Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar


Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (China)


GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 194 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)


194 km/h Current

Up to 160000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
1 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.8
1 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13.3, 163.2
1 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.7, 160.3
1 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 13.7, 157.1
1 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 139 160000 people no people 13, 151.2 Guam
1 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 3 194 210000 people 160000 people 12.8, 147.1 Guam
1 12 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 14.3, 143.3
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Exposed population




Region Province Country Population
Guam Guam 140000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people 2526 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.


Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 2474 km
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0 2507 km
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0 2521 km


Name LOCODE Country Distance
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 2484 km
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam 2533 km
Apra Harbor Guam 2540 km


Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.



0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 07 Sep 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)