Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for SERGIO-18 in Mexico from 29 Sep 2018 15:30 UTC to 12 Oct 2018 18:00 UTC

12 Oct 2018 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	222 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	222 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.8 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	54	12 Oct 2018 18:00	56	1.8 million	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	29 Sep 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.3, -101.5
2	29 Sep 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12, -102.3
3	30 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	12.2, -102.8
4	30 Sep 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12, -103.8
5	30 Sep 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.1, -104.8
6	30 Sep 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	11.6, -105.8
7	01 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	11.6, -106.7
8	01 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.5, -108
9	01 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.5, -108.9
10	01 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.3, -110.4
11	02 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.1, -111.5
12	02 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	10.7, -112.7
13	02 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	10.6, -113.5
14	02 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	11.1, -114.6
15	03 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	11.5, -115.4
16	03 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	12, -116.3
17	03 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	12.6, -117
18	03 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	13, -117.6
19	04 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	13.5, -118
20	04 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	14.1, -118.5
21	04 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	14.7, -119
22	04 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	15.3, -119.6
23	05 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	15.7, -120.2
24	05 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	15.9, -120.8
25	05 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	16, -121.5
26	05 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	15.8, -122
27	06 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	15.4, -122.5
28	06 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	15, -123.2
29	06 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	14.8, -123.7
30	06 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	14.6, -124.4
31	07 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	14.5, -125.1
32	07 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	14.5, -125.8
33	07 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	14.5, -126.6
34	07 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	14.6, -127.3
35	08 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	14.8, -127.8
36	08 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	15, -128.1
37	08 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	15.2, -128.5
38	08 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.5, -128.5
39	09 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.8, -128.5
40	09 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	16.1, -128.2
41	09 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	16.4, -127.7
42	09 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	16.7, -127
43	10 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	17.2, -126.1
44	10 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	17.4, -125.2
45	10 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	18.1, -124
46	10 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	18.7, -123.1
47	11 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	19.6, -122
48	11 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	20.5, -120.8
49	11 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	21.5, -119.4
50	11 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	6600 people	22.8, -117.5	Mexico
51	12 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	95000 people	24.1, -116.2	Mexico
52	12 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.5 million people	25.4, -114.7	Mexico
53	12 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.9 million people	26.8, -112.8	Mexico
54	12 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	28.5, -110.7	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Sonora	Mexico
Chihuahua	Mexico
Baja California Sur	Mexico
Baja California	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Empalme	Sonora	Mexico	City	38000 people
Guaymas	Sonora	Mexico	City	100000 people
Hermosillo	Sonora	Mexico	Major city	590000 people
Ciudad Obregón	Sonora	Mexico	City	-
Yaqui	Sonora	Mexico	City	14000 people
Rosario	Sonora	Mexico	City	-
San Juanico	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
General Jose Maria Yanez International	GYM	27	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7700
Gen Ignacio P Garcia International	HMO	192	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500
Bahia Kino North		6				0
Ciudad Obregon	CEN	74	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500
Villa Juarez South		46				0
Santa Rosalia	SRL	unknown				0
Punta Chivato	PCV	unknown				0
Punta Chivato Bulge		2				0
Mulege	MUG	61				0
San Ignacio 1	SGM	244				0
Loreto	LTO	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Guerrero Negro	GUB	18				0
Guerrero Negro		18				0
Abreojos	AJS	unknown				0
Villa Constitucion	VIB	43				0
Bahia Tortugas		40				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Empalme		Mexico
Guaymas	MXGYM	Mexico
Tiburon Island		Mexico
San Marcos Island	MXSMI	Mexico
Santa Rosalia	MXSRL	Mexico
Muleje		Mexico
Bahia Salinas		Mexico
Loreto		Mexico
Prt Venustiano Carranza		Mexico
Puerto San Bartolome		Mexico
San Carlos	MXSCR	Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Ignacio L. Alatorre	Punta de Agua	Matape	1970
	Abelardo	Sonora	1948
	El Molini	Sonora	1991
	Comaquito	Babasac	1977
Alvaro Obregon	Alvaro Obregon	Yaqui	1952
Novillo	Plutarco Elias Calles	El Yaqui	1964

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 01 Oct 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)