Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Sep 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 250 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

250 km/h Current

Up to 2.1 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 250 25.7 million 2.2 million Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
GREEN
10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
GREEN
11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
GREEN
12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 49000 people no people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 210000 people 5300 people 14.5, 147.4 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
13 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 210000 people no people 14.1, 144.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
13 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14, 141.4
GREEN
13 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.2, 138.7
GREEN
13 12 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 14.5, 136.1
GREEN
13 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 15.7, 131.2
ORANGE
13 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 250 25.4 million people 2 million people 17.3, 126.6 Philippines
GREEN
13 15 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 19.3, 121.8 Philippines
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Guam
Philippines

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Guam Guam 140000 people
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines 1.1 million people
Ilocos Philippines 3.5 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people 309 km
Tuguegarao Cagayan Valley Philippines City 110000 people 2768 km
Bacarra Ilocos Philippines City 9600 people 2890 km
Laoag Ilocos Philippines City 100000 people 2891 km
San Nicolas Ilocos Philippines City 19000 people 2891 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 236 km
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0 286 km
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0 303 km
Tuguegarao TUG 21 Civ. Paved No 5900 2766 km
Basco BSO 56 Civ. Paved No 4100 2776 km
Taggat 5 0 2845 km
Laoag International LAO 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7900 2897 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 246 km
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam 316 km
Apra Harbor Guam 322 km
Port San Vicente Philippines 2731 km
Basco Philippines 2777 km
Aparri PHAPR Philippines 2781 km
Abulog Philippines 2801 km
Calayan Philippines 2810 km
Claveria Philippines 2843 km
Dirique Inlet Philippines 2894 km
Laoag PHLAO Philippines 2895 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (74 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 10 Sep 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Wright Philippines  0.2
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Pequit Philippines  0.2
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Pabanong Philippines  0.2
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Hinabangan Philippines  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Upi Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Bangon Philippines  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Piti Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asan Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Hagatna Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Sinajana Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Mongmong Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Yona Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Tamuning Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Barrigada Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asbeco Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Adacao Guam  0.1
13 Sep 2018 22:00 Bikal Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Mualbual Philippines  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Bagas Philippines  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Agat Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Talofofo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Ylig Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Umatac Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Merizo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Inarajan Guam  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Pandan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Catbalogan Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Bagacay Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 San Andres Philippines  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Bitaogan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Caramoan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Guijalo Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Pandanan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Colongcogong Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Sialat Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Calolbon Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Manambrag Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Gitoma Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Panganiban Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 22:00 Macalonud Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Tatabunan Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 20:00 Guintampilan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Miguel Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Balaton Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Narombacan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Babatngon Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Pagsanjan Philippines  0.1