Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
12 Sep 2018 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
    Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (10 Sep 09:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (China)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 259 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 287 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      259 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 54.2 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
        Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
        Orange 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 250 25.7 million 2.2 million Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
        Orange 14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 250 27 million 750 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
        Orange 15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 259 65.2 million 210 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
        Red 16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 250 113 million 1.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
        Red 17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 250 151 million 3.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
        Red 18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 250 185.2 million 31.6 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
        Red 19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 250 190.1 million 37 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
        Red 20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 269 207.4 million 43.4 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
        Red 21 12 Sep 2018 00:00 259 217.7 million 54.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
          GREEN
          		 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
          GREEN
          		 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
          GREEN
          		 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
          GREEN
          		 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
          GREEN
          		 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
          GREEN
          		 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
          GREEN
          		 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
          GREEN
          		 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
          GREEN
          		 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
          GREEN
          		 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
          GREEN
          		 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 no people 49000 people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
          ORANGE
          		 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 5400 people 210000 people 14.5, 147.4 Northern Mariana Islands
          ORANGE
          		 14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 167 140000 people 210000 people 14.3, 145.7 Guam
          GREEN
          		 15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 no people 210000 people 14.1, 144.2 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 no people 170000 people 14, 142.6 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14, 141.2
          GREEN
          		 18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 14, 139.7
          GREEN
          		 19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.7, 138.6
          GREEN
          		 20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.9, 137.3
          GREEN
          		 21 12 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.9, 136.2
          GREEN
          		 21 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 14.2, 133.9
          GREEN
          		 21 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 14.9, 131.3
          GREEN
          		 21 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 269 no people 2.5 million people 15.7, 128.9 Philippines
          RED
          		 21 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 259 4.9 million people 57.7 million people 16.7, 126.3 Philippines
          RED
          		 21 15 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 222 3.7 million people 149.7 million people 18.7, 121.1 Philippines
          ORANGE
          		 21 16 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 3 194 49.2 million people 157.7 million people 20.7, 115.4 China
          GREEN
          		 21 17 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 22.3, 109.4 China
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Guam
          Northern Mariana Is.
          Philippines
          China

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Guam Guam
          Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands
          Cagayan Valley Philippines
          Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines
          Ilocos Philippines
          Guangdong China
          Hong Kong China
          Macau China
          Guangxi China

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people
          Cabagan Cagayan Valley Philippines City 25000 people
          Tuguegarao Cagayan Valley Philippines City 110000 people
          San Nicolas Ilocos Philippines City 20000 people
          Bacarra Ilocos Philippines City 9600 people
          Laoag Ilocos Philippines City 100000 people
          Central Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city 6.2 million people
          Kowloon Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city 2 million people
          Sha Tin Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city -
          Tuen Mun Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) City -
          Macau Macau SAR Macau (China) Major city -
          Sanxiang Guangdong China City -
          Zhongshan Guangdong China City 340000 people
          Jiangmen Guangdong China City 530000 people
          Xincheng Guangdong China City -
          Taicheng Guangdong China City 140000 people
          Sanbu Guangdong China City 140000 people
          Cangcheng Guangdong China City -
          Sihe Guangdong China City -
          Encheng Guangdong China City 110000 people
          Xinxing Guangdong China City -
          Jiangcheng Guangdong China City -
          Chuncheng Guangdong China City 150000 people
          Maoming Guangdong China City 470000 people
          Meilu Guangdong China City 100000 people
          Gaozhou Guangdong China City 160000 people
          Huangpo Guangdong China City -
          Dongli Guangdong China City 110000 people
          Zhanjiang Guangdong China City 640000 people
          Chikan Guangdong China City -
          Leicheng Guangdong China City -
          Rongcheng Guangxi China City -
          Lingcheng Guangxi China City -
          Yulin Guangxi China City 150000 people
          Guichen Guangxi China City -
          Lianzhou Guangxi China City 71000 people
          Hengzhou Guangxi China City -
          Beihai Guangxi China City 290000 people
          Lingcheng Guangxi China City -
          Nanning Guangxi China City 1 million people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0
          Andersen AFB UAM 191 0
          Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
          West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
          Dynasty 46 0
          Palanan 50 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Cauayan CYZ 61 Civ. Paved No 5700
          Tuguegarao TUG 21 Civ. Paved No 5900
          Taggat 5 0
          Laoag International LAO 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7900
          Vigan 4 Civ. Paved No 3400
          Pratas Island 3 0
          Sek Kong 15 Priv. Paved No 4100
          Hong Kong International (Chep Lap Kok) HKG 9 Civ. Paved Yes 12400
          Macau MFM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 11000
          Zhuhai ZUH 6 0
          Shanzhou SZO unknown 0
          Zhanjiang ZHA 75 0
          Suixi 32 0
          Guiping / Menghsu 100 0
          Beihai BHY 25 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Apra Harbor Guam
          Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam
          Rota Northern Mariana Islands
          Tinian Northern Mariana Islands
          Palanan Philippines
          Port San Vicente Philippines
          Aparri PHAPR Philippines
          Abulog Philippines
          Calayan Philippines
          Claveria Philippines
          Port San Esteban Philippines
          Laoag PHLAO Philippines
          Gan Bay Philippines
          Pandan Philippines
          Salomague Philippines
          Dirique Inlet Philippines
          Pratas Island China
          Lufeng Terminal China
          Lan Shui Terminal China
          Huizhou Terminal CNHUI China
          Xijiang Terminal China
          Hong Kong HKHKG Hong Kong (China)
          Chiwan CNCWN China
          Jiangmen CNJMN China
          Yangjiang CNYJI China
          Shuidong CNSDG China
          Zhanjiang CNZHA China
          Lei Shou China
          Bei Hai CNBHY China
          Fangcheng Gang China

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Dalongdong Dalongdong He 1959
          Donghu Nalong He 1961
          Jinjiang Tan He 1972
          Huangsha Yanghua Jiang 1960
          Renshui Luoguang Shui 1975
          Fucao Qianpai He 1997
          Gaozhou Dajing He 1959
          Hedi Jiuzhou Jiang 1961
          Liuchen Baisha 1961
          Baishi Baishi He 1960
          Hepu Xiaojiang He 1960
          Xiaojiang Xiaojiang He 1960
          Wusijiang Wusi Jiang 1958
          Dakai Mapai He 1965
          Lingdong Yin Jiang 1963
          Hongchaojiang Hongchao Jiang 1964
          Pinglong Trib. Yu Jiang n/a
          Xijin Yu Jiang 1964
          Tunliu Trib. Yu Jiang n/a
          Dawangtan Bachi Jiang 1960
          Fengtinghe Bachi Jiang 1960
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (48 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 12 Sep 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
          10 Sep 2018 08:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
          10 Sep 2018 08:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Upi Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Piti Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asan Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Hagatna Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Sinajana Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Mongmong Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Yona Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Tamuning Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Barrigada Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Adacao Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Agat Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Talofofo Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Ylig Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Umatac Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Merizo Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Inarajan Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.1