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Green Earthquake alert in Turkey

 

Green Earthquake Alert in Turkey

Summary

On 3/8/2010 2:32:34 AM UTC an earthquake of magnitude 6 and depth 12km has struck an highly populated area in the Elazig Province (population: 0.5 million) in Turkey. GDACS estimates the likelihood for need of international humanitarian intervention to be low (Green alert).

This earthquake can have a low humanitarian impact since the affected region is highly populated and has high resilience for natural disasters.

The earthquake 70km from the city of Elazig. The nearest populated places are Palu (20km), Asagilahan (5km), AKpazar (14km), Gocmezlez (16km), Akkilise (11km), Karakocan (10km), Kizilpinar (19km). It is a mountainous region with a maximum altitude of 3293 m.

Humanitarian Impact impact 
Population resilience vul 
Tsunami probability tsunami 
Landslide probability slope 
Nuclear radiation probability radiation 

Caution: this information is based on risk models. Whether international humanitarian aid is needed must be decided by an expert.

This report was automatically updated by a computer on: 3/9/2010 7:52:18 AM UTC (1 day 5 hours 19 minutes after the event)

Explanation of alert calculation: Show

Google map Population map
poplegendPopulation Density near epicenter (people/km2). Image area: 6x4 decimal degrees (approx. 650x450km2).
population map

Earthquake epicentre: best estimate eq_logo    previous estimates: eq_icon

Earthquake Event

Geological map
geological map

Characteristics for this report

Information source World Data Centre for Seismology, Denver (NEIC)
Link to source event report (us2010tpac)
PAGER report (2010tpac)
Magnitude 6 M
Depth 12 km
Location

Geographic coordinates (latitude/longitude): 38.8758, 39.9925
Turkey , Elazig Province (population: 540818).
Seismic region: Eastern Turkey.

The earthquake happened in Turkey , Elazig Province (population: 540818). , 70km from the city of Elazig. The nearest populated places are Palu (20km), Asagilahan (5km), AKpazar (14km), Gocmezlez (16km), Akkilise (11km), Karakocan (10km), Kizilpinar (19km).

It is a mountainous region with a maximum altitude of 3293 m.

Time time 3/8/2010 2:32:34 AM (UTC, Universal Standard Time)
3/8/2010 5:12:32 AM (Estimated local solar time)
Mon, 3/8/2010 03:32 CET (Brussels, Paris, Rome)
Sun, 3/7/2010 21:32 EST (New York, Washington)
Sun, 3/7/2010 18:32 PST (San Francisco, Los Angeles)
Mon, 3/8/2010 10:32 AWST (Australian Western Standard Time)

Previous reports for this earthquake.

Earthquake reportTsunami reportEvent Date/TimeLat/LonMagnitudeDepth (km)SourcePublication Date/TimeDelay
808833/8/2010 2:32:37 AM UTC38.79, 40.325.784EMSC3/8/2010 2:42:57 AM UTC10min
808843/8/2010 2:32:30 AM UTC38.92, 40.745.710EMSC3/8/2010 2:46:34 AM UTC14min
808853/8/2010 2:32:42 AM UTC38.513, 39.3446.211NOAA (at00801556)3/8/2010 2:49:58 AM UTC17min
808863/8/2010 2:32:31 AM UTC38.91, 40.75.510EMSC3/8/2010 2:50:00 AM UTC17min
808873/8/2010 2:32:33 AM UTC38.82, 40.055.92EMSC3/8/2010 2:55:41 AM UTC23min
808883/8/2010 2:32:35 AM UTC38.8865, 39.97375.910NEIC (us2010tpac)3/8/2010 2:58:50 AM UTC26min
809373/8/2010 2:32:35 AM UTC38.8522, 39.9495.910NEIC (us2010tpac)3/8/2010 7:48:20 AM UTC315min
811173/8/2010 2:32:35 AM UTC38.8522, 39.949610NEIC (us2010tpac)3/8/2010 4:43:35 PM UTC850min
812703/8/2010 2:32:34 AM UTC38.8758, 39.9925612NEIC (us2010tpac)3/9/2010 7:52:18 AM UTC1759min

Earthquake Impact Details

shakemap

Potentially affected People

The population in the area of this earthquake if 41 people/kmē. (Data source).

The earthquake occurred at 5h local time. At this time a day, more people are at home and therefore more vulnerable to collapsing residential buildings. During traffic hours, people can be affected by collapsing bridges and other road infrastructure.

Population Data
Radius (km) Population Density (people/kmē)
1 55  55 
2 1339  106 
5 5185  66 
10 16857  53 
20 61441  48 
50 326199  41 
100 1311275  41 
200 6783716  53 

Damage

The affected region has low level of urban area (0%) and a high level of cultivated area (49.2%). In urban areas more damage can be expected than in cultivated or natural areas. (Data source)

Radius (km)urban areascultivated areasother
200 0.05% 49.2% 50.74%
100 0.04% 32.95% 67%
50 0% 19.83% 80.16%
10 0% 17.45% 82.54%

Resilience and Vulnerability

Resilience is the capacity of the population to cope with a hazard. Since much of investments in earthquake preparedness and available funds for quick response is related to household income, the GDP per capita can be used as a rough indicator of resilience.

Turkey has a GDP per capita of 2964 PPP$ (Parity Purchasing Power Dollar, about 1 Euro) and is therefore part of the high level income countries. Therefore, the earthquake happened in an area of high resilience.

Based on the combination of 9 indicators, ECHO attributes Turkey a low vulnerability.

Exposure

Both conditions for survival and conditions for delivering aid strongly depend on the current weather and temperature. The following graphs show the current and forecast weather.

Current weather conditions and forecasts at earthquake location (lat: 38.8758 - long: 39.9925) (Data source).

Temperature chart currently not available. Try to refresh page.
Precipitation chart currently not available. Try to refresh page.
Cloud cover chart currently not available. Try to refresh page.

More detailed observations at closest weather station (Elazig): WeatherByWeb - NOAA

Probability of Secondary effects

slopelevel Landslides: The maximum slope in the area of the earthquake is 55.438% and the maximum altitude is 3293 m. Since this is a medium slope, the risk of earthquake induced landslides is medium. Note, however, that the slope data is not reliable on a local scale, while landslides depend very much on local topography, soil and meteorological conditions. More...

Critical infrastructure

The following critical infrastructure is nearby and could be affected by the earthquake:

The distance to nuclear installations is evaluated based on a 1999 UN dataset containing the location of nuclear plants in the world. If plants are near and the earthquake magnitude is above 6.5, the alert is set to orange. Note that the location of plants is approximate with errors of up to 100km.

Getting there and away

The nearest civilian airport (Elazig) is at 68km from the epicenter. Other airports are: Mardin (192km), Adiyaman (184km), Diyarbakir (111km), Batman (144km), Siirt (189km), Diyarbakir Northwest (96km), Malatya (162km), Malatya (172km), Borankoy (148km), Elazig (68km), Mus (145km), Mus West (129km), Erzincan (101km), Erzurum (157km), Hins (179km)

Ports nearby are: [None]

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.

 

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