Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
10 Sep 2018 21 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (13 Sep 23:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 139 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      139 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 73000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
        Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
        Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
        Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
        Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
        Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
        Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
        Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
        Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
          GREEN
          		 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
          GREEN
          		 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
          GREEN
          		 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
          GREEN
          		 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
          GREEN
          		 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
          GREEN
          		 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
          GREEN
          		 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
          GREEN
          		 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
          GREEN
          		 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
          GREEN
          		 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
          GREEN
          		 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
          GREEN
          		 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
          GREEN
          		 13 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 14.5, -47.1
          GREEN
          		 13 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 14.6, -49.8
          GREEN
          		 13 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 14.6, -52.3
          GREEN
          		 13 12 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 139 no people 490000 people 14.8, -54.7 Dominica
          GREEN
          		 13 13 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 130 73000 people 930000 people 15.3, -60.2 Dominica
          GREEN
          		 13 14 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 15.5, -65.5
          GREEN
          		 13 15 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.5, -70.5
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Dominica

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Dominica Dominica

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 17000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
          Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0
          Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Roseau DMRSU Dominica
          Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in La Plaine, Dominica. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 23:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (23 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 10 Sep 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          13 Sep 2018 23:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.3
          13 Sep 2018 23:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 23:00 Dubuc Dominica  0.2
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Roseau Dominica  0.2
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Baroui Dominica  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 23:00 Marigot Dominica  0.2
          14 Sep 2018 01:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 23:00 Scotts Head Dominica  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 02:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 02:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 04:00 Bouillante Guadeloupe  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 22:00 Basse-Pointe Martinique  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 22:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 22:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 01:00 Sainte-Anne Guadeloupe  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 03:00 Baie-Mahault Guadeloupe  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 02:00 Pointe-a-Pitre Guadeloupe  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 01:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 19:00 Punta Santiago Puerto Rico  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 19:00 Playa de Humacao Puerto Rico  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 19:00 Buena Vista Puerto Rico  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 19:00 Palmas del Mar Puerto Rico  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 19:00 Bajandas Puerto Rico  0.1