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provides near real-time alerts about natural disasters around the world
and tools to facilitate response coordination, including media monitoring, map catalogues and Virtual On-Site
Operations Coordination Centre.
Legend: areas affected by winds of 39mph (green), 58mph (orange) and 74mph (red); shaded area is uncertainty cone of forecasted cyclone path.
Current storm status
Analysis based on advisory number 25 for NARGIS-08, published on 5/3/2008 12:00 UTC
The storm is: not active
Current postion: 97.5, 18.29
Basin: NorthIndian
Current strength: Tropical Storm
Current maximum sustained wind speed: 20 m/s, 39 kt
Report created on 8/6/2009 6:41:07 PM.
How are impact levels calculated?
For each track point, the population within zones affected by wind speeds of 39, 58 and 74 mph is calculated.
If there are more than 100,000 people affected by hurricane strength winds and the cyclone is of Category 1 or 2 the impact level is set to Orange.
If the storm Category is 3, 4 or 5 and affecting more than 100,000 people, the impact level is set to Red.
If the storm Category is lower than 1 (Tropical Storm) and/or less than 100,000 people are affected by hurricane strength winds, impact level is always set to Green.
Track data compiled at global level is only available without official
status. Examples are the
IFA/SOLAR
of Hawaii University and MetHaz of
the University of Central Florida (based on commercial data product). Tropical
Storm Risk (http://tropicalstormrisk.com)
offers a leading resource for forecasting the risk from tropical storms
worldwide, including modelled wind fields and rainfall.
How does a tropical cyclone impact people?
High winds. Tropical cyclone strong winds
can have devastating effects on people outdoors, on mobile homes,
and on unsound substandard structures. These effects hold true for
all types of structures exposed to sustained winds in excess of 115
mph (Category 3 of Saffir-Simpson scale).
Heavy rain. The thunderstorm activity in a tropical
cyclone causes intense rainfall. Rivers and streams flood, roads
become blocked, and landslides can occur.
Storm surge. Abnormal rise in the water level caused
by the wind and pressure forces of a tropical cyclone. Storm surge
produces most of the flood damage and drowning associated with
either the storms that make landfall or the ones that closely
approach the coastline. The storm surge is considered to be the most
dangerous tropical cyclone hazards, as nine out of ten
hurricane-related deaths are caused by drowning.
Tornado activity. The fast/broad
rotation of a hurricane often spawns tornadoes. While these
tornadoes are normally not as strong as their non-tropical
counterparts, they can still cause tremendous damage.
Summary impact analysis
Affected Population
Up to 7.03 million people can be affected by wind speeds of hurricane strength or above. In addition, 1.82 million people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.
For each track point of the cyclone, a list of cities and critical infrastructure hit by high winds with speed bigger than hurricane strength is shown below. Click on the button to see the data. (* = Data obtained from official tropical storm advisories)
Up to 0.47 million people can be affected by wind speeds of hurricane strength or above. In addition, 0.24 million people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.
Up to 6.7 million people can be affected by wind speeds of hurricane strength or above. In addition, 1.76 million people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.
Up to 3.92 million people can be affected by wind speeds of hurricane strength or above. In addition, 0.47 million people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.
Potential Rainfall for the next 24 hr (NOAA - Operational Satellite Derived Tropical Rainfall Potential)
Potential rainfall is calculated based on rainfall observed by several microwave sensors (currently AMSU, TRMM, SSMI and AMSRE).
Observations are based on an ensemble approach, which allows for the generation of probabilistic forecasts of rainfall in addition to
deterministic rainfall totals. Each eTRaP is made up of forecasts using observations from potentially several microwave sensors
initialized at several observation times, and possibly using several different track forecasts. The diversity among the ensemble
members helps to reduce the large (unknown) errors associated with a single-sensor, single-track TRaP. The large number of
perturbations leads to ensembles with many members, allowing probability forecasts to be issued with good precision and reliability.
Below is a list of airports that are selected according to their suitability for cargo plane landing.
The criteria considered are runway paving and length (source: Aircraft Charter World). Always check runway conditions beforehand.
For details on cargo facilities and other facilities of these airports, please check http://www.azworldairports.com.
Click on the IATA code for details on airlines serving an airport.
No airports found nearby with paved runways over 8000 feet (Source: Aircraft Charter World, Global Discovery)
About the data
The information on storm characteristics is taken from a web service provided
by the Pacific Disaster Center, which processes
the official advisory bulletins.
JRC calculates areas affected by high winds (wind buffers at 39, 58 and
74mph). This is done using the maximum reported wind radius (maximum of 4
quadrants) or, in case no wind radii are provided, through a regression analysis
based on historical data. JRC also calculates the area affected by storm surge
as areas below 5m within 10km from the coastline. This is based on
SRTM data (for elevation) and Global
Discovery (for coastline).
Sources for data on critical infrastructure are: JRC NUMAS database
(nuclear plants), ESRI (hydro dams, 1996),
Global Discovery (airports, ports and cities).
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information
is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without
alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or
loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
Information related to the track has been collected from official
bulletins distributed by regional tropical cyclones monitoring authorities by
the Pacific Disaster Center. The impact analysis is performed by the Joint Research
Center of the European Commission.
Joint Initiative of the United Nations and the European Commission --
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