Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
13 Sep 2018 09 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (13 Sep 17:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 74 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      74 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 1.5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
        Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
        Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
        Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
        Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
        Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
        Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
        Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
        Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
        Green 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 120 980 thousand 60 thousand Dominica
        Green 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 120 920 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
        Green 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 120 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
        Green 17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 111 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
        Green 18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 102 820 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
        Green 19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 93 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
        Green 20 12 Sep 2018 15:00 93 1000 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
        Green 21 12 Sep 2018 21:00 93 1.2 million No people Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Jamaica
        Green 22 13 Sep 2018 03:00 83 1.2 million No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat
        Green 23 13 Sep 2018 09:00 74 1.5 million No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
          GREEN
          		 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
          GREEN
          		 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
          GREEN
          		 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
          GREEN
          		 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
          GREEN
          		 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
          GREEN
          		 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
          GREEN
          		 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
          GREEN
          		 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
          GREEN
          		 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
          GREEN
          		 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
          GREEN
          		 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
          GREEN
          		 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
          GREEN
          		 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -46.9
          GREEN
          		 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -48.1
          GREEN
          		 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -49.7
          GREEN
          		 17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -51.3
          GREEN
          		 18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.5, -52.3
          GREEN
          		 19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, -53.5
          GREEN
          		 20 12 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15, -54.7
          GREEN
          		 21 12 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people <1000 people 15.4, -56.6
          GREEN
          		 22 13 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.1 million people 15.3, -58 Antigua and Barbuda
          GREEN
          		 23 13 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 1.4 million people 15.4, -59.7 Montserrat
          GREEN
          		 23 13 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.2 million people 15.5, -61.8 Montserrat
          GREEN
          		 23 14 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.5, -64.8
          GREEN
          		 23 14 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.5, -67.8
          GREEN
          		 23 15 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.4, -70.4
          GREEN
          		 23 16 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.6, -74.8
          GREEN
          		 23 17 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 16.9, -78.5
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Martinique
          Dominica
          Guadeloupe
          St. Lucia
          Barbados
          St. Vincent & the Grenadines
          Antigua & Barbuda
          Montserrat
          St. Kitts & Nevis

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Martinique Martinique
          Dominica Dominica
          Guadeloupe Guadeloupe
          St. Lucia Saint Lucia
          Barbados Barbados
          St. Vincent & the Grenadines Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
          Antigua & Barbuda Antigua and Barbuda
          Montserrat Montserrat
          St. Kitts & Nevis Saint Kitts and Nevis

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Fort-de-France Martinique Capital 89000 people
          Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 17000 people
          Moule Guadeloupe City -
          Castries Castries St. Lucia Capital 13000 people
          Capesterre Guadeloupe City -
          Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City -
          Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people
          Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people
          Bridgetown Saint Michael Barbados Capital 97000 people
          Saint John's Antigua and Barbuda Capital 22000 people
          Plymouth Saint Anthony Montserrat Capital no people
          Charlestown St. Kitts and Nevis City 1500 people
          Newcastle St. Kitts and Nevis City <1000 people
          Basseterre St. Kitts and Nevis Capital 13000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Le Lamentin FDF 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800
          Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
          La Desirade Les Galets DSD unknown 0
          Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000
          Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0
          Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500
          St. Francois SFC unknown 0
          Vigie SLU 6 Civ. Paved Yes 6200
          Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0
          Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0
          Le Raizet PTP 11 Civ. Paved Yes 11400
          Hewanorra International UVF 3 Civ. Paved Yes 9000
          Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0
          Grantley Adams International BGI 52 Civ. Paved Yes 11000
          V C Bird International ANU 19 Civ. Paved Yes 9000
          W H Bramble (Abandoned) 12 0
          Montserrat Blackburne MNI unknown 0
          Newcastle NEV 8 Civ. Paved No 4000
          Golden Rock SKB 52 Civ. Paved Yes 8000

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          La Trinite Martinique
          Le Robert Martinique
          Le Marin Martinique
          Fort de France MQFDF Martinique
          Saint Pierre Martinique
          Grand Bourg Guadeloupe
          Roseau DMRSU Dominica
          Saint Louis Guadeloupe
          Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica
          Castries LCSLU Saint Lucia
          Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe
          Cul de Sac Bay LCCDS Saint Lucia
          Pointe-a-Pitre GPPTP Guadeloupe
          Port Louis Guadeloupe
          Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe
          Vieux Fort Saint Lucia
          Speightstown Barbados
          Bridgetown BBBGI Barbados
          Parham Harbour Antigua and Barbuda
          Saint Johns AGSJO Antigua and Barbuda
          Plymouth Montserrat
          Charlestown KNNEV Saint Kitts and Nevis
          Basseterre KNBAS Saint Kitts and Nevis

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Saint Pierre la Manzo Manche 1978
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Le Bourg, Guadeloupe. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 17:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (18 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 12 Sep 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          13 Sep 2018 17:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 16:00 Baie-Mahault Guadeloupe  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 16:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 15:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 17:00 Sainte-Anne Guadeloupe  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 17:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 15:00 Pointe-a-Pitre Guadeloupe  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
          16 Sep 2018 21:00 Brazalitta Jamaica  0.1
          16 Sep 2018 21:00 Mahoe Gardens Jamaica  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 16:00 Saint-Louis Guadeloupe  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 15:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 17:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 16:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 19:00 Bouillante Guadeloupe  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 16:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 15:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.1