Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGUPIT-20
in China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of Korea

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 39N 128E
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 300NM =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 39N 128E
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 300NM =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 38.6N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 43.4N 137.5E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 38.6N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 43.4N 137.5E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 38.0N, 124.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS AND STRONG VWS. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
THE KOREAN PENINSULA SOON. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 38.0N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 42.8N 135.9E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 38.0N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 42.8N 135.9E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 1000 HPA
AT 38.0N 124.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 40.9N 131.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 42.8N 135.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 37.2N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 42.1N 134.1E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 37.2N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 42.1N 134.1E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 36.4N, 122.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS AND STRONG VWS. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT09. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 36.4N 122.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 41.8N 133.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 36.4N 122.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 41.8N 133.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 1000 HPA
AT 36.4N 122.6E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 39.4N 127.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 41.8N 133.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 35.8N 122.0E FAIR
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 41.4N 132.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 35.8N 122.0E FAIR
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 41.4N 132.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 35.3N, 121.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT18. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 35.3N 121.5E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 41.2N 131.0E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 35.3N 121.5E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 41.2N 131.0E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 1000 HPA
AT 35.3N 121.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 38.5N 124.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 41.2N 131.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 34.7N 121.0E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 40.2N 129.4E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 34.7N 121.0E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 40.2N 129.4E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 33.9N, 120.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 33.9N 120.8E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 39.4N 128.0E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 33.9N 120.8E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 39.4N 128.0E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050000
WARNING 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 1000 HPA
AT 33.9N 120.8E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 36.5N 122.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 39.4N 128.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 33.4N 120.6E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 39.2N 126.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 061800UTC 42.9N 136.2E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 33.4N 120.6E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 39.2N 126.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 061800UTC 42.9N 136.2E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 32.4N, 120.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS CAUSED
IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED
FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 041800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 041800UTC 32.5N 120.4E
MOVEMENT N 24KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 32.4N 120.6E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 38.1N 124.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 061800UTC 42.9N 136.2E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 32.4N 120.6E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 38.1N 124.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 061800UTC 42.9N 136.2E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041800
WARNING 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 998 HPA
AT 32.4N 120.6E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 35.2N 121.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 38.1N 124.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 42.9N 136.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 31.3N 120.4E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 36.6N 123.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 061200UTC 40.9N 132.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 31.3N 120.4E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 36.6N 123.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 061200UTC 40.9N 132.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 30.7N, 120.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200804130235
2020080412 03W HAGUPIT 015 01 355 10 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 308N 1202E 025
T012 335N 1207E 025
T024 363N 1228E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 30.8N 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 120.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 36.3N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 120.3E.
04AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
71 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 221N1259E 35
0320080200 227N1251E 35
0320080206 232N1246E 40
0320080212 235N1243E 45
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080318 278N1211E 70
0320080318 278N1211E 70
0320080318 278N1211E 70
0320080400 289N1206E 45
0320080406 298N1203E 30
0320080412 308N1202E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 30.8N 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 120.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 36.3N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 120.3E.
04AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
71 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 041346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 041200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N) ONE
TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE, 45 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG
KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC
THREE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (36.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 041200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 041200UTC 30.6N 120.2E
MOVEMENT N 13KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 041800UTC 32.2N 119.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 30.7N 120.2E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 35.9N 122.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 061200UTC 40.9N 132.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 30.7N 120.2E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 35.9N 122.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 061200UTC 40.9N 132.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 998 HPA
AT 30.7N 120.2E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 33.4N 120.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 35.9N 122.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 40.9N 132.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 30.0N 120.2E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 35.2N 121.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 060600UTC 40.5N 130.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 992 HPA
AT 30.0N 120.2E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 32.7N 120.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 35.2N 121.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 30.0N 120.2E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 35.2N 121.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 060600UTC 40.5N 130.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGPUT) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 014
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 29.8N 120.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 29.8N 120.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.3N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 35.0N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 37.5N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 30.4N 120.3E.
04AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
104 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z,
050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200804071830
2020080406 03W HAGUPIT 014 01 350 10 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 298N 1203E 030
T012 323N 1202E 025
T024 350N 1214E 025
T036 375N 1240E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 014
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 29.8N 120.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 29.8N 120.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.3N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 35.0N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 37.5N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 30.4N 120.3E.
04AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
104 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z,
050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 221N1259E 35
0320080200 227N1251E 35
0320080206 232N1246E 40
0320080212 235N1243E 45
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080318 278N1211E 70
0320080318 278N1211E 70
0320080318 278N1211E 70
0320080400 288N1205E 45
0320080406 298N1203E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 29.3N, 120.2E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
REDUCTION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A
STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 040746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 040600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2004) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (29.5
N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (35.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
0000012800
74044

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 040600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 040600UTC 29.4N 120.3E
MOVEMENT NNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 041800UTC 32.2N 119.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 29.3N 120.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 34.9N 121.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 060600UTC 40.5N 130.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 29.3N 120.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 34.9N 121.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 060600UTC 40.5N 130.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 990 HPA
AT 29.3N 120.2E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 32.0N 120.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 34.9N 121.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 40.5N 130.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 29.0N 120.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 34.4N 120.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 060000UTC 38.8N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 070000UTC 43.5N 137.5E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040300
WARNING 040300.
WARNING VALID 050300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 29.0N 120.4E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 31.4N 119.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 34.4N 120.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 29.0N 120.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 34.4N 120.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 060000UTC 38.8N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 070000UTC 43.5N 137.5E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200804010332
2020080400 03W HAGUPIT 013 01 330 11 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 288N 1205E 045 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 311N 1200E 035 R034 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 337N 1203E 030
T036 366N 1226E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 28.8N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.1N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.7N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 36.6N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 120.4E.
04AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 221N1259E 35
0320080200 227N1251E 35
0320080206 232N1246E 40
0320080212 235N1243E 45
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080318 278N1211E 70
0320080318 278N1211E 70
0320080318 278N1211E 70
0320080400 288N1205E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 28.8N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.1N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.7N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 36.6N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 120.4E.
04AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY HAGUPIT IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 28.5N, 120.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
REDUCTION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, STRONG VWS AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 040146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 040000 UTC, TYPHOON HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (28.5 N) ONE TWO ZERO
POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC
THREE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (33.9 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 040000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 040000UTC 28.7N 120.6E
MOVEMENT NNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 041200UTC 31.1N 119.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
24HR
POSITION 050000UTC 33.7N 119.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 28.5N 120.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 33.7N 120.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 060000UTC 38.8N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 070000UTC 43.5N 137.5E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040000
WARNING 040000.
WARNING VALID 050000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 980 HPA
AT 28.5N 120.6E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 30.7N 119.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 33.7N 120.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 38.8N 127.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 43.5N 137.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 28.5N 120.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 33.7N 120.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 060000UTC 38.8N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 070000UTC 43.5N 137.5E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 032246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 032100 UTC, TYPHOON HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (28.2 N) ONE TWO ZERO
POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC
THREE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (33.2 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 28.2N 120.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 042100UTC 33.2N 119.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 051800UTC 38.0N 123.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 061800UTC 42.6N 135.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 032100
WARNING 032100.
WARNING VALID 042100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 980 HPA
AT 28.2N 120.8E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 30.5N 120.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 33.2N 119.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 28.2N 120.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 042100UTC 33.2N 119.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 051800UTC 38.0N 123.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 061800UTC 42.6N 135.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200803185125
2020080318 03W HAGUPIT 012 01 330 11 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 278N 1211E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 299N 1201E 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 323N 1199E 035 R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 348N 1210E 030
T048 374N 1244E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 27.8N 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 29.9N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.3N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 34.8N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 37.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 120.8E.
03AUG20. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
//
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 221N1259E 35
0320080200 227N1251E 35
0320080206 232N1246E 40
0320080212 235N1243E 45
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080318 278N1211E 70
0320080318 278N1211E 70
0320080318 278N1211E 70

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 27.8N 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 29.9N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.3N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 34.8N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 37.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 120.8E.
03AUG20. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 031946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 031800 UTC, TYPHOON HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N) ONE TWO ONE
POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC
THREE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (32.4 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 27.7N, 121.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 031800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 031800UTC 27.8N 121.1E
MOVEMENT NNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 040600UTC 29.9N 119.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 041800UTC 32.0N 119.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 27.7N 121.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 32.4N 119.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 051800UTC 38.0N 123.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 061800UTC 42.6N 135.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 27.7N 121.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 32.4N 119.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 051800UTC 38.0N 123.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 061800UTC 42.6N 135.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031800
WARNING 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 975 HPA
AT 27.7N 121.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 29.9N 120.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 32.4N 119.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 38.0N 123.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 42.6N 135.7E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 031646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 031500 UTC, TYPHOON HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE TWO ONE
POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC
THREE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (31.7 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 27.2N 121.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041500UTC 31.5N 119.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 051200UTC 36.3N 120.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 061200UTC 41.7N 132.0E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 975 HPA
AT 27.2N 121.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 29.2N 120.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 31.5N 119.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 27.2N 121.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041500UTC 31.5N 119.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 051200UTC 36.3N 120.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 061200UTC 41.7N 132.0E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200803125936
2020080312 03W HAGUPIT 011 01 310 09 SATL 015
T000 268N 1217E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 286N 1204E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 307N 1197E 050 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 010 NW QD
T036 331N 1199E 040 R034 040 NE QD 130 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 354N 1219E 030
T072 393N 1286E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 26.8N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 121.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 28.6N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.7N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.1N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 35.4N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 39.3N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 121.4E.
03AUG20. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 221N1259E 35
0320080200 227N1251E 35
0320080206 232N1246E 40
0320080212 235N1243E 45
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080306 262N1225E 65
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080312 268N1217E 75
0320080312 268N1217E 75

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 26.8N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 121.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 28.6N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.7N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.1N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 35.4N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 39.3N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 121.4E.
03AUG20. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 121.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 031346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 031200 UTC, TYPHOON HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE TWO ONE
POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (31.0 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 031200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 031200UTC 26.9N 121.7E
MOVEMENT NW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 040000UTC 28.6N 119.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 041200UTC 30.9N 119.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 26.8N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 31.1N 119.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 051200UTC 36.3N 120.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 061200UTC 41.7N 132.0E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 26.8N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 31.1N 119.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 051200UTC 36.3N 120.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 061200UTC 41.7N 132.0E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 980 HPA
AT 26.8N 121.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 28.8N 120.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 31.1N 119.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 36.3N 120.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 41.7N 132.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 031046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030900 UTC, TYPHOON HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (26.6 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT
ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (30.4 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 26.6N 122.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 30.3N 119.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 050600UTC 34.7N 119.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 060600UTC 40.7N 130.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 26.6N 122.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 30.3N 119.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 050600UTC 34.7N 119.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 060600UTC 40.7N 130.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 030900
WARNING 030900.
WARNING VALID 040900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 980 HPA
AT 26.6N 122.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 28.4N 120.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 30.3N 119.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200803071305
2020080306 03W HAGUPIT 010 01 325 16 SATL RADR 010
T000 263N 1225E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 282N 1212E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 304N 1203E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T036 326N 1203E 040 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 353N 1220E 030
T072 391N 1284E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 26.3N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.2N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.4N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.6N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 35.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 39.1N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 26.8N 122.2E.
03AUG20. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 221N1259E 35
0320080200 227N1251E 35
0320080206 232N1246E 40
0320080212 235N1243E 45
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080306 263N1225E 65
0320080306 263N1225E 65
0320080306 263N1225E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 26.3N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.2N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.4N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.6N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 35.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 39.1N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 26.8N 122.2E.
03AUG20. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 25.8N, 122.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72
IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 030600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 030600UTC 26.3N 122.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 031800UTC 27.7N 120.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 040600UTC 29.6N 119.2E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 041800UTC 32.0N 119.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 25.8N 122.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 29.5N 120.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 050600UTC 34.7N 119.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 060600UTC 40.7N 130.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 25.8N 122.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 29.5N 120.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 050600UTC 34.7N 119.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 060600UTC 40.7N 130.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030600
WARNING 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 980
HPA
AT 25.8N 122.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 27.4N 120.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 29.5N 120.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 34.7N 119.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 40.7N 130.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 030446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2004) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (25.4
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC
TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (29.9 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 25.3N 122.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 29.1N 120.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 050000UTC 34.3N 120.3E 105NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 030300
WARNING 030300.
WARNING VALID 040300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 985 HPA
AT 25.3N 122.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 27.0N 121.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 29.1N 120.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 25.3N 122.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 29.1N 120.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 050000UTC 34.3N 120.3E 105NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200803024043
2020080300 03W HAGUPIT 009 02 335 09 SATL RADR 030
T000 250N 1236E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 268N 1221E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 288N 1210E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 312N 1205E 040 R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 335N 1212E 035 R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 381N 1268E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 25.0N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 28.8N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.2N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.5N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 38.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 123.2E.
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 221N1259E 35
0320080200 227N1251E 35
0320080206 232N1246E 40
0320080212 235N1243E 45
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080300 250N1236E 60
0320080300 250N1236E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 25.0N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 28.8N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.2N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.5N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 38.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 123.2E.
03AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM
EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 123.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 030146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2004) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC
TWO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (29.2 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 030000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 030000UTC 25.0N 123.3E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 031200UTC 26.5N 121.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 040000UTC 28.4N 119.8E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
36HR
POSITION 041200UTC 30.8N 118.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 24.9N 123.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 28.6N 120.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 050000UTC 34.3N 120.3E 105NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 24.9N 123.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 28.6N 120.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 050000UTC 34.3N 120.3E 105NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 985 HPA
AT 24.9N 123.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 26.6N 121.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 28.6N 120.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 34.3N 120.3E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 022246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 022100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2004) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (28.3 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 022100
WARNING 022100.
WARNING VALID 032100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 985 HPA
AT 24.6N 123.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 26.5N 122.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 28.4N 120.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 24.6N 123.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM SOUTHEAST 30NM NORTHWEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 28.4N 120.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 041800UTC 33.5N 119.5E 105NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 24.6N 123.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM SOUTHEAST 30NM NORTHWEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 28.4N 120.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 041800UTC 33.5N 119.5E 105NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200802203825
2020080218 03W HAGUPIT 008 02 340 08 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 242N 1240E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 259N 1226E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 279N 1213E 050 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 301N 1204E 045 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 327N 1205E 035 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 378N 1260E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 24.2N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 25.9N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 27.9N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.1N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.7N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 37.8N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 123.6E.
02AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 147 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 221N1259E 35
0320080200 227N1251E 35
0320080206 232N1246E 40
0320080212 235N1243E 45
0320080218 242N1240E 50
0320080218 242N1240E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 24.2N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 25.9N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 27.9N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.1N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.7N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 37.8N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 123.6E.
02AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 147 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z,
031500Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) FINAL
WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 24.2N, 123.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION
OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE
ITS COURSE TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT36 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT18 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY
UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 021800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 021800UTC 24.1N 124.0E
MOVEMENT NW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 030600UTC 25.6N 122.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 031800UTC 27.5N 120.4E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 040600UTC 29.5N 119.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
48HR
POSITION 041800UTC 31.9N 118.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 24.2N 123.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 27.8N 120.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 041800UTC 33.5N 119.5E 105NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 24.2N 123.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 27.8N 120.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 041800UTC 33.5N 119.5E 105NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021800
WARNING 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 990 HPA
AT 24.2N 123.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 26.1N 122.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 27.8N 120.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 33.5N 119.5E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 021646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 021500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 021500
WARNING 021500.
WARNING VALID 031500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 996 HPA
AT 23.9N 124.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 25.7N 123.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 27.3N 121.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 23.9N 124.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031500UTC 27.3N 121.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 041200UTC 31.9N 120.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 051200UTC 37.5N 124.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 23.9N 124.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031500UTC 27.3N 121.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 041200UTC 31.9N 120.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 051200UTC 37.5N 124.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200802135733
2020080212 03W HAGUPIT 007 02 320 04 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 235N 1243E 045 R034 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 251N 1230E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 269N 1216E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 290N 1204E 045 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 314N 1196E 035
T072 360N 1229E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 23.5N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.1N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.9N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.4N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 36.0N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 124.0E.
02AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262
NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z
AND 031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) FINAL WARNING
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 221N1259E 35
0320080200 227N1251E 35
0320080206 232N1246E 40
0320080212 235N1243E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 23.5N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.1N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.9N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.4N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 36.0N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 124.0E.
02AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262
NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z
AND 031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 23.7N, 124.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE
ITS COURSE TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT36 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT18 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 021346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 021200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (23.6 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC
TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC
THREE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (31.4 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 021200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 021200UTC 23.7N 124.3E
MOVEMENT NNW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 030000UTC 25.2N 122.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 031200UTC 26.4N 121.3E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 040000UTC 28.5N 119.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 041200UTC 31.0N 118.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 23.7N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 27.1N 121.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 041200UTC 31.9N 120.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 051200UTC 37.5N 124.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 23.7N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 27.1N 121.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 041200UTC 31.9N 120.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 051200UTC 37.5N 124.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 996 HPA
AT 23.7N 124.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 25.5N 123.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 27.1N 121.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 31.9N 120.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 37.5N 124.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 021046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 020900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC
TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 23.4N 124.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 26.8N 121.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 040600UTC 30.5N 120.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 050600UTC 37.5N 122.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 060600UTC 41.5N 133.3E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 020900
WARNING 020900.
WARNING VALID 030900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 996 HPA
AT 23.4N 124.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 25.0N 123.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 26.8N 121.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 23.4N 124.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 26.8N 121.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 040600UTC 30.5N 120.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 050600UTC 37.5N 122.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200802071905
2020080206 03W HAGUPIT 006 02 315 07 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 232N 1246E 040 R034 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 244N 1235E 045 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 261N 1221E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T036 281N 1208E 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 304N 1198E 035
T072 351N 1220E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 23.2N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.4N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.1N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.1N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.4N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 35.1N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 124.3E.
02AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 221N1259E 35
0320080200 227N1251E 35
0320080206 232N1246E 40

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 23.2N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.4N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.1N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.1N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.4N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 35.1N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 124.3E.
02AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND
030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32
PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 23.1N, 124.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 020746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 020600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (23.1 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC
TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (26.0 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 020600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 020600UTC 23.0N 124.5E
MOVEMENT NW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 021800UTC 24.9N 122.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 030600UTC 26.1N 121.5E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 031800UTC 27.3N 120.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 040600UTC 29.5N 119.2E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
60HR
POSITION 041800UTC 31.8N 118.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 23.1N 124.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 26.3N 122.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 040600UTC 30.5N 120.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 050600UTC 37.5N 122.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 060600UTC 41.5N 133.3E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 23.1N 124.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 26.3N 122.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 040600UTC 30.5N 120.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 050600UTC 37.5N 122.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 998 HPA
AT 23.1N 124.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 24.4N 123.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 26.3N 122.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 30.5N 120.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 37.5N 122.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 41.5N 133.3E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 020446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2004) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 020300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2004) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC
TWO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (29.4 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 020300
WARNING 020300.
WARNING VALID 030300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 1000 HPA
AT 22.9N 124.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 23.9N 123.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 25.7N 122.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 22.9N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030300UTC 25.7N 122.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 040000UTC 29.6N 120.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 050000UTC 35.8N 121.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 060000UTC 40.3N 131.5E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 22.9N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030300UTC 25.7N 122.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 040000UTC 29.6N 120.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 050000UTC 35.8N 121.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200802022841
2020080200 03W HAGUPIT 005 02 300 12 SATL RADR 020
T000 226N 1250E 035 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 238N 1239E 040 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 254N 1228E 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 272N 1214E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 294N 1203E 040 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 336N 1209E 030
T096 383N 1270E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 22.6N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.8N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.4N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.2N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.4N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.6N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 38.3N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 124.7E.
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 220N1261E 35
0320080200 226N1250E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 22.6N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.8N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.4N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.2N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.4N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.6N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 38.3N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 124.7E.
02AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND
030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 22.6N, 125.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 020000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 020000UTC 22.6N 125.2E
MOVEMENT NNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 021200UTC 24.2N 123.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 030000UTC 25.6N 122.5E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 031200UTC 27.1N 121.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 040000UTC 29.6N 120.8E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
72HR
POSITION 050000UTC 35.4N 122.0E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
96HR
POSITION 060000UTC 39.5N 127.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 22.6N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 25.1N 123.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 040000UTC 29.6N 120.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 050000UTC 35.8N 121.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 060000UTC 40.3N 131.5E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 22.6N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 25.1N 123.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 040000UTC 29.6N 120.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 050000UTC 35.8N 121.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 1000 HPA
AT 22.6N 125.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 23.5N 124.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 25.1N 123.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 29.6N 120.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 35.8N 121.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 40.3N 131.5E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 22.3N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 24.9N 123.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 031800UTC 28.2N 121.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 041800UTC 34.1N 120.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 051800UTC 39.1N 126.4E 230NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 061800UTC 43.1N 138.8E 320NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 012100
WARNING 012100.
WARNING VALID 022100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 1002 HPA
AT 22.3N 125.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 23.5N 124.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 24.9N 123.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 22.3N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 24.9N 123.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 031800UTC 28.2N 121.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 041800UTC 34.1N 120.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200801203702
2020080118 03W HAGUPIT 004 02 315 08 SATL 025
T000 220N 1261E 035 R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 232N 1247E 040 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 247N 1236E 045 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 265N 1224E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 286N 1212E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 334N 1205E 035 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 387N 1274E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.2N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.7N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.6N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 33.4N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 38.7N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 125.7E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 214N1267E 30
0320080118 220N1261E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.2N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.7N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.6N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 33.4N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 38.7N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 125.7E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
04W (SINLAKU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 21.8N, 126.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, STRONG VWS
AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 011800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 2004 HAGUPIT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 011800UTC 22.0N 126.0E
MOVEMENT WNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 020600UTC 23.4N 124.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 021800UTC 24.9N 123.2E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 030600UTC 26.4N 121.9E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 031800UTC 28.4N 120.9E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 041800UTC 34.1N 121.0E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
96HR
POSITION 051800UTC 38.6N 126.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1004HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 21.8N 126.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 24.4N 123.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 031800UTC 28.2N 121.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 041800UTC 34.1N 120.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 051800UTC 39.1N 126.4E 230NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 061800UTC 43.1N 138.8E 320NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 21.8N 126.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 24.4N 123.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 031800UTC 28.2N 121.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 041800UTC 34.1N 120.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 011800
WARNING 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 1002 HPA
AT 21.8N 126.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 23.2N 124.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 24.4N 123.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 28.2N 121.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 34.1N 120.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 39.1N 126.4E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 43.1N 138.8E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 21.7N 126.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021500UTC 24.2N 124.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 031200UTC 27.3N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 041200UTC 33.0N 120.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 051200UTC 37.6N 124.3E 230NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 061200UTC 41.5N 133.6E 320NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) 1002 HPA
AT 21.7N 126.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 22.9N 125.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 24.2N 124.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 21.7N 126.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021500UTC 24.2N 124.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 031200UTC 27.3N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 041200UTC 33.0N 120.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200801133811
2020080112 03W HAGUPIT 003 02 305 11 SATL 040
T000 215N 1269E 030
T012 229N 1252E 035 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 244N 1242E 040 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 260N 1232E 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 281N 1220E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 327N 1207E 035 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 370N 1255E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 21.5N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.4N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.1N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 32.7N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 37.0N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 126.5E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
304 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z
AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNINGS
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30
0320080112 215N1269E 30

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 21.5N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.4N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.1N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 32.7N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 37.0N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 126.5E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
304 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z
AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 20.8N, 127.9E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(HAGUPIT) STATUS. TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 21.3N, 127.1E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 21.3N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 23.8N 124.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 031200UTC 27.3N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 041200UTC 33.0N 120.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 051200UTC 37.6N 124.3E 230NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 061200UTC 41.5N 133.6E 320NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 21.3N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 23.8N 124.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 031200UTC 27.3N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 041200UTC 33.0N 120.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2004 HAGUPIT (2004) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 21.3N 127.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 22.6N 125.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 23.8N 124.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 27.3N 122.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 33.0N 120.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 37.6N 124.3E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 41.5N 133.6E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200801071702
2020080106 03W THREE 002 02 315 15 SATL SYNP 045
T000 209N 1279E 030
T012 221N 1265E 035 R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 233N 1251E 040 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 247N 1239E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 264N 1227E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 316N 1209E 035 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 369N 1256E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.4N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.6N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 36.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 127.5E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
336 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z
AND 020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNINGS
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 185N1295E 25
0320080100 198N1290E 30
0320080106 209N1279E 30

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.4N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.6N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 36.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 127.5E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
336 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z
AND 020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 200801025605
2020080100 03W THREE 001 01 335 18 SATL 035
T000 200N 1288E 030
T012 213N 1274E 035 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 224N 1260E 040 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 237N 1250E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 252N 1239E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 295N 1211E 040 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 345N 1238E 030
T120 408N 1338E 025
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.3N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.4N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.7N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.2N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.5N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 34.5N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 40.8N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 128.4E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
394 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
0320073100 167N1309E 15
0320073106 170N1301E 15
0320073112 176N1296E 20
0320073118 184N1296E 20
0320080100 200N1288E 30

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/312121ZJUL2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.3N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.4N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.7N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.2N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.5N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 34.5N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 40.8N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 128.4E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
394 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 312130).//
NNNN

>