Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
11 Sep 2018 15 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (13 Sep 18:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 120 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      120 km/h Current Max.

      Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
        Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
        Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
        Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
        Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
        Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
        Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
        Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
        Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 120 980 thousand 60 thousand Dominica
        Green 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 120 920 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
        Green 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 120 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
          GREEN
          		 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
          GREEN
          		 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
          GREEN
          		 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
          GREEN
          		 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
          GREEN
          		 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
          GREEN
          		 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
          GREEN
          		 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
          GREEN
          		 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
          GREEN
          		 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
          GREEN
          		 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
          GREEN
          		 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
          GREEN
          		 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
          GREEN
          		 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -46.9
          GREEN
          		 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -48.1
          GREEN
          		 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -49.7
          GREEN
          		 16 12 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -51.8
          GREEN
          		 16 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -54.4
          GREEN
          		 16 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 400000 people 14.9, -57.1 Dominica
          GREEN
          		 16 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 1 million people 15.1, -59.9 Saint Lucia
          GREEN
          		 16 14 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 15.5, -65.5
          GREEN
          		 16 15 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.5, -71
          GREEN
          		 16 16 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.5, -75
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Dubuc, Dominica. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 18:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (13 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 11 Sep 2018 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Dubuc Dominica  0.3
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Scotts Head Dominica  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 19:00 Roseau Dominica  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 19:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 17:00 Lero Martinique  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 17:00 Sainte Pierre Martinique  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 20:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 17:00 Basse-Pointe Martinique  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 20:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 21:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 21:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1