Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARTY-15
in Mexico
01 Oct 2015 09 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARTY-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 46 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 130 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to 440000 people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm 		Population in
Cat. 1 or higher		 Countries
Green 1 26 Sep 2015 21:00 102 50 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 27 Sep 2015 03:00 111 No people No people
Green 3 27 Sep 2015 09:00 120 240 thousand No people Mexico
Green 4 27 Sep 2015 15:00 120 1.1 million No people Mexico
Green 5 27 Sep 2015 21:00 102 430 thousand No people Mexico
Green 6 28 Sep 2015 03:00 102 420 thousand No people Mexico
Green 7 28 Sep 2015 09:00 111 410 thousand No people Mexico
Green 8 28 Sep 2015 15:00 111 50 thousand No people Mexico
Green 9 28 Sep 2015 21:00 130 510 thousand No people Mexico
Green 10 29 Sep 2015 03:00 120 530 thousand No people Mexico
Green 11 29 Sep 2015 09:00 102 380 thousand No people Mexico
Green 12 29 Sep 2015 15:00 93 360 thousand No people Mexico
Green 13 29 Sep 2015 21:00 83 440 thousand No people Mexico
Green 14 30 Sep 2015 03:00 83 440 thousand No people Mexico
Green 15 30 Sep 2015 09:00 56 440 thousand No people Mexico
Green 16 30 Sep 2015 15:00 56 440 thousand No people Mexico
Green 17 30 Sep 2015 21:00 46 440 thousand No people Mexico
Green 18 01 Oct 2015 03:00 46 440 thousand No people Mexico
Green 19 01 Oct 2015 09:00 46 440 thousand No people Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 26 Sep 2015 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.3, -103
GREEN
 2 27 Sep 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, -103
GREEN
 3 27 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.3, -103.1
GREEN
 4 27 Sep 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.9, -102.8
GREEN
 5 27 Sep 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.1, -102.9
GREEN
 6 28 Sep 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 15.3, -103
GREEN
 7 28 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 15.6, -103
GREEN
 8 28 Sep 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.1, -103
GREEN
 9 28 Sep 2015 21:00 Category 1 130 430000 people no people 16.7, -102.1 Mexico
GREEN
 10 29 Sep 2015 03:00 Category 1 120 230000 people no people 16.7, -102 Mexico
GREEN
 11 29 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 102 43000 people no people 16.4, -101.7 Mexico
GREEN
 12 29 Sep 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 16.2, -101.6
GREEN
 13 29 Sep 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 83 100000 people no people 16.3, -101.2 Mexico
GREEN
 14 30 Sep 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 83 100000 people no people 16.3, -101.2 Mexico
GREEN
 15 30 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 16.1, -102
GREEN
 16 30 Sep 2015 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 16.2, -102.6
GREEN
 17 30 Sep 2015 21:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 16.3, -103
GREEN
 18 01 Oct 2015 03:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 16.6, -103.6
GREEN
 19 01 Oct 2015 09:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 16.7, -104.4
GREEN
 19 01 Oct 2015 18:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 17, -105.8
GREEN
 19 02 Oct 2015 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 17.5, -107
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Provinces

Country Region Province Population
Mexico Michoacan 3.8 million people
Mexico Guerrero 2.8 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Tecpan Guerrero Mexico City 14000 people
Petatlán Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 30 Sep 2015 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)