Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BERYL-18 in Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique from 05 Jul 2018 15:00 UTC to 08 Jul 2018 15:00 UTC

08 Jul 2018 15 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS

Impact Single TC

HWRF

ECMWF

GFS

Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BERYL-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries	Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (09 Jul 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Guadeloupe)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GDACS Current	74 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
GDACS Overall	157 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.1 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat. 1 or higher	Countries
1	05 Jul 2018 15:00	65	No people	No people
2	05 Jul 2018 21:00	120	No people	No people
3	06 Jul 2018 03:00	120	No people	No people
4	06 Jul 2018 09:00	139	590 thousand	No people	Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe
5	06 Jul 2018 15:00	157	10.7 million	70 thousand	Dominica
6	06 Jul 2018 21:00	148	5.8 million	390 thousand	Martinique
7	07 Jul 2018 03:00	139	4.9 million	370 thousand	Martinique
8	07 Jul 2018 09:00	120	560 thousand	No people	Saint Lucia, Martinique, Dominica
9	07 Jul 2018 15:00	102	6.2 million	No people	Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Dominican Republic, Haiti
10	07 Jul 2018 21:00	83	470 thousand	No people	Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe
11	08 Jul 2018 03:00	74	430 thousand	No people	Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe
12	08 Jul 2018 09:00	74	340 thousand	No people	Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico
13	08 Jul 2018 15:00	74	2.2 million	No people	Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	05 Jul 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	10.2, -41.4
2	05 Jul 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	10.3, -42.8
3	06 Jul 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	10.4, -44
4	06 Jul 2018 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	10.6, -45.1
5	06 Jul 2018 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	10.7, -46.5
6	06 Jul 2018 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	10.6, -47.8
7	07 Jul 2018 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	10.9, -48.9
8	07 Jul 2018 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	11.1, -49.8
9	07 Jul 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	12.1, -51.1
10	07 Jul 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.7, -52.7
11	08 Jul 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	13.1, -54.3
12	08 Jul 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	13.7, -56
13	08 Jul 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	74	110000 people	no people	14.4, -57.9	Dominica
13	09 Jul 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	450000 people	no people	15.4, -60.8	Martinique
13	09 Jul 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	65	1.7 million people	no people	16.8, -64.9	Dominican Republic
13	10 Jul 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.4, -68.8	Dominican Republic

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population

Countries

Country
Martinique
Dominica
Guadeloupe
Puerto Rico
Dominican Republic

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population
Martinique	Martinique	370000 people
Dominica	Dominica	70000 people
Guadeloupe	Guadeloupe	410000 people
Guayama	Puerto Rico	-
Ponce	Puerto Rico	-
Arecibo	Puerto Rico	-
Mayag?ez	Puerto Rico	-
Aguadilla	Puerto Rico	-
La Altagracia	Dominican Republic	120000 people
La Romana	Dominican Republic	180000 people
El Seibo	Dominican Republic	75000 people
San Pedro de Macor¡s	Dominican Republic	210000 people
Hato Major	Dominican Republic	170000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Roseau	Saint George	Dominica	Capital	16000 people
Capesterre		Guadeloupe	City	-
Pointe-à-Pitre		Guadeloupe	City	-
Saint-Claude		Guadeloupe	City	10000 people
Basse-Terre		Guadeloupe	Capital	11000 people
Ponce	Ponce	Puerto Rico	City	150000 people
Higüey	La Altagracia	Dominican Republic	City	66000 people
La Romana	La Romana	Dominican Republic	City	200000 people
El Seibo	El Seíbo	Dominican Republic	City	23000 people
San Pedro de Macorís	San Pedro de Macorís	Dominican Republic	City	150000 people
Consuelo	San Pedro de Macorís	Dominican Republic	City	27000 people
Hato Mayor	Hato Major	Dominican Republic	City	35000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

No content available ..

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Roseau	DMRSU	Dominica
Grand Bourg		Guadeloupe
Portsmouth	DMPOR	Dominica
Saint Louis		Guadeloupe
Bourg Des Saintes		Guadeloupe
Pointe-a-Pitre	GPPTP	Guadeloupe
Basse Terre	GPBBR	Guadeloupe
Arroyo		Puerto Rico
Las Mareas		Puerto Rico
Las Mareas (Guayama)	PRLAM	Puerto Rico
Ponce	PRPSE	Puerto Rico
Guayanilla	PRGUY	Puerto Rico
Guanica Harbour	PRGUX	Puerto Rico
Mayaguez	PRMAZ	Puerto Rico
Mona Island	PROIS	Puerto Rico
Cape Engano		Dominican Republic
La Romana	DOLRM	Dominican Republic
San Pedro de Macoris	DOSPM	Dominican Republic

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Toa Vaca Dam	Toa Vaca	1972

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Baroui, Dominica. This height is estimated for 09 Jul 2018 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (10 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 08 Jul 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Jul 2018 01:00	Baroui	Dominica	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 00:00	Marigot	Dominica	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 02:00	Basse-Terre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 00:00	Grand-Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 00:00	Castle Bruce	Dominica	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 00:00	La Plaine	Dominica	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 00:00	Capesterre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 01:00	Portsmouth	Dominica	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 02:00	Saint-Claude	Guadeloupe	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 01:00	Le Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.1