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Orange Earthquake Alert in Pakistan

Summary

On 2/20/2009 3:48:51 AM UTC an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 and depth 26km has struck an very highly populated area in the Azad Kashmir Province Province (population: -0.1 million) in Pakistan. GDACS estimates the likelihood for need of international humanitarian intervention to be medium (Orange alert). This earthquake can have a medium humanitarian impact since the affected region is very highly populated and has medium vulnerability to natural disasters. The earthquake 94km from the city of Islamabad. The nearest populated places are Chakothi (15km), Hariala (11km), Maharaj Gund (6km), Amrui (13km). It is a mountainous region with a maximum altitude of 5097 m. Humanitarian Impact   Population vulnerability   Tsunami probability   Landslide probability   Nuclear radiation probability   Caution: this information is based on risk models. Whether international humanitarian aid is needed must be decided by an expert. This email report was automatically created or updated by a computer on: 2/20/2009 4:15:30 AM UTC (26 minutes after the event) Downloads: Word report, PDF report Explanation of alert calculation: Show The impact model combines magnitude (M), population within 100km (P) and vulnerability ECHO average score (V) using the formula: alertscore = max(M-4.5,0) * log10(max(P / 80000,0))^ 0.5 * max(V,0.5) ^ 1.5 / 3 The weighted product of magnitude, population and vulnerability (1.88) results in an alertscore of 1.11448722335005 Then alert is Red if alertscore>2, Orange if alertscore>1 and Green if alertscore<=1.

Google map   Population map Population Density near epicenter (people/km2). Image area: 6x4 decimal degrees (approx. 650x450km2). Earthquake epicentre: best estimate    previous estimates:

Earthquake Event

Geological map Characteristics for this report Information source World Data Centre for Seismology, Denver (NEIC) Link to source event report (us2009dhai) Magnitude 5.4 M Depth 26 km Location Geographic coordinates (latitude/longitude): 34.2487, 73.8526 Pakistan , Azad Kashmir Province Province (population: -99999). Seismic region: Pakistan. The earthquake happened in Pakistan , Azad Kashmir Province Province (population: -99999). , 94km from the city of Islamabad. The nearest populated places are Chakothi (15km), Hariala (11km), Maharaj Gund (6km), Amrui (13km). It is a mountainous region with a maximum altitude of 5097 m. Time 2/20/2009 3:48:51 AM (UTC, Universal Standard Time) 2/20/2009 8:44:16 AM (Estimated local solar time) Fri, 2/20/2009 04:48 CET (Brussels, Paris, Rome) Thu, 2/19/2009 22:48 EST (New York, Washington) Thu, 2/19/2009 19:48 PST (San Francisco, Los Angeles) Fri, 2/20/2009 11:48 AWST (Australian Western Standard Time)

Previous reports for this earthquake. Earthquake report Tsunami report Event Date/Time Lat/Lon Magnitude Depth (km) Source Publication Date/Time Delay 53244 2/20/2009 3:48:50 AM UTC 34.146, 73.943 5.7 18 NOAA (at00510173) 2/20/2009 4:07:01 AM UTC 18min 53245 2/20/2009 3:48:51 AM UTC 34.2487, 73.8526 5.4 26 NEIC (us2009dhai) 2/20/2009 4:15:30 AM UTC 26min

Earthquake Impact Details

Potentially affected People

The population in the area of this earthquake if 159 people/km². (Data source).

The earthquake occurred at 8h local time. At this time a day, more people are at work and therefore more vulnerable to collapsing office buildings. During traffic hours, people can be affected by collapsing bridges and other road infrastructure.

Damage

The affected region has low level of urban area (0.2%) and a high level of cultivated area (44.4%). In urban areas more damage can be expected than in cultivated or natural areas. (Data source)

Resilience and Vulnerability

Resilience is the capacity of the population to cope with a hazard. Since much of investments in earthquake preparedness and available funds for quick response is related to household income, the GDP per capita can be used as a rough indicator of resilience.

Pakistan has a GDP per capita of 507 PPP$ (Parity Purchasing Power Dollar, about 1 Euro) and is therefore part of the low level income countries. Therefore, the earthquake happened in an area of low resilience.

Based on the combination of 9 indicators, ECHO attributes Pakistan a medium vulnerability.

ECHO Intervention Priority Ranking for Pakistan
Overall situation
Human Development
Human Poverty
Exposure to Major Disasters
Natural Disasters
Conflicts
Humanitarian effects of population movement
Refugees
Internally Displaced People
Health and Nutrition
Undernourishment
Mortality rates
Donor contributions
Official Development assistance
Source ECHO Key: Bad - Medium - Good - No data

Exposure

Both conditions for survival and conditions for delivering aid strongly depend on the current weather and temperature. The following graphs show the current and forecast weather.

Current weather conditions and forecasts at earthquake location (lat: 34.2487 - long: 73.8526) (Data source).

More detailed observations at closest weather station (Muzaffarabad): WeatherByWeb - NOAA

Probability of Secondary effects

Landslides: The maximum slope in the area of the earthquake is 70.408% and the maximum altitude is 5097 m. Since this is a high slope, the risk of earthquake induced landslides is high. Note, however, that the slope data is not reliable on a local scale, while landslides depend very much on local topography, soil and meteorological conditions. More...

Critical infrastructure

The following critical infrastructure is nearby and could be affected by the earthquake:

• Nuclear power plants: There are no nuclear facilities nearby the epicenter.
• Hydrodams: The following hydrodam installations are near the epicenter: [None]

The distance to nuclear installations is evaluated based on a 1999 UN dataset containing the location of nuclear plants in the world. If plants are near and the earthquake magnitude is above 6.5, the alert is set to orange. Note that the location of plants is approximate with errors of up to 100km.

Getting there and away

The nearest civilian airport (Muzaffarabad) is at 33km from the epicenter. Other airports are: Gujrat (188km), Mandi Bahauddin (186km), Khewra (196km), Jammu Satwari (196km), Gurha Salim (154km), Udhampur (193km), Murid (179km), Mangla (135km), Rajaori (106km), Basal (167km), Fatehjang (137km), Qasim (108km), Islamabad International (99km), Campbellpore (147km), Rawalakot (45km), Kamra (140km), Awantipur (111km), Tarbela Dam (118km), Srinagar (90km), Risalpur (174km), Tarbela (94km), Mansehra (61km), Muzaffarabad (33km), Saidu Sharif (151km), Skardu (195km), Chilas (132km), Gilgit (191km)

Ports nearby are: [None]

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.

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