Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (10 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 259 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

259 km/h Current

Up to 54.2 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 250 25.7 million 2.2 million Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 250 27 million 750 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 259 65.2 million 210 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 250 113 million 1.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 250 151 million 3.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 250 185.2 million 31.6 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 250 190.1 million 37 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 269 207.4 million 43.4 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 21 12 Sep 2018 00:00 259 217.7 million 54.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
GREEN
10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
GREEN
11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
GREEN
12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 49000 people no people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 210000 people 5300 people 14.5, 147.4 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 167 210000 people 130000 people 14.3, 145.7 Guam
GREEN
15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 14.1, 144.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 160000 people no people 14, 142.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14, 141.2
GREEN
18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 14, 139.7
GREEN
19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.7, 138.6
GREEN
20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.9, 137.3
GREEN
21 12 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.9, 136.2
GREEN
21 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 14.2, 133.9
GREEN
21 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 14.9, 131.3
GREEN
21 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 269 2.4 million people no people 15.7, 128.9 Philippines
RED
21 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 259 57.6 million people 4.8 million people 16.7, 126.3 Philippines
RED
21 15 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 222 149.7 million people 3.7 million people 18.7, 121.1 Philippines
ORANGE
21 16 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 3 194 157.7 million people 49.2 million people 20.7, 115.4 China
GREEN
21 17 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 22.3, 109.4 China
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Guam
Northern Mariana Is.
Philippines
China

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Guam Guam 140000 people
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines 1.1 million people
Ilocos Philippines 3.5 million people
Guangdong China 69.6 million people
Hong Kong China 5.8 million people
Macau China 380000 people
Guangxi China 46.8 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people
Cabagan Cagayan Valley Philippines City 24000 people
Tuguegarao Cagayan Valley Philippines City 110000 people
San Nicolas Ilocos Philippines City 19000 people
Bacarra Ilocos Philippines City 9600 people
Laoag Ilocos Philippines City 100000 people
Central Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city 6.1 million people
Kowloon Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city 2 million people
Sha Tin Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city -
Tuen Mun Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) City -
Macau Macau SAR Macau (China) Major city -
Sanxiang Guangdong China City -
Zhongshan Guangdong China City 330000 people
Jiangmen Guangdong China City 530000 people
Xincheng Guangdong China City -
Taicheng Guangdong China City 140000 people
Sanbu Guangdong China City 130000 people
Cangcheng Guangdong China City -
Sihe Guangdong China City -
Encheng Guangdong China City 110000 people
Xinxing Guangdong China City -
Jiangcheng Guangdong China City -
Chuncheng Guangdong China City 150000 people
Maoming Guangdong China City 460000 people
Meilu Guangdong China City 100000 people
Gaozhou Guangdong China City 160000 people
Huangpo Guangdong China City -
Dongli Guangdong China City 100000 people
Zhanjiang Guangdong China City 630000 people
Chikan Guangdong China City -
Leicheng Guangdong China City -
Rongcheng Guangxi China City -
Lingcheng Guangxi China City -
Yulin Guangxi China City 140000 people
Guichen Guangxi China City -
Lianzhou Guangxi China City 70000 people
Hengzhou Guangxi China City -
Beihai Guangxi China City 280000 people
Lingcheng Guangxi China City -
Nanning Guangxi China City 1 million people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Dynasty 46 0
Palanan 50 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Cauayan CYZ 61 Civ. Paved No 5700
Tuguegarao TUG 21 Civ. Paved No 5900
Taggat 5 0
Laoag International LAO 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7900
Vigan 4 Civ. Paved No 3400
Pratas Island 3 0
Sek Kong 15 Priv. Paved No 4100
Hong Kong International (Chep Lap Kok) HKG 9 Civ. Paved Yes 12400
Macau MFM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 11000
Zhuhai ZUH 6 0
Shanzhou SZO unknown 0
Zhanjiang ZHA 75 0
Suixi 32 0
Guiping / Menghsu 100 0
Beihai BHY 25 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Apra Harbor Guam
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam
Rota Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands
Palanan Philippines
Port San Vicente Philippines
Aparri PHAPR Philippines
Abulog Philippines
Calayan Philippines
Claveria Philippines
Port San Esteban Philippines
Laoag PHLAO Philippines
Gan Bay Philippines
Pandan Philippines
Salomague Philippines
Dirique Inlet Philippines
Pratas Island China
Lufeng Terminal China
Lan Shui Terminal China
Huizhou Terminal CNHUI China
Xijiang Terminal China
Hong Kong HKHKG Hong Kong (China)
Chiwan CNCWN China
Jiangmen CNJMN China
Yangjiang CNYJI China
Shuidong CNSDG China
Zhanjiang CNZHA China
Lei Shou China
Bei Hai CNBHY China
Fangcheng Gang China

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Dalongdong Dalongdong He 1959
Donghu Nalong He 1961
Jinjiang Tan He 1972
Huangsha Yanghua Jiang 1960
Renshui Luoguang Shui 1975
Fucao Qianpai He 1997
Gaozhou Dajing He 1959
Hedi Jiuzhou Jiang 1961
Liuchen Baisha 1961
Baishi Baishi He 1960
Hepu Xiaojiang He 1960
Xiaojiang Xiaojiang He 1960
Wusijiang Wusi Jiang 1958
Dakai Mapai He 1965
Lingdong Yin Jiang 1963
Hongchaojiang Hongchao Jiang 1964
Pinglong Trib. Yu Jiang -99
Xijin Yu Jiang 1964
Tunliu Trib. Yu Jiang -99
Dawangtan Bachi Jiang 1960
Fengtinghe Bachi Jiang 1960

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (48 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 12 Sep 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Upi Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Piti Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asan Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Hagatna Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Sinajana Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Mongmong Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Yona Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Tamuning Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Barrigada Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Adacao Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Agat Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Talofofo Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Ylig Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Umatac Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Merizo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Inarajan Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.1