Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BERYL-18
in Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique
08 Jul 2018 15 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BERYL-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (09 Jul 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Guadeloupe)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 74 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

74 km/h Current

Up to 2.1 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm 		Population in
Cat. 1 or higher		 Countries
Green 1 05 Jul 2018 15:00 65 No people No people
Green 2 05 Jul 2018 21:00 120 No people No people
Green 3 06 Jul 2018 03:00 120 No people No people
Green 4 06 Jul 2018 09:00 139 590 thousand No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 5 06 Jul 2018 15:00 157 10.7 million 70 thousand Dominica
Green 6 06 Jul 2018 21:00 148 5.8 million 390 thousand Martinique
Green 7 07 Jul 2018 03:00 139 4.9 million 370 thousand Martinique
Green 8 07 Jul 2018 09:00 120 560 thousand No people Saint Lucia, Martinique, Dominica
Green 9 07 Jul 2018 15:00 102 6.2 million No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Dominican Republic, Haiti
Green 10 07 Jul 2018 21:00 83 470 thousand No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 11 08 Jul 2018 03:00 74 430 thousand No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 12 08 Jul 2018 09:00 74 340 thousand No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico
Green 13 08 Jul 2018 15:00 74 2.2 million No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 05 Jul 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 10.2, -41.4
GREEN
 2 05 Jul 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 10.3, -42.8
GREEN
 3 06 Jul 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 10.4, -44
GREEN
 4 06 Jul 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.6, -45.1
GREEN
 5 06 Jul 2018 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 10.7, -46.5
GREEN
 6 06 Jul 2018 21:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 10.6, -47.8
GREEN
 7 07 Jul 2018 03:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 10.9, -48.9
GREEN
 8 07 Jul 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 11.1, -49.8
GREEN
 9 07 Jul 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 12.1, -51.1
GREEN
 10 07 Jul 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12.7, -52.7
GREEN
 11 08 Jul 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13.1, -54.3
GREEN
 12 08 Jul 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13.7, -56
GREEN
 13 08 Jul 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 74 110000 people no people 14.4, -57.9 Dominica
GREEN
 13 09 Jul 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 450000 people no people 15.4, -60.8 Martinique
GREEN
 13 09 Jul 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 1.7 million people no people 16.8, -64.9 Dominican Republic
GREEN
 13 10 Jul 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.4, -68.8 Dominican Republic
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Martinique
Dominica
Guadeloupe
Puerto Rico
Dominican Republic

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Martinique Martinique 370000 people
Dominica Dominica 70000 people
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 410000 people
Guayama Puerto Rico -
Ponce Puerto Rico -
Arecibo Puerto Rico -
Mayag?ez Puerto Rico -
Aguadilla Puerto Rico -
La Altagracia Dominican Republic 120000 people
La Romana Dominican Republic 180000 people
El Seibo Dominican Republic 75000 people
San Pedro de Macor¡s Dominican Republic 210000 people
Hato Major Dominican Republic 170000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 16000 people
Capesterre Guadeloupe City -
Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City -
Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people
Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people
Ponce Ponce Puerto Rico City 150000 people
Higüey La Altagracia Dominican Republic City 66000 people
La Romana La Romana Dominican Republic City 200000 people
El Seibo El Seíbo Dominican Republic City 23000 people
San Pedro de Macorís San Pedro de Macorís Dominican Republic City 150000 people
Consuelo San Pedro de Macorís Dominican Republic City 27000 people
Hato Mayor Hato Major Dominican Republic City 35000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500
Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000
St. Francois SFC unknown 0
Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0
Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0
Le Raizet PTP 11 Civ. Paved Yes 11400
Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0
Santa Isabel 8 0
Fort Allen 6 0
Mercedita PSE 9 Civ. Paved Yes 6900
Parguera 10 0
Baxter-San German 64 0
Lajas Airpark 9 0
Boqueron 1 0
Cullingford Field 4 0
Sabalos Ward 10 0
Eugenio Maria de Hostos MAZ 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
Punta Cana PUJ 9 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
La Romana LRM 8 Civ. Paved Yes 6500

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Roseau DMRSU Dominica
Grand Bourg Guadeloupe
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica
Saint Louis Guadeloupe
Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe
Pointe-a-Pitre GPPTP Guadeloupe
Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe
Arroyo Puerto Rico
Las Mareas Puerto Rico
Las Mareas (Guayama) PRLAM Puerto Rico
Ponce PRPSE Puerto Rico
Guayanilla PRGUY Puerto Rico
Guanica Harbour PRGUX Puerto Rico
Mayaguez PRMAZ Puerto Rico
Mona Island PROIS Puerto Rico
Cape Engano Dominican Republic
La Romana DOLRM Dominican Republic
San Pedro de Macoris DOSPM Dominican Republic

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Toa Vaca Dam Toa Vaca 1972
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Baroui, Dominica. This height is estimated for 09 Jul 2018 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (10 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 08 Jul 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Jul 2018 01:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 00:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 02:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 00:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 00:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 00:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 00:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 01:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 02:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 01:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1