Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Glide number: TC-2018-000152-CHN
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population 61.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (10 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 250 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

250 km/h Current

Up to 810000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
GREEN
10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
GREEN
11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
GREEN
12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 49000 people no people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
12 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 210000 people 150000 people 14.2, 145.7 Guam
GREEN
12 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 194 160000 people no people 14, 142.7 Guam
GREEN
12 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 14.1, 140.1
GREEN
12 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.2, 137.4
GREEN
12 12 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 15.2, 132.4
ORANGE
12 13 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 250 25.9 million people 660000 people 16.9, 127.5 Philippines
GREEN
12 14 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 18.9, 122.6 Philippines
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Guam
Philippines

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Guam Guam 140000 people
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines 1.1 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people 490 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 420 km
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0 467 km
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0 484 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 431 km
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam 497 km
Apra Harbor Guam 503 km
Port San Vicente Philippines 2905 km
Aparri PHAPR Philippines 2955 km
Abulog Philippines 2976 km
Calayan Philippines 2982 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (46 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 09 Sep 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 07:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
10 Sep 2018 07:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 09:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Upi Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Wright Philippines  0.2
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Pequit Philippines  0.2
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Pabanong Philippines  0.2
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Hinabangan Philippines  0.2
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Bangon Philippines  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Piti Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Asan Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Hagatna Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Sinajana Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Mongmong Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Yona Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Tamuning Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Barrigada Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Asbeco Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Adacao Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Mualbual Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Bikal Philippines  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Agat Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Talofofo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Ylig Guam  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Macalonud Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Catbalogan Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 San Andres Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Bagas Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Babatngon Philippines  0.1