Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Glide number: TC-2018-000152-CHN
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population 61.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (10 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 250 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

250 km/h Current

Up to 750000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 250 25.7 million 2.2 million Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 250 27 million 750 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
GREEN
10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
GREEN
11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
GREEN
12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 49000 people no people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 210000 people 5300 people 14.5, 147.4 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 167 210000 people 130000 people 14.3, 145.7 Guam
GREEN
14 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 185 160000 people no people 14, 142.7 Guam
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14, 140.1
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 14.3, 137.7
GREEN
14 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.6, 135.3
GREEN
14 13 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 241 95000 people no people 15.8, 130.8 Philippines
ORANGE
14 14 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 26.7 million people 610000 people 17.9, 126 Philippines
GREEN
14 15 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 20.2, 120.7
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Guam
Philippines

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Guam Guam 140000 people
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines 1.1 million people
Ilocos Philippines 3.5 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people 138 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 51 km
Dynasty 46 0 74 km
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 78 km
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0 115 km
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0 133 km
Basco BSO 56 Civ. Paved No 4100 2608 km
Taggat 5 0 2671 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 63 km
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands 75 km
Apra Harbor Guam 150 km
Port San Vicente Philippines 2557 km
Aparri PHAPR Philippines 2607 km
Basco Philippines 2609 km
Abulog Philippines 2628 km
Calayan Philippines 2638 km
Claveria Philippines 2669 km
Dirique Inlet Philippines 2720 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (63 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 10 Sep 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Upi Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
14 Sep 2018 03:00 Wright Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Pequit Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Pabanong Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Hinabangan Philippines  0.2
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Piti Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asan Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Hagatna Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Sinajana Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Mongmong Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Yona Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Tamuning Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Barrigada Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Adacao Guam  0.2
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Bangon Philippines  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Agat Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Talofofo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Ylig Guam  0.1
14 Sep 2018 03:00 Mualbual Philippines  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Umatac Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Merizo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Inarajan Guam  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Bagas Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 03:00 Bikal Philippines  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
14 Sep 2018 06:00 Pandan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 06:00 Panganiban Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 03:00 Macalonud Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 03:00 Catbalogan Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 20:00 San Andres Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Babatngon Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 06:00 Balza Philippines  0.1