Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for WILLA-18 in Mexico from 20 Oct 2018 09:00 UTC to 22 Oct 2018 21:00 UTC

22 Oct 2018 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS

Impact Single TC

HWRF

ECMWF

GFS

Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2018-000168-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	190 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	250 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1 m (23 Oct 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GDACS Current	204 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	2.5
GDACS Overall	250 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

204 km/h Current Max.

Up to 800000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	20 Oct 2018 09:00	185	Few people	No people	Mexico
2	20 Oct 2018 15:00	185	7 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	20 Oct 2018 21:00	148	3.3 million	140 thousand	Mexico
4	21 Oct 2018 03:00	167	3 million	190 thousand	Mexico
5	21 Oct 2018 09:00	167	5.6 million	900 thousand	Mexico
6	21 Oct 2018 15:00	204	4.6 million	920 thousand	Mexico
7	21 Oct 2018 21:00	204	5.8 million	340 thousand	Mexico
8	22 Oct 2018 03:00	185	4.5 million	510 thousand	Mexico
9	22 Oct 2018 09:00	213	10.3 million	140 thousand	Mexico
10	22 Oct 2018 15:00	250	4.5 million	870 thousand	Mexico
11	22 Oct 2018 21:00	204	4.9 million	800 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	20 Oct 2018 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.1, -104.9
2	20 Oct 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.8, -105.7
3	20 Oct 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.2, -105.8
4	21 Oct 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15.7, -106.1
5	21 Oct 2018 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	16.2, -106.5
6	21 Oct 2018 15:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	16.6, -106.7
7	21 Oct 2018 21:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	17, -107
8	22 Oct 2018 03:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	17.7, -107.2
9	22 Oct 2018 09:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	18.2, -107.1
10	22 Oct 2018 15:00	Category 5	259	11000 people	no people	19.1, -107.2	Mexico
11	22 Oct 2018 21:00	Category 4	250	450000 people	no people	19.7, -107.2	Mexico
11	23 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 4	231	1.9 million people	6200 people	20.7, -107.1	Mexico
11	23 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 3	204	2.7 million people	800000 people	22, -106.5	Mexico
11	24 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	111	2.9 million people	no people	23.9, -104.7	Mexico
11	24 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	26.2, -101.5	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population
Nayarit	Mexico	890000 people
Sinaloa	Mexico	2.3 million people
Durango	Mexico	1.4 million people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Tecuala	Nayarit	Mexico	City	14000 people
Acaponeta	Nayarit	Mexico	City	18000 people
Escuinapa	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	28000 people
Durango	Durango	Mexico	Major city	440000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Isla Maria Madre		5				0
Teacapan		6				0
Acaponeta		84				0
Rancho los Cabras		3				0
Guadalupe Victoria	DGO	1857	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9500

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Presa Guadalupe Victoria	Tunal	1962
	Presa Pena del Aguila	LaSauceda	1955

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.1m in La Puerta, Mexico. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 24 Oct 2018 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Oct 2018 00:00	La Puerta	Mexico	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 00:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	1.0
	24 Oct 2018 00:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.8
	24 Oct 2018 00:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.7
	24 Oct 2018 01:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.7
	24 Oct 2018 00:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.6
	24 Oct 2018 00:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.6
	23 Oct 2018 23:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.5
	23 Oct 2018 23:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.5
	23 Oct 2018 23:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.4
	23 Oct 2018 23:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2018 23:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	24 Oct 2018 01:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	24 Oct 2018 02:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.