Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (11 Sep 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 185 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

185 km/h Current

Up to 160000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13.3, 162.8
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 13.7, 159.8
GREEN
3 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 13.9, 156.4
GREEN
3 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 148 <1000 people no people 13.8, 153.3
RED
3 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 210000 people 160000 people 13.3, 147.5 Guam
GREEN
3 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 213 160000 people no people 13.7, 143.3 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
3 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 15.5, 139.3
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Guam

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Guam Guam 140000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people 2251 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 2198 km
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0 2231 km
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0 2245 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 2208 km
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam 2258 km
Apra Harbor Guam 2265 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Lockwood Terrace, Guam. This height is estimated for 11 Sep 2018 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (36 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 07 Sep 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Agat Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Umatac Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Gayinero Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Lupog Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 03:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Adacao Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Merizo Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Ylig Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Yona Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Barrigada Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Talofofo Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Inarajan Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Upi Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Piti Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Asan Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Tamuning Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Hagatna Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Sinajana Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Mongmong Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1