Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000637
Name PAWAN-19
From - To 03 Dec - 07 Dec
Exposed countries Somalia, Ethiopia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h Tropical storm
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (06 Dec 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 65 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 108 km/h 0.4 m 491 mm 0.5
GFS 97 km/h 0.3 m 583 mm 0.5
ECMWF 79 km/h 0.3 m 778 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Arabian Sea, Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa - Tropical Cyclones SIX and SEVEN (ECHO 04 Dec 2019)Wed, 04 Dec 2019 11:04

  • A new Tropical Cyclone named SIX formed over the southern Arabian Sea. On 4 December at 0:00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 920 km east of north Somalia coastal area, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (Tropical Storm).
  • SIX is forecast to continue moving west over the Sea toward the Horn of Africa as a Tropical Storm and it is expected to approach the coast of north Somalia on 7 December in the morning (UTC), with maximum sustained winds up to 65 km/h. Over the next 72 hours, moderate rain is forecast over north Somalia with locally heavy rain over coastal areas.
  • Meanwhile, another new Tropical Cyclone named SEVEN formed over the eastern Arabian Sea and started moving north far off the coast of southwestern India. On 4 December at 0:00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 530 km west of Karnataka State, with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (Tropical Storm).
  • SEVEN is forecast to continue moving offshore. Over the next 72 hours, moderate rain is forecast over south Gujarat and north Maharashtra States.
Somalia - Tropical Cyclone SIX (ECHO 05 Dec 2019)Thu, 05 Dec 2019 11:02

  • Tropical Cyclone SIX is moving west over the Indian Ocean, towards Puntland coast in Somalia. On 5 December at 0.00 UTC, its centre was approximately 450 km east of Bayla (north-eastern Somalia), with maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h (tropical storm).
  • SIX will continue west, approaching the coast of northern Somalia on the night of 6 December, with maximum sustained winds between 55-65 km/h.
  • Moderate to heavy rain are forecast over central-northern Somalia on 6-8 December. According to FAO, flash floods are likely to affect some regions including Mudug, Nugaal, Bari and Sanaag.
Somalia - Tropical Cyclone PAWAN update (ECHO 06 Dec 2019)Fri, 06 Dec 2019 11:07

  • Tropical cyclone PAWAN is moving west towards Puntland coast. On 6 December at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 350 km east of Eyl Town (Nugal Region, northeastern Somalia), with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (tropical storm).
  • PAWAN is forecast to move south-west approaching Puntland coast, and making landfall over Mudug Region in the early morning of 7 December as a tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds up to 55 km/h.
  • A tropical storm alert for northern Somalia has been issued by FAO-SWALIM on 6 December.
  • Heavy rains and strong winds are expected over the coast of Puntland from 6 December. Moderate to locally heavy rains are forecast to spread further inland, affecting central and northern regions of Somalia on 7-9 December.
Somalia - Tropical Cyclone PAWAN update Thu, 12 Dec 2019 11:01

  • The passage of Tropical Cyclone PAWAN over Bari and Nugaal regions of Puntland (north-eastern Somalia) brought heavy rainfall and flash floods, which resulted in casualties.
  • According to the latest report of UN OCHA, the number of fatalities has increased to 6, and 4,800 people remain displaced. At least 900 buildings have been destroyed, including 130 IDP shelters, and 4 main roads are damaged in Eyl, Bandarbayla, Caluula and Laasqoray districts.
  • The Government of Somalia has declared an emergency in affected areas, while humanitarian partners are providing assistance to the affected population.
  • Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast over parts of northern Somalia on 12-13 December.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Articles: 262 | About casualties: 36 | Last hour: 0

Military chopper evacuates guests in flooded South African hotelTue, 10 Dec 2019 12:40:00 +0100.

A military helicopter was deployed to rescue some 70 guests stranded in a hotel located in an upscale part of South Africa’s Guateng Province. Video footage uploaded to social media on Monday (December 9) shows vehicles being swept away by
...(more)
The other effects of the floodsTue, 10 Dec 2019 08:47:00 +0100.

News of floods, deaths and devastation: This is the new normal in the country for the past several weeks. Unfortunately, the latest prediction by the weatherman should make every Kenyan flinch. Reportedly there is no end in sight of the tor
...(more)
NASA tracking Tropical Storm 06A through Arabian SeaSun, 08 Dec 2019 02:42:00 +0100.

. by Rob Gutro , NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed over Tropical Storm Pawan or 06A on Dec. 5, 2019 as it was moving through the western Arabian Sea, spreading clouds as far northwest as Oman and Yeme
...(more)
Somalia: Somalia: Tropical Storm Pawan - Information bulletinFri, 06 Dec 2019 15:18:00 +0100.

The situation. Tropical Storm Pawan (previously TC06A) currently lies over the southwest Arabian Sea at around 470 km south-southeast of Socotra in Yemen. As Pawan turns and tracks towards Somalia, it is expected that the strength will inte
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (38), (2), INFORM (2),