Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for YUTU-18
in Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone YUTU-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population 11 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (24 Oct 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 278 km/h 1.1 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 1.2 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

278 km/h Current

Up to 51000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 231 210 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 5 22 Oct 2018 12:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 6 22 Oct 2018 18:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 7 23 Oct 2018 00:00 222 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 8 23 Oct 2018 06:00 213 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 231 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 10 23 Oct 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 11 24 Oct 2018 00:00 259 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 12 24 Oct 2018 06:00 278 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 13 24 Oct 2018 12:00 287 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 14 24 Oct 2018 18:00 278 260 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 <1000 people no people 8.4, 157.6
GREEN
2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 <1000 people no people 8.6, 156.8
GREEN
3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 9, 155.9
GREEN
4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 <1000 people no people 9.8, 155
GREEN
5 22 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 10.6, 153.8
GREEN
6 22 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 <1000 people no people 10.9, 152.7
GREEN
7 23 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 <1000 people no people 11.5, 151.6
GREEN
8 23 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 <1000 people no people 11.8, 150.6
GREEN
9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 200000 people no people 12, 149.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
10 23 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 210000 people no people 12.6, 148.9 Guam
RED
11 24 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 210000 people 50000 people 13.3, 147.9 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
12 24 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 210000 people 51000 people 13.9, 147.1 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
13 24 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 5 287 210000 people 51000 people 14.6, 146.2 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
14 24 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 278 210000 people 49000 people 15.3, 145.3 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
14 25 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 210000 people no people 16.1, 143.5 Guam
GREEN
14 25 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 16.7, 141.6
GREEN
14 26 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 17.3, 139.3
GREEN
14 26 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 17.9, 137
GREEN
14 27 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 18.8, 132.4
GREEN
14 28 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 241 42000 people no people 19.5, 129.8 Japan
GREEN
14 29 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 20.4, 127.4
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Saipan Northern Mariana Islands Capital 62000 people 51 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Commonwealth Health Center 5 0 46 km
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 48 km
Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700 50 km
Nikko 18 0 52 km
Dynasty 46 0 52 km
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 125 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Saipan MPSPN Northern Mariana Islands 46 km
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands 50 km
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands 116 km
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 130 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Sunharon Roads, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 24 Oct 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 14:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
24 Oct 2018 14:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.1