Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Glide number: TC-2018-000152-CHN
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population 61.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (10 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 259 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

259 km/h Current

Up to 54.2 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 250 25.7 million 2.2 million Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 250 27 million 750 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 259 65.2 million 210 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 250 113 million 1.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 250 151 million 3.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 250 185.2 million 31.6 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 250 190.1 million 37 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 269 207.4 million 43.4 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 21 12 Sep 2018 00:00 259 217.7 million 54.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
GREEN
10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
GREEN
11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
GREEN
12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 49000 people no people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 210000 people 5300 people 14.5, 147.4 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 167 210000 people 130000 people 14.3, 145.7 Guam
GREEN
15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 14.1, 144.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 160000 people no people 14, 142.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14, 141.2
GREEN
18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 14, 139.7
GREEN
19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.7, 138.6
GREEN
20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.9, 137.3
GREEN
21 12 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.9, 136.2
GREEN
21 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 14.2, 133.9
GREEN
21 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 14.9, 131.3
GREEN
21 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 269 2.4 million people no people 15.7, 128.9 Philippines
RED
21 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 259 57.6 million people 4.8 million people 16.7, 126.3 Philippines
RED
21 15 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 222 149.7 million people 3.7 million people 18.7, 121.1 Philippines
ORANGE
21 16 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 3 194 157.7 million people 49.2 million people 20.7, 115.4 China
GREEN
21 17 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 22.3, 109.4 China
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Guam
Northern Mariana Is.
Philippines
China

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Guam Guam 140000 people
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines 1.1 million people
Ilocos Philippines 3.5 million people
Guangdong China 69.6 million people
Hong Kong China 5.8 million people
Macau China 380000 people
Guangxi China 46.8 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people 926 km
Cabagan Cagayan Valley Philippines City 24000 people 1597 km
Tuguegarao Cagayan Valley Philippines City 110000 people 1605 km
San Nicolas Ilocos Philippines City 19000 people 1735 km
Bacarra Ilocos Philippines City 9600 people 1736 km
Laoag Ilocos Philippines City 100000 people 1736 km
Central Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city 6.1 million people 2505 km
Kowloon Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city 2 million people 2506 km
Sha Tin Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city - 2508 km
Tuen Mun Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) City - 2529 km
Macau Macau SAR Macau (China) Major city - 2565 km
Sanxiang Guangdong China City - 2582 km
Zhongshan Guangdong China City 330000 people 2594 km
Jiangmen Guangdong China City 530000 people 2622 km
Xincheng Guangdong China City - 2625 km
Taicheng Guangdong China City 140000 people 2642 km
Sanbu Guangdong China City 130000 people 2643 km
Cangcheng Guangdong China City - 2672 km
Sihe Guangdong China City - 2678 km
Encheng Guangdong China City 110000 people 2687 km
Xinxing Guangdong China City - 2711 km
Jiangcheng Guangdong China City - 2713 km
Chuncheng Guangdong China City 150000 people 2738 km
Maoming Guangdong China City 460000 people 2813 km
Meilu Guangdong China City 100000 people 2822 km
Gaozhou Guangdong China City 160000 people 2825 km
Huangpo Guangdong China City - 2834 km
Dongli Guangdong China City 100000 people 2850 km
Zhanjiang Guangdong China City 630000 people 2853 km
Chikan Guangdong China City - 2859 km
Leicheng Guangdong China City - 2877 km
Rongcheng Guangxi China City - 2881 km
Lingcheng Guangxi China City - 2896 km
Yulin Guangxi China City 140000 people 2914 km
Guichen Guangxi China City - 2981 km
Lianzhou Guangxi China City 70000 people 2985 km
Hengzhou Guangxi China City - 2989 km
Beihai Guangxi China City 280000 people 2989 km
Lingcheng Guangxi China City - 2993 km
Nanning Guangxi China City 1 million people 3104 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0 931 km
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0 944 km
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 977 km
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 1023 km
Dynasty 46 0 1025 km
Palanan 50 Civ. Unpaved No 3200 1518 km
Cauayan CYZ 61 Civ. Paved No 5700 1586 km
Tuguegarao TUG 21 Civ. Paved No 5900 1604 km
Taggat 5 0 1699 km
Laoag International LAO 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7900 1741 km
Vigan 4 Civ. Paved No 3400 1745 km
Pratas Island 3 0 2201 km
Sek Kong 15 Priv. Paved No 4100 2520 km
Hong Kong International (Chep Lap Kok) HKG 9 Civ. Paved Yes 12400 2532 km
Macau MFM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 11000 2558 km
Zhuhai ZUH 6 0 2575 km
Shanzhou SZO unknown 0 2576 km
Zhanjiang ZHA 75 0 2856 km
Suixi 32 0 2876 km
Guiping / Menghsu 100 0 2948 km
Beihai BHY 25 0 2972 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Apra Harbor Guam 912 km
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam 919 km
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 967 km
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands 1022 km
Palanan Philippines 1516 km
Port San Vicente Philippines 1587 km
Aparri PHAPR Philippines 1632 km
Abulog Philippines 1654 km
Calayan Philippines 1679 km
Claveria Philippines 1697 km
Port San Esteban Philippines 1732 km
Laoag PHLAO Philippines 1740 km
Gan Bay Philippines 1741 km
Pandan Philippines 1744 km
Salomague Philippines 1744 km
Dirique Inlet Philippines 1744 km
Pratas Island China 2202 km
Lufeng Terminal China 2288 km
Lan Shui Terminal China 2309 km
Huizhou Terminal CNHUI China 2353 km
Xijiang Terminal China 2397 km
Hong Kong HKHKG Hong Kong (China) 2505 km
Chiwan CNCWN China 2540 km
Jiangmen CNJMN China 2620 km
Yangjiang CNYJI China 2709 km
Shuidong CNSDG China 2798 km
Zhanjiang CNZHA China 2851 km
Lei Shou China 2863 km
Bei Hai CNBHY China 2992 km
Fangcheng Gang China 3072 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Dalongdong Dalongdong He 1959 2649 km
Donghu Nalong He 1961 2690 km
Jinjiang Tan He 1972 2703 km
Huangsha Yanghua Jiang 1960 2775 km
Renshui Luoguang Shui 1975 2783 km
Fucao Qianpai He 1997 2805 km
Gaozhou Dajing He 1959 2817 km
Hedi Jiuzhou Jiang 1961 2874 km
Liuchen Baisha 1961 2912 km
Baishi Baishi He 1960 2929 km
Hepu Xiaojiang He 1960 2950 km
Xiaojiang Xiaojiang He 1960 2952 km
Wusijiang Wusi Jiang 1958 2966 km
Dakai Mapai He 1965 2980 km
Lingdong Yin Jiang 1963 2985 km
Hongchaojiang Hongchao Jiang 1964 2992 km
Pinglong Trib. Yu Jiang -99 3004 km
Xijin Yu Jiang 1964 3005 km
Tunliu Trib. Yu Jiang -99 3092 km
Dawangtan Bachi Jiang 1960 3095 km
Fengtinghe Bachi Jiang 1960 3096 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (48 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 12 Sep 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Upi Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Piti Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asan Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Hagatna Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Sinajana Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Mongmong Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Yona Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Tamuning Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Barrigada Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Adacao Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Agat Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Talofofo Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Ylig Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Umatac Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Merizo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Inarajan Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.1