Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (11 Sep 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 213 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

213 km/h Current

Up to 160000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.9, 159.3
GREEN
5 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.1, 156.1
GREEN
5 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 14, 153
ORANGE
5 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 2 176 210000 people 160000 people 13.7, 150.1 Guam
RED
5 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 213 210000 people 160000 people 13.4, 145.1 Guam
GREEN
5 12 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 14.7, 140.9
GREEN
5 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 16.5, 136.9
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Guam

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Guam Guam 140000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people 1900 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0 1880 km
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0 1894 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam 1907 km
Apra Harbor Guam 1914 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Upi, Guam. This height is estimated for 11 Sep 2018 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (36 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 08 Sep 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Upi Guam  0.6
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.5
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Agat Guam  0.5
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.5
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.5
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Barrigada Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Asbeco Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Hagatna Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Mongmong Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Yona Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Tamuning Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Oceanview Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Ylig Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Adacao Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Sinajana Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Dededo Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Gayinero Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 South Acres Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Umatac Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Talofofo Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Ipapao Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Piti Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Asan Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Lupog Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Merizo Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Inarajan Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1