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Orange Tropical cyclone alert

 

Tropical cyclone FENGSHEN-08

map
Legend: areas affected by winds of 39mph (green), 58mph (orange) and 74mph (red); shaded area is uncertainty cone of forecasted cyclone path.

Current storm status

Analysis based on advisory number 29 for FENGSHEN-08, published on 6/25/2008 12:00 UTC

  • The storm is: not active
  • Current postion: 113.5, 23.29
  • Basin: NWPacific
  • Current strength: Tropical Depression
  • Current maximum sustained wind speed: 15 m/s, 30 kt

Report created on 8/7/2009 12:45:02 PM.

How are impact levels calculated?
Where can I find more information?
How does a tropical cyclone impact people?

Summary impact analysis

Affected Population

Up to 29.5 million people can be affected by wind speeds of hurricane strength or above. In addition, 2.48 million people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.

Affected Country (provinces) (population)

Philippines (Western Visayas) (5393000), Philippines (Bicol) (3910000), Philippines (Central Luzon) (6199000), Philippines (National Capital Region) (7929000), Philippines (Southern Tagalog) (8266000), Philippines (Eastern Visayas) (3055000).

Affected Cities

Estimated arrival time (UTC)Wind speed (km/h)Distance (km)NameProvinceCountryCity Class (1 to 6)
6/21/2008 19:4514259ManilaNational Capital RegionPhilippines1
19:4514261Quezon CityNational Capital RegionPhilippines2
22:4513339BaliuagCentral LuzonPhilippines3
22:4513336PulilanCentral LuzonPhilippines3
22:0013546MalolosCentral LuzonPhilippines3
19:4514258CaviteCavite CityPhilippines3
20:1514054NaicSouthern TagalogPhilippines3
6/20/2008 21:3016734KaliboWestern VisayasPhilippines3
06:3013738BabatñgonLeytePhilippines3
07:0013845BarugoLeytePhilippines3
07:4514044CarigaraLeytePhilippines3
06:0013643TaclobanTacloban CityPhilippines3
03:0013335GuiuanEastern VisayasPhilippines3
6/22/2008 01:4512625AngelesCentral LuzonPhilippines3
00:0012934San FernandoCentral LuzonPhilippines3

Affected Critical Infrastructures

No nuclear plants affected

Airports

Estimated arrival time (UTC)Wind speed (km/h)Distance (km)NameIATA CodeCountryTypeRunway
6/21/2008 19:0014462Ninoy Aquino InternationalMNLPhilippinesInternational
19:4514258Sangley Point ABSGLPhilippinesMilitary
16:0014965Fernando AB PhilippinesMilitary
10:0016069MarinduqueMRQPhilippinesDomestic
01:0017253RomblonTBHPhilippinesLocal or private
6/20/2008 09:0014244CalbayogCYPPhilippinesDomestic
21:3016734Kalib0KLOPhilippinesDomestic
19:0016240RoxasRXSPhilippinesDomestic
06:0013642Daniel Z RomualdezTACPhilippinesDomestic
02:1513239Guiuan PhilippinesLocal or private
6/22/2008 02:1512522Clark ABCRKPhilippinesInternational
6/21/2008 10:0016070Pinamalayan PhilippinesLocal or private
13:4515270Pagbilao Grande Island PhilippinesLocal or private
6/20/2008 04:0013438Borongan PhilippinesLocal or private
16:4515747Sicogon IslandICOPhilippinesLocal or private
6/21/2008 00:0017241Caticlan MalayMPHPhilippinesDomestic
08:1516573Wasig PhilippinesLocal or private
14:1515166Lucena PhilippinesLocal or private
6/20/2008 09:0014235Biliran Natl PhilippinesLocal or private
07:0013835Catbalogan PhilippinesLocal or private

Ports

Estimated arrival time (UTC)Wind speed (km/h)Distance (km)NameCountry
6/21/2008 15:0015166AntimonanPhilippines
15:3015071BatangasPhilippines
6/20/2008 04:0013434BoronganPhilippines
6/21/2008 13:4515271Calapan / BatangasPhilippines
6/20/2008 06:3013740CatbaloganPhilippines
6/21/2008 19:4514257CavitePhilippines
10:0016064GasanPhilippines
19:4514261ManilaPhilippines
03:0017264Romblon IslandPhilippines
15:3015073TabangoaPhilippines
6/20/2008 06:0013643TaclobanPhilippines
6/21/2008 15:3015073MaubanPhilippines
14:1515173SiainPhilippines
13:0015372CatanauanPhilippines
13:0015367General LunaPhilippines
13:4515266UnisanPhilippines
11:1515669Port BalancanPhilippines
11:1515666Santa CruzPhilippines
20:1514056NavotasPhilippines
10:0016066PinamalayanPhilippines
02:1517260OdionganPhilippines
6/20/2008 03:0013339Gen MacarthurPhilippines
03:0013335GuiuanPhilippines
06:3013738TalaloraPhilippines
09:0014241LeytePhilippines
09:0014240CalubianPhilippines
19:0016242Port CapizPhilippines
22:4517043PandanPhilippines
09:3014345San IsidroPhilippines
09:0014240CalbayogPhilippines
6/21/2008 09:0016370BongabongPhilippines

Dams

Estimated arrival time (UTC)Wind speed (km/h)Distance (km)NameRiverFIPS CountryVolume
6/21/2008 21:0013851 AngatRP1

Event time line

Event time line
Date and time
(forecasted in italic, current between red lines)
18/6
12h
18/6
18h
19/6
0h
19/6
6h
19/6
12h
19/6
18h
20/6
0h
20/6
6h
20/6
12h
21/6
0h
21/6
6h
21/6
12h
21/6
18h
22/6
0h
22/6
6h
22/6
12h
22/6
18h
23/6
0h
23/6
6h
23/6
12h
23/6
18h
24/6
0h
24/6
6h
24/6
12h
24/6
18h
25/6
0h
25/6
6h
25/6
12h
26/6
0h
Advisory number12345678911121314151617181920212223242526272829
Wind speedTDTSTSTSTSIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITSTSTSTSTSTSTSTSTSTSTDTD
Population in cyclone Category I (thousand)2841967882132897472932839019341
Population in tropical storm (million)138121111353836323½1643322648
Population vulnerable to storm surge (thousand)16201571005051621341416
Risk of wind damagealertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcoloralertcolor
Affected citiesdowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndowndown

Impact details - Affected cities and critical infrastructure (advisory number: 29)

For each track point of the cyclone, a list of cities and critical infrastructure hit by high winds with speed bigger than hurricane strength is shown below. Click on the button to see the data. (* = Data obtained from official tropical storm advisories)

Track
alertcolordate time
UTC*
advisory
number*
coords*wind speed*wind gusts*Population in
tropical storm
Population in
hurricane
Population vulnerable
to storm surge
countryimpact report
alertcolor
6/18/2008 12:00
19.4, 132.9
TD (12 m/s)
17 m/s
Not near land
alertcolor
18:00
29.69, 131.9
TS (17 m/s)
23 m/s
Not near land
alertcolor
6/19/2008 00:00
39.8, 131.1
TS (23 m/s)
28 m/s
Not near land
alertcolor
06:00
410.19, 130
TS (23 m/s)
28 m/s
Not near land
alertcolor
12:00
510.4, 128.69
TS (25 m/s)
33 m/s
Not near land
alertcolor
18:00
610.7, 127.6
I (33 m/s)
41 m/s
1.8 million
Philippines
alertcolor
6/20/2008 00:00
711.1, 126.5
I (36 m/s)
43 m/s
3.15 million
0.28 million
16.21 thousand
Philippines
alertcolor
06:00
811.5, 125.3
I (38 m/s)
46 m/s
8.35 million
1.96 million
0.2 million
Philippines
alertcolor
12:00
911.9, 124.1
I (41 m/s)
51 m/s
12.22 million
0.88 million
57.12 thousand
Philippines
alertcolor
6/21/2008 00:00
1111.8, 122.3
II (48 m/s)
59 m/s
11.03 million
1.32 million
0.1 million
Philippines
alertcolor
06:00
1212.2, 122.3
II (48 m/s)
59 m/s
11.03 million
0.97 million
50.31 thousand
Philippines
alertcolor
12:00
1313, 121.9
II (43 m/s)
54 m/s
35.18 million
7.29 million
0.51 million
Philippines
alertcolor
18:00
1413.9, 121.5
I (41 m/s)
51 m/s
38.63 million
28.39 million
2.13 million
Philippines
alertcolor
6/22/2008 00:00
1514.8, 120.9
I (36 m/s)
43 m/s
36.02 million
19.34 million
1.41 million
Philippines
alertcolor
06:00
1615.4, 120.4
I (33 m/s)
41 m/s
32.68 million
Philippines
alertcolor
12:00
1716.7, 119.5
I (33 m/s)
41 m/s
3.98 million
Philippines
alertcolor
18:00
1817.1, 118.5
I (33 m/s)
41 m/s
Not near land
alertcolor
6/23/2008 00:00
1917.2, 117.6
TS (28 m/s)
36 m/s
Not near land
alertcolor
06:00
2017.8, 116.9
TS (28 m/s)
36 m/s
Not near land
alertcolor
12:00
2118.2, 116.7
TS (28 m/s)
36 m/s
Not near land
alertcolor
18:00
2218.5, 116.3
TS (28 m/s)
36 m/s
Not near land
alertcolor
6/24/2008 00:00
2319.6, 115.8
TS (28 m/s)
36 m/s
0.42 million
China
alertcolor
06:00
2420.5, 115.5
TS (25 m/s)
33 m/s
16.47 million
China
alertcolor
12:00
2521.4, 115
TS (25 m/s)
33 m/s
43.03 million
China
alertcolor
18:00
2622.2, 114.9
TS (25 m/s)
33 m/s
32.46 million
China
alertcolor
6/25/2008 00:00
2723.1, 114.3
TS (23 m/s)
28 m/s
26.73 million
China
alertcolor
06:00
2823.1, 113.8
TS (20 m/s)
25 m/s
48.5 million
China
alertcolor
12:00
2923.3, 113.5
TD (15 m/s)
20 m/s
Not near land
Forecasted observations
alertcolor
6/26/2008 00:00
2923.8, 113.1
TD (10 m/s)
15 m/s
Not near land

Potential Rainfall for the next 24 hr (NOAA - Operational Satellite Derived Tropical Rainfall Potential)

Potential rainfall is calculated based on rainfall observed by several microwave sensors (currently AMSU, TRMM, SSMI and AMSRE). Observations are based on an ensemble approach, which allows for the generation of probabilistic forecasts of rainfall in addition to deterministic rainfall totals. Each eTRaP is made up of forecasts using observations from potentially several microwave sensors initialized at several observation times, and possibly using several different track forecasts. The diversity among the ensemble members helps to reduce the large (unknown) errors associated with a single-sensor, single-track TRaP. The large number of perturbations leads to ensembles with many members, allowing probability forecasts to be issued with good precision and reliability.

map

See more details for FENGSHEN-08 on the NOAA website.

Logistics information

Below is a list of airports that are selected according to their suitability for cargo plane landing. The criteria considered are runway paving and length (source: Aircraft Charter World). Always check runway conditions beforehand.

For details on cargo facilities and other facilities of these airports, please check http://www.azworldairports.com. Click on the IATA code for details on airlines serving an airport.

No airports found nearby with paved runways over 8000 feet (Source: Aircraft Charter World, Global Discovery)

About the data

The information on storm characteristics is taken from a web service provided by the Pacific Disaster Center, which processes the official advisory bulletins.

JRC calculates areas affected by high winds (wind buffers at 39, 58 and 74mph). This is done using the maximum reported wind radius (maximum of 4 quadrants) or, in case no wind radii are provided, through a regression analysis based on historical data. JRC also calculates the area affected by storm surge as areas below 5m within 10km from the coastline. This is based on SRTM data (for elevation) and Global Discovery (for coastline).

Sources for data on critical infrastructure are: JRC NUMAS database (nuclear plants), ESRI (hydro dams, 1996), Global Discovery (airports, ports and cities).

Population data is from LandScan 2007.

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.

PDCLogo JRCLogo Information related to the track has been collected from official bulletins distributed by regional tropical cyclones monitoring authorities by the Pacific Disaster Center. The impact analysis is performed by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission.

 

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