Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LUBAN-18 in Yemen from 08 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC to 12 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC

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GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUBAN-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Yemen
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (14 Oct 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Yemen)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	111 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	08 Oct 2018 00:00	120	350 thousand	No people	Oman, Yemen
2	08 Oct 2018 06:00	130	90 thousand	20 thousand	Yemen
3	08 Oct 2018 12:00	139	150 thousand	No people	Yemen
4	08 Oct 2018 18:00	120	120 thousand	No people	Yemen
5	09 Oct 2018 00:00	130	620 thousand	No people	Yemen, Somalia
6	09 Oct 2018 06:00	130	1.3 million	No people	Yemen
7	09 Oct 2018 12:00	120	1.5 million	No people	Yemen
8	09 Oct 2018 18:00	139	720 thousand	210 thousand	Yemen
9	10 Oct 2018 00:00	139	1.5 million	310 thousand	Yemen
10	10 Oct 2018 06:00	139	1.5 million	40 thousand	Yemen
11	10 Oct 2018 12:00	139	950 thousand	40 thousand	Yemen
12	10 Oct 2018 18:00	139	1.1 million	70 thousand	Yemen
13	11 Oct 2018 00:00	139	1.3 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
14	11 Oct 2018 06:00	130	920 thousand	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
15	11 Oct 2018 12:00	120	1.2 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
16	11 Oct 2018 18:00	120	1.5 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
17	12 Oct 2018 00:00	111	1.3 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	08 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.4, 62.3
2	08 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.3, 61.6
3	08 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.2, 61.6
4	08 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.5, 61.2
5	09 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.9, 60.6
6	09 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.2, 60.1
7	09 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.4, 59.7
8	09 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.1, 59.9
9	10 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.1, 59.1
10	10 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.2, 58.9
11	10 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.4, 58.5
12	10 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.5, 58.5
13	11 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.5, 58.1
14	11 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	14.5, 58.1
15	11 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.5, 57.9
16	11 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.5, 57.8
17	12 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.6, 57.6
17	12 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.7, 56.8
17	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	50000 people	14.7, 55.6	Yemen
17	13 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	210000 people	14.7, 54.1	Yemen
17	14 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1.3 million people	14.8, 52.4	Yemen
17	15 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.2 million people	15.7, 49.4	Yemen
17	16 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	17.6, 48.3	Yemen

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Oman
Yemen
Saudi Arabia

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Zufar	Oman
Aden	Yemen
Al Mahrah	Yemen
Ash Sharqiyah	Saudi Arabia
Hadhramaut	Yemen
'Ataq	Yemen
Undefined	Yemen

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ghayl Ba Wazir		Yemen	City	-
Al Mukalla		Yemen	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Socotra	SCT	46	Civ.	Unpaved	No	8200
Al Gaidah	AAY	30	Civ.	Paved	No	8800
Qishn	IHN	30	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Riyan	RIY	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Mukalla	MKX	unknown				0
Canoxy		1003				0
Sayun	GXF	640	Civ.	Unpaved	No	9800

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Hadibu		Yemen
Damqawt		Yemen
Ras Fartak		Yemen
Nishtun	YENIS	Yemen
Sayhut		Yemen
Ash Shihr		Yemen
Mukalla	YEMKX	Yemen

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Itab, Yemen. This height is estimated for 14 Oct 2018 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (17 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 12 Oct 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	Itab	Yemen	0.3
	14 Oct 2018 07:00	Qishn	Yemen	0.3
	14 Oct 2018 10:00	Al Qumrah	Yemen	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 11:00	Sharkhat	Yemen	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 12:00	Tamnum	Yemen	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 05:00	Saqr	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 01:00	Tabut	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 01:00	Hayrut	Yemen	0.1
	11 Oct 2018 22:00	Qaysad	Oman	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 01:00	Nishtun	Yemen	0.1
	11 Oct 2018 22:00	Lakabi	Oman	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 15:00	Raida	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 15:00	Hasana	Yemen	0.1
	11 Oct 2018 22:00	Sawqirah	Oman	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 05:00	Haswayn	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 13:00	Musaina'a	Yemen	0.1
	11 Oct 2018 21:00	Duqm	Oman	0.1