Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
09 Sep 2018 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
    Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (10 Sep 10:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (China)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 185 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 287 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      185 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 42000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
          GREEN
          		 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
          GREEN
          		 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
          GREEN
          		 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
          GREEN
          		 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
          GREEN
          		 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
          GREEN
          		 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
          GREEN
          		 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
          GREEN
          		 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
          GREEN
          		 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
          ORANGE
          		 10 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 2 157 7600 people 210000 people 14.8, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
          RED
          		 10 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 3 185 43000 people 210000 people 14.4, 145.9 Guam
          GREEN
          		 10 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 no people 160000 people 14.3, 143.1 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 10 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.3, 140.5
          GREEN
          		 10 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 15.2, 135.7
          GREEN
          		 10 13 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people 3.3 million people 16.4, 130.7 Philippines
          GREEN
          		 10 14 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 18.2, 125.5
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Northern Mariana Is.
          Guam

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands
          Guam Guam

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700
          Dynasty 46 0
          West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
          Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
          Andersen AFB UAM 191 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Tinian Northern Mariana Islands
          Rota Northern Mariana Islands
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 10:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (48 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 09 Sep 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.6
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.6
          10 Sep 2018 08:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
          10 Sep 2018 08:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Upi Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Piti Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asan Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Hagatna Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Sinajana Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Mongmong Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Yona Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Tamuning Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Barrigada Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asbeco Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Adacao Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Agat Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Talofofo Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Ylig Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 12:00 Umatac Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 12:00 Merizo Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 12:00 Inarajan Guam  0.1