Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for PATRICIA-15
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PATRICIA-15 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population 410 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 333 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1 m (23 Oct 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 333 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 333 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

333 km/h Current Max.

Up to 180000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Oct 2015 15:00 157 2.7 million No people Mexico
Green 2 20 Oct 2015 21:00 157 7.7 million No people Mexico
Green 3 21 Oct 2015 03:00 157 8.4 million No people Mexico
Orange 4 21 Oct 2015 09:00 157 4.6 million 1.4 million Mexico
Orange 5 21 Oct 2015 15:00 148 6.5 million 970 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 21 Oct 2015 21:00 157 3.1 million 280 thousand Mexico
Red 7 22 Oct 2015 03:00 185 8.2 million 300 thousand Mexico
Orange 8 22 Oct 2015 09:00 204 10.1 million 490 thousand Mexico
Red 9 22 Oct 2015 15:00 213 5.3 million 600 thousand Mexico
Red 10 22 Oct 2015 18:00 222 7 million 580 thousand Mexico
Red 11 22 Oct 2015 21:00 241 8.6 million 600 thousand Mexico
Red 12 23 Oct 2015 03:00 231 8.2 million 290 thousand Mexico
Red 13 23 Oct 2015 05:30 296 8.2 million 280 thousand Mexico
Red 14 23 Oct 2015 09:00 333 7.8 million 180 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Oct 2015 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.3, -94.4
GREEN
2 20 Oct 2015 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.2, -94.8
GREEN
3 21 Oct 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.1, -95.3
GREEN
4 21 Oct 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, -96
GREEN
5 21 Oct 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.9, -97.5
GREEN
6 21 Oct 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 13.1, -99.5
GREEN
7 22 Oct 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 13.5, -100.5
GREEN
8 22 Oct 2015 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 14.3, -102.3
GREEN
9 22 Oct 2015 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.9, -103.8
GREEN
10 22 Oct 2015 18:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 15, -104
GREEN
11 22 Oct 2015 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 15.4, -104.6
GREEN
12 23 Oct 2015 03:00 Category 5 259 410000 people no people 16.2, -105.1 Mexico
GREEN
13 23 Oct 2015 05:30 Category 5 296 220000 people no people 16.5, -105.3 Mexico
GREEN
14 23 Oct 2015 09:00 Category 5 324 1.5 million people no people 17, -105.5 Mexico
RED
14 23 Oct 2015 18:00 Category 5 333 7.1 million people 180000 people 18.8, -105.4 Mexico
GREEN
14 24 Oct 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 111 1.4 million people no people 21.7, -104.2 Mexico
GREEN
14 24 Oct 2015 18:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 24.5, -102.5 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Cuitzmala, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2015 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 24 Oct 2015 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Oct 2015 23:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  1.0
24 Oct 2015 00:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.4
24 Oct 2015 00:00 Chamela Mexico  0.3
24 Oct 2015 00:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.3
21 Oct 2015 15:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2015 23:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2015 15:00 El Roble Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2015 00:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2015 05:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2015 00:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2015 01:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2015 23:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2015 04:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2015 16:00 Costa Rica Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2015 05:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2015 06:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1