Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
09 Sep 2018 03 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 157 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

157 km/h Current

Up to 190000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm 		Population in
Cat. 1 or higher		 Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
GREEN
 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
GREEN
 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
GREEN
 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
GREEN
 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
GREEN
 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
GREEN
 6 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.4, -38.7
GREEN
 6 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.9
GREEN
 6 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 14.5, -43.5
GREEN
 6 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 14.5, -46.1
GREEN
 6 12 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.5, -51.5
GREEN
 6 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 730000 people 210000 people 14.6, -57 Martinique
GREEN
 6 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15, -62.9
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Martinique

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Martinique Martinique 370000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Le Robert Martinique
La Trinite Martinique
Saint Pierre Martinique
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Le Bourg, Guadeloupe. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (18 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 12 Sep 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.2
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Baie-Mahault Guadeloupe  0.2
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Sainte-Anne Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Pointe-a-Pitre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
16 Sep 2018 21:00 Brazalitta Jamaica  0.1
16 Sep 2018 21:00 Mahoe Gardens Jamaica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Saint-Louis Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Bouillante Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.1