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Green Tropical cyclone alert

Tropical cyclone HUBERT-10

Click for an interactive map Legend: areas affected by winds of 39mph (green), 58mph (orange) and 74mph (red); shaded area is uncertainty cone of forecasted cyclone path. Current storm status Analysis based on advisory number 2 for HUBERT-10, published on 3/10/2010 12:00 UTC The storm is: active Current postion: 49, -20.9 Basin: SWIndian Current strength: Tropical Storm Current maximum sustained wind speed: 17 m/s, 34 kt Report created on 3/10/2010 3:30:53 PM. How are impact levels calculated? For each track point, the population within zones affected by wind speeds of 39, 58 and 74 mph is calculated. If there are more than 100,000 people affected by hurricane strength winds and the cyclone is of Category 1 or 2 the impact level is set to Orange. If the storm Category is 3, 4 or 5 and affecting more than 100,000 people, the impact level is set to Red. If the storm Category is lower than 1 (Tropical Storm) and/or less than 100,000 people are affected by hurricane strength winds, impact level is always set to Green. Where can I find more information? Official advisories are issued by Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (see http://severe.worldweather.org/rsmcs.html for a list). These are compiled by the World Meteorological Organization: http://severe.worldweather.org/.  Track data compiled at global level is only available without official status. Examples are the IFA/SOLAR of Hawaii University and MetHaz of the University of Central Florida (based on commercial data product). Tropical Storm Risk (http://tropicalstormrisk.com) offers a leading resource for forecasting the risk from tropical storms worldwide, including modelled wind fields and rainfall. How does a tropical cyclone impact people? High winds. Tropical cyclone strong winds can have devastating effects on people outdoors, on mobile homes, and on unsound substandard structures. These effects hold true for all types of structures exposed to sustained winds in excess of 115 mph (Category 3 of Saffir-Simpson scale). Heavy rain. The thunderstorm activity in a tropical cyclone causes intense rainfall. Rivers and streams flood, roads become blocked, and landslides can occur. Storm surge. Abnormal rise in the water level caused by the wind and pressure forces of a tropical cyclone. Storm surge produces most of the flood damage and drowning associated with either the storms that make landfall or the ones that closely approach the coastline. The storm surge is considered to be the most dangerous tropical cyclone hazards, as nine out of ten hurricane-related deaths are caused by drowning. Tornado activity. The fast/broad rotation of a hurricane often spawns tornadoes. While these tornadoes are normally not as strong as their non-tropical counterparts, they can still cause tremendous damage.

Event time line

Event time line

Date and time (forecasted in italic, current between red lines)	10/3 0h	10/3 12h	11/3 0h	11/3 12h
Advisory number	1	2
Wind speed	TS	TS	TD	TD
Population in cyclone Category I (thousand)
Population in tropical storm (million)
Population vulnerable to storm surge (thousand)
Risk of wind damage
Affected cities

Impact details - Affected cities and critical infrastructure (advisory number: 2)

For each track point of the cyclone, a list of cities and critical infrastructure hit by high winds with speed bigger than hurricane strength is shown below. Click on the button to see the data. (* = Data obtained from official tropical storm advisories)

Track

	3/10/2010 12:00	2	-20.9, 49	TS (17 m/s)	23 m/s				Madagascar	Not near land
Forecasted observations
	3/11/2010 00:00	2	-21, 48.1	TD (15 m/s)	20 m/s				Madagascar	Not near land
	12:00	2	-21.1, 47.2	TD (15 m/s)	20 m/s				Madagascar	Not near land

Potential Rainfall for the next 6 hr (NOAA - Operational Satellite Derived Tropical Rainfall Potential)

Potential rainfall is calculated based on rainfall observed by several microwave sensors (currently AMSU, TRMM, SSMI and AMSRE). Observations are based on an ensemble approach, which allows for the generation of probabilistic forecasts of rainfall in addition to deterministic rainfall totals. Each eTRaP is made up of forecasts using observations from potentially several microwave sensors initialized at several observation times, and possibly using several different track forecasts. The diversity among the ensemble members helps to reduce the large (unknown) errors associated with a single-sensor, single-track TRaP. The large number of perturbations leads to ensembles with many members, allowing probability forecasts to be issued with good precision and reliability.

The image below shows the 6h rainfall estimates associated with the bulletin of 3/10/2010 12:00:00 PM. Note that more recent TRaP estimates can be available on the NOAA eTRaP website.

See more details for HUBERT-10 on the NOAA website.

Logistics information

Below is a list of airports that are selected according to their suitability for cargo plane landing. The criteria considered are runway paving and length (source: Aircraft Charter World). Always check runway conditions beforehand.

For details on cargo facilities and other facilities of these airports, please check http://www.azworldairports.com. Click on the IATA code for details on airlines serving an airport.

About the data

The information on storm characteristics is taken from a web service provided by the Pacific Disaster Center, which processes the official advisory bulletins.

JRC calculates areas affected by high winds (wind buffers at 39, 58 and 74mph). This is done using the maximum reported wind radius (maximum of 4 quadrants) or, in case no wind radii are provided, through a regression analysis based on historical data. JRC also calculates the area affected by storm surge as areas below 5m within 10km from the coastline. This is based on SRTM data (for elevation) and Global Discovery (for coastline).

Sources for data on critical infrastructure are: JRC NUMAS database (nuclear plants), ESRI (hydro dams, 1996), Global Discovery (airports, ports and cities).

Population data is from LandScan 2007.

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.

Information related to the track has been collected from official bulletins distributed by regional tropical cyclones monitoring authorities by the Pacific Disaster Center. The impact analysis is performed by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission.

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