Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAGAR-18
in Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SAGAR-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (19 May 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 93 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

93 km/h Current

Up to 3.7 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 16 May 2018 18:00 83 3.5 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 2 17 May 2018 00:00 83 3 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 3 17 May 2018 06:00 93 6 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 4 17 May 2018 12:00 102 2.5 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 5 17 May 2018 18:00 93 570 thousand No people Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia
Green 6 18 May 2018 00:00 93 1.6 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
Green 7 18 May 2018 06:00 93 3.3 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
Green 8 18 May 2018 12:00 93 3.7 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 16 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 11000 people no people 13.2, 49.5 Yemen
GREEN
2 17 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 28000 people no people 13.1, 48.9 Yemen
GREEN
3 17 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 34000 people no people 13.2, 48.8 Yemen
GREEN
4 17 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 24000 people no people 12.9, 48.1 Yemen
GREEN
5 17 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 34000 people no people 12.5, 47.2 Somalia
GREEN
6 18 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 44000 people no people 12, 46.4 Somalia
GREEN
7 18 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 940000 people no people 11.6, 45.9 Yemen
GREEN
8 18 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 280000 people no people 11.5, 45.5 Somalia
GREEN
8 19 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 370000 people no people 11.1, 44.8 Somalia
GREEN
8 19 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 900000 people no people 10.7, 44.2 Somalia
GREEN
8 20 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 2.6 million people no people 10.3, 43.4 Somalia
GREEN
8 20 May 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 9.8, 42.5 Somalia
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Somalia
Yemen
Ethiopia

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia 1.2 million people
Sanaag Somalia 420000 people
Aden Yemen 3.2 million people
Togdheer Somalia 750000 people
Abyan Yemen -
Awdal Somalia -
Harerge Ethiopia 5.5 million people
'Ataq Yemen -
Hadhramaut Yemen -

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Berbera Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia City 240000 people 129 km
'Adan Yemen Major city 540000 people 149 km
Kraytar Yemen City - 153 km
Ji Jiga Harerge Ethiopia City - 380 km
Harar Harerge Ethiopia City - 441 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Berbera BBO 9 Civ. Paved No 13500 137 km
Aden International ADE 4 Civ. Paved Yes 10100 156 km
Borama BXX unknown 0 309 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Karin Somalia 81 km
Berbera SOBBO Somalia 129 km
Aden YEADE Yemen 152 km
Bulhar Somalia 171 km
Al Hawra Yemen 341 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Lughaye, Somalia. This height is estimated for 19 May 2018 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 18 May 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 May 2018 14:00 Lughaye Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 14:00 Carmaale Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 14:00 Hadeytacawl Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 13:00 Sabawanaag Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 08:00 Takhushih Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 13:00 Sheikh Ali Idris Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 16:00 Harag Jid Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 15:00 Saylac Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 12:00 Biyafoge Somalia  0.1
19 May 2018 10:00 Bullaxaar Somalia  0.1
17 May 2018 21:00 Alela Eritrea  0.1
19 May 2018 16:00 Loyado Djibouti  0.1
19 May 2018 08:00 Geeri Somalia  0.1
17 May 2018 21:00 Aseb Eritrea  0.1
17 May 2018 22:00 Fagal Djibouti  0.1
18 May 2018 09:00 Anteral Somalia  0.1