Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for YUTU-18 in Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands from 21 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC to 25 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for YUTU-18

in Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands

25 Oct 2018 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone YUTU-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population	11 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	287 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.1 m (24 Oct 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	259 km/h	1.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	287 km/h	1.1 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

259 km/h Current Max.

Up to 51000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	21 Oct 2018 12:00	231	210 thousand	2 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
2	21 Oct 2018 18:00	204	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
3	22 Oct 2018 00:00	204	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
4	22 Oct 2018 06:00	176	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
5	22 Oct 2018 12:00	204	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
6	22 Oct 2018 18:00	204	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
7	23 Oct 2018 00:00	222	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
8	23 Oct 2018 06:00	213	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
9	23 Oct 2018 12:00	231	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
10	23 Oct 2018 18:00	250	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
11	24 Oct 2018 00:00	259	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
12	24 Oct 2018 06:00	278	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
13	24 Oct 2018 12:00	287	210 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
14	24 Oct 2018 18:00	278	260 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
15	25 Oct 2018 00:00	269	330 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
16	25 Oct 2018 06:00	269	2.1 million	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
17	25 Oct 2018 12:00	259	4.6 million	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	21 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	<1000 people	8.4, 157.6
2	21 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	<1000 people	8.6, 156.8
3	22 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	9, 155.9
4	22 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	9.8, 155
5	22 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	10.6, 153.8
6	22 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	<1000 people	10.9, 152.7
7	23 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	<1000 people	11.5, 151.6
8	23 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	<1000 people	11.8, 150.6
9	23 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	210000 people	12, 149.6	Northern Mariana Islands
10	23 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	210000 people	12.6, 148.9	Guam
11	24 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 4	241	50000 people	210000 people	13.3, 147.9	Northern Mariana Islands
12	24 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 5	269	51000 people	210000 people	13.9, 147.1	Northern Mariana Islands
13	24 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 5	287	51000 people	210000 people	14.6, 146.2	Northern Mariana Islands
14	24 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 5	278	49000 people	210000 people	15.3, 145.3	Northern Mariana Islands
15	25 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 5	269	no people	210000 people	15.8, 144.2	Guam
16	25 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 5	269	no people	210000 people	16, 143.2	Guam
17	25 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	16.3, 142.3
17	26 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	16.6, 140.2
17	26 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	17.2, 137.8
17	27 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	17.9, 135.3
17	27 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	18.4, 132.8
17	28 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 4	213	no people	2.5 million people	18.7, 128.8	Philippines
17	29 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	4.4 million people	19.1, 126.5	China
17	30 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	19.9, 124.8

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Northern Mariana Is.	Northern Mariana Islands

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Saipan		Northern Mariana Islands	Capital	62000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
West Tinian	TIQ	82	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
Commonwealth Health Center		5				0
Dynasty		46				0
Saipan International	SPN	66	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8700
Nikko		18				0
Rota I International	ROP	185	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Tinian		Northern Mariana Islands
Saipan	MPSPN	Northern Mariana Islands
Rota		Northern Mariana Islands
Farallon de Medinilla		Northern Mariana Islands

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.1m in Sunharon Roads, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 25 Oct 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Oct 2018 15:00	Sunharon Roads	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 15:00	Afetna	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 15:00	Susupi	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 15:00	Laolao	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 15:00	Chalan Kanoa	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 15:00	Aslito	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 15:00	Saipan	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 15:00	Kagman	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 16:00	Garapan	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 16:00	Mutcho	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 16:00	Tanapag	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 16:00	San Roque	Northern Mariana Islands	1.1
	24 Oct 2018 14:00	Rota	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	24 Oct 2018 14:00	Sinapalo	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	24 Oct 2018 16:00	Songsong	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	24 Oct 2018 16:00	Teteto	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.