Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico
22 Oct 2018 21 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Glide number: TC-2018-000168-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 190 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1 m (23 Oct 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 204 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 250 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

204 km/h Current

Up to 800000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm 		Population in
Cat. 1 or higher		 Countries
Green 1 20 Oct 2018 09:00 185 Few people No people Mexico
Green 2 20 Oct 2018 15:00 185 7 thousand No people Mexico
Orange 3 20 Oct 2018 21:00 148 3.3 million 140 thousand Mexico
Orange 4 21 Oct 2018 03:00 167 3 million 190 thousand Mexico
Orange 5 21 Oct 2018 09:00 167 5.6 million 900 thousand Mexico
Red 6 21 Oct 2018 15:00 204 4.6 million 920 thousand Mexico
Red 7 21 Oct 2018 21:00 204 5.8 million 340 thousand Mexico
Red 8 22 Oct 2018 03:00 185 4.5 million 510 thousand Mexico
Red 9 22 Oct 2018 09:00 213 10.3 million 140 thousand Mexico
Red 10 22 Oct 2018 15:00 250 4.5 million 870 thousand Mexico
Red 11 22 Oct 2018 21:00 204 4.9 million 800 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 20 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, -104.9
GREEN
 2 20 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.8, -105.7
GREEN
 3 20 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.2, -105.8
GREEN
 4 21 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 15.7, -106.1
GREEN
 5 21 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.2, -106.5
GREEN
 6 21 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 16.6, -106.7
GREEN
 7 21 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 17, -107
GREEN
 8 22 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 17.7, -107.2
GREEN
 9 22 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 18.2, -107.1
GREEN
 10 22 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 5 259 11000 people no people 19.1, -107.2 Mexico
GREEN
 11 22 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 4 250 450000 people no people 19.7, -107.2 Mexico
GREEN
 11 23 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 231 1.9 million people 6200 people 20.7, -107.1 Mexico
RED
 11 23 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 2.7 million people 800000 people 22, -106.5 Mexico
GREEN
 11 24 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 2.9 million people no people 23.9, -104.7 Mexico
GREEN
 11 24 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 26.2, -101.5 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people
Durango Mexico 1.4 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Tecuala Nayarit Mexico City 14000 people 349 km
Acaponeta Nayarit Mexico City 18000 people 364 km
Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people 373 km
Durango Durango Mexico Major city 440000 people 545 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Isla Maria Madre 5 0 226 km
Teacapan 6 0 351 km
Acaponeta 84 0 360 km
Rancho los Cabras 3 0 366 km
Guadalupe Victoria DGO 1857 Civ. Paved Yes 9500 562 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Presa Guadalupe Victoria Tunal 1962 535 km
Presa Pena del Aguila LaSauceda 1955 564 km
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Isla de Palmito del Verde, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2018 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (15 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 22 Oct 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  1.0
23 Oct 2018 22:00 La Puerta Mexico  1.0
23 Oct 2018 23:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.9
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Novillero Mexico  0.9
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.8
23 Oct 2018 21:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.6
23 Oct 2018 21:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.6
23 Oct 2018 21:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.5
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.5
23 Oct 2018 21:00 San Blas Mexico  0.3
23 Oct 2018 23:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1