Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BERYL-18
in Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique
08 Jul 2018 15 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BERYL-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (09 Jul 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Guadeloupe)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 74 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

74 km/h Current

Up to 2.1 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm 		Population in
Cat. 1 or higher		 Countries
Green 1 05 Jul 2018 15:00 65 No people No people
Green 2 05 Jul 2018 21:00 120 No people No people
Green 3 06 Jul 2018 03:00 120 No people No people
Green 4 06 Jul 2018 09:00 139 590 thousand No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 5 06 Jul 2018 15:00 157 10.7 million 70 thousand Dominica
Green 6 06 Jul 2018 21:00 148 5.8 million 390 thousand Martinique
Green 7 07 Jul 2018 03:00 139 4.9 million 370 thousand Martinique
Green 8 07 Jul 2018 09:00 120 560 thousand No people Saint Lucia, Martinique, Dominica
Green 9 07 Jul 2018 15:00 102 6.2 million No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Dominican Republic, Haiti
Green 10 07 Jul 2018 21:00 83 470 thousand No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 11 08 Jul 2018 03:00 74 430 thousand No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 12 08 Jul 2018 09:00 74 340 thousand No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico
Green 13 08 Jul 2018 15:00 74 2.2 million No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 05 Jul 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 10.2, -41.4
GREEN
 2 05 Jul 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 10.3, -42.8
GREEN
 3 06 Jul 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 10.4, -44
GREEN
 4 06 Jul 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.6, -45.1
GREEN
 5 06 Jul 2018 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 10.7, -46.5
GREEN
 6 06 Jul 2018 21:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 10.6, -47.8
GREEN
 7 07 Jul 2018 03:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 10.9, -48.9
GREEN
 8 07 Jul 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 11.1, -49.8
GREEN
 9 07 Jul 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 12.1, -51.1
GREEN
 10 07 Jul 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12.7, -52.7
GREEN
 11 08 Jul 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13.1, -54.3
GREEN
 12 08 Jul 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13.7, -56
GREEN
 13 08 Jul 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 74 110000 people no people 14.4, -57.9 Dominica
GREEN
 13 09 Jul 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 450000 people no people 15.4, -60.8 Martinique
GREEN
 13 09 Jul 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 1.7 million people no people 16.8, -64.9 Dominican Republic
GREEN
 13 10 Jul 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.4, -68.8 Dominican Republic
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Martinique
Dominica
Guadeloupe
Puerto Rico
Dominican Republic

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Martinique Martinique 370000 people
Dominica Dominica 70000 people
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 410000 people
Guayama Puerto Rico -
Ponce Puerto Rico -
Arecibo Puerto Rico -
Mayag?ez Puerto Rico -
Aguadilla Puerto Rico -
La Altagracia Dominican Republic 120000 people
La Romana Dominican Republic 180000 people
El Seibo Dominican Republic 75000 people
San Pedro de Macor¡s Dominican Republic 210000 people
Hato Major Dominican Republic 170000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 16000 people 389 km
Capesterre Guadeloupe City - 434 km
Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City - 440 km
Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people 446 km
Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people 447 km
Ponce Ponce Puerto Rico City 150000 people 1014 km
Higüey La Altagracia Dominican Republic City 66000 people 1244 km
La Romana La Romana Dominican Republic City 200000 people 1263 km
El Seibo El Seíbo Dominican Republic City 23000 people 1282 km
San Pedro de Macorís San Pedro de Macorís Dominican Republic City 150000 people 1298 km
Consuelo San Pedro de Macorís Dominican Republic City 27000 people 1301 km
Hato Mayor Hato Major Dominican Republic City 35000 people 1304 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 387 km
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0 390 km
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500 390 km
Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000 397 km
St. Francois SFC unknown 0 417 km
Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0 427 km
Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0 432 km
Le Raizet PTP 11 Civ. Paved Yes 11400 441 km
Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0 457 km
Santa Isabel 8 0 990 km
Fort Allen 6 0 1003 km
Mercedita PSE 9 Civ. Paved Yes 6900 1008 km
Parguera 10 0 1055 km
Baxter-San German 64 0 1057 km
Lajas Airpark 9 0 1059 km
Boqueron 1 0 1066 km
Cullingford Field 4 0 1067 km
Sabalos Ward 10 0 1073 km
Eugenio Maria de Hostos MAZ 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900 1076 km
Punta Cana PUJ 9 Civ. Paved Yes 10100 1208 km
La Romana LRM 8 Civ. Paved Yes 6500 1258 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Roseau DMRSU Dominica 389 km
Grand Bourg Guadeloupe 403 km
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica 405 km
Saint Louis Guadeloupe 405 km
Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe 428 km
Pointe-a-Pitre GPPTP Guadeloupe 441 km
Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe 447 km
Arroyo Puerto Rico 958 km
Las Mareas Puerto Rico 966 km
Las Mareas (Guayama) PRLAM Puerto Rico 971 km
Ponce PRPSE Puerto Rico 1015 km
Guayanilla PRGUY Puerto Rico 1027 km
Guanica Harbour PRGUX Puerto Rico 1038 km
Mayaguez PRMAZ Puerto Rico 1074 km
Mona Island PROIS Puerto Rico 1143 km
Cape Engano Dominican Republic 1205 km
La Romana DOLRM Dominican Republic 1262 km
San Pedro de Macoris DOSPM Dominican Republic 1298 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Toa Vaca Dam Toa Vaca 1972 1005 km
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in El Combate, Puerto Rico. This height is estimated for 09 Jul 2018 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (28 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 08 Jul 2018 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Jul 2018 20:00 El Combate Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 20:00 Rojo Cabo Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 20:00 Pole Ojea Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 02:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 02:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 02:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 02:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 01:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 02:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 03:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 16:00 Punta Santiago Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 16:00 Playa de Humacao Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 16:00 Buena Vista Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 16:00 Palmas del Mar Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 16:00 Bajandas Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 01:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 03:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 19:00 La Parguera Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 19:00 Ensenada Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 19:00 Fuig Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 19:00 Guanica Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 19:00 Maria Antonia Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 19:00 Balneario de Cana Gorda Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 19:00 Campamento Borinquen Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 19:00 Media Quijada Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 19:00 Indios Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 19:00 Tuque Puerto Rico  0.1
09 Jul 2018 19:00 Amalia Marin Puerto Rico  0.1