Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BERGUITTA-18
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
14 Jan 2018 06 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA-18 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
    Exposed population 340 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 194 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (17 Jan 23:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Reunion)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 167 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 194 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      167 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.1 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 12 Jan 2018 18:00 176 1.3 million No people Mauritius
        Green 2 13 Jan 2018 00:00 176 2.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 3 13 Jan 2018 06:00 176 2.2 million 1.2 million Mauritius
        Orange 4 13 Jan 2018 12:00 176 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 5 13 Jan 2018 18:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 6 14 Jan 2018 00:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 7 14 Jan 2018 06:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 12 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17, 66.9
          GREEN
          		 2 13 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17.3, 65.6
          GREEN
          		 3 13 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 44000 people -17.7, 64.9 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 4 13 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 44000 people -17.9, 64 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 5 13 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 44000 people -18.3, 63.6 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 6 14 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 44000 people -18.2, 63.4 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 7 14 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 44000 people -18.1, 63 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 7 14 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 44000 people -17.9, 62.8 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 7 15 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people 44000 people -17.7, 62.4 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 7 15 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 139 no people 44000 people -17.6, 62 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 7 16 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 157 no people 2.2 million people -17.7, 61.2 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          ORANGE
          		 7 17 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 167 1.3 million people 2.2 million people -18.6, 59.5 Mauritius
          ORANGE
          		 7 18 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 157 1.8 million people 2.1 million people -20.5, 56.8 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 7 19 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -23, 53.9
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mauritius
          Reunion

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Mauritius Mauritius
          Reunion Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Port Louis Mauritius Capital 150000 people
          Saint-Denis Reunion Capital 140000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Plaisance International MRU 57 Civ. Paved Yes 9900
          Saint Denis Gillot RUN 20 0
          St Pierre Pierrefonds ZSE 16 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Mahebourg Mauritius
          Port Louis MUPLU Mauritius
          Saint Denis Reunion
          Saint Pierre Reunion
          Pointe Des Galets REPDG Reunion
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Saint-Antoine, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 17 Jan 2018 23:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (11 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 14 Jan 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          17 Jan 2018 23:00 Saint-Antoine Mauritius  0.5
          18 Jan 2018 00:00 Trou aux Biches Mauritius  0.4
          18 Jan 2018 01:00 Port Louis Mauritius  0.4
          18 Jan 2018 00:00 Maheboug Mauritius  0.4
          17 Jan 2018 23:00 Riviere du Rempart Mauritius  0.4
          18 Jan 2018 02:00 Black River Mauritius  0.3
          18 Jan 2018 00:00 Grande Reviere Sud Est Mauritius  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 03:00 Souillac Mauritius  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 03:00 Choisy Mauritius  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 00:00 Riche-en-Eau Mauritius  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 03:00 Chemin Grenier Mauritius  0.1