Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (10 Sep 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 176 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

176 km/h Current

Up to 160000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.9, 157.6
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, 154.4
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 9800 people no people 14.4, 151.2 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
6 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 210000 people 160000 people 14.2, 148.4 Guam
GREEN
6 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 213 210000 people no people 14.1, 143.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
6 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 15.4, 138.5
GREEN
6 13 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 17.4, 134.2
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Guam

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Guam Guam 140000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people 1737 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Dynasty 46 0 1634 km
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 1679 km
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0 1717 km
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0 1732 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands 1637 km
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 1689 km
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam 1745 km
Apra Harbor Guam 1751 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (48 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 08 Sep 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Upi Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Piti Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Asan Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Hagatna Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Sinajana Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Mongmong Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Yona Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Tamuning Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Barrigada Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Adacao Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 19:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Agat Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Talofofo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Ylig Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 19:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 19:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 19:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 19:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 19:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 19:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 19:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Umatac Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Merizo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 23:00 Inarajan Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 19:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 19:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 19:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 19:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.1