOME LOW BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE THE SYSTEM SHOULDN'T DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY. MOREOVER, THE
SLOW MOTION ASSOCIATED TO RELATIVELY MODERATE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
COULD LIMIT ALSO THE MAX INTENSITY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A NEW DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT COULD
STRENGHTEN THANKS TO THE ASSOCIATED BAROLINIC PROCESSES.

THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AGREE WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT THERE IS
A BIGGER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE INTENSITY DUE TO THE BIGGER DISPERSION
FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST BY THE SAME RELIABLE MODELS.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOCATED CLOSE TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS AS SOON
AS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SEVERE RAINFALL.
INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO BEGIN RIGHT NOW SOME
BASIC PREPARATION WHILE MONITORING OFFICIAL INFORMATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291211
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 60.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 600 MN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/30 AT 00 UTC:
20.6 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/30 AT 12 UTC:
21.2 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
RAS=

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