Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for YUTU-18
in Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone YUTU-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population 11 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (24 Oct 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 222 km/h 1.1 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 1.2 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

222 km/h Current

Up to 990000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 231 210 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 5 22 Oct 2018 12:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 6 22 Oct 2018 18:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 7 23 Oct 2018 00:00 222 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 8 23 Oct 2018 06:00 213 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 231 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 10 23 Oct 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 11 24 Oct 2018 00:00 259 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 12 24 Oct 2018 06:00 278 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 13 24 Oct 2018 12:00 287 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 14 24 Oct 2018 18:00 278 260 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 15 25 Oct 2018 00:00 269 330 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 16 25 Oct 2018 06:00 269 2.1 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 17 25 Oct 2018 12:00 259 4.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 18 25 Oct 2018 18:00 241 9.3 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 19 26 Oct 2018 00:00 241 10.4 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 20 26 Oct 2018 06:00 241 33.8 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 21 26 Oct 2018 12:00 204 70.2 million 670 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 22 26 Oct 2018 18:00 222 54.3 million 1000 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 <1000 people no people 8.4, 157.6
GREEN
2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 <1000 people no people 8.6, 156.8
GREEN
3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 9, 155.9
GREEN
4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 <1000 people no people 9.8, 155
GREEN
5 22 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 10.6, 153.8
GREEN
6 22 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 <1000 people no people 10.9, 152.7
GREEN
7 23 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 <1000 people no people 11.5, 151.6
GREEN
8 23 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 <1000 people no people 11.8, 150.6
GREEN
9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 200000 people no people 12, 149.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
10 23 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 210000 people no people 12.6, 148.9 Guam
RED
11 24 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 210000 people 50000 people 13.3, 147.9 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
12 24 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 210000 people 51000 people 13.9, 147.1 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
13 24 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 5 287 210000 people 51000 people 14.6, 146.2 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
14 24 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 278 210000 people 49000 people 15.3, 145.3 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
15 25 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 5 269 210000 people no people 15.8, 144.2 Guam
GREEN
16 25 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 210000 people no people 16, 143.2 Guam
GREEN
17 25 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 16.3, 142.3
GREEN
18 25 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.6, 141.4
GREEN
19 26 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.9, 140.3
GREEN
20 26 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.9, 138.9
GREEN
21 26 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 17.2, 137.6
GREEN
22 26 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 17.6, 136.2
GREEN
22 27 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 17.9, 134.8
GREEN
22 27 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 18.3, 132.3
GREEN
22 28 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 18.5, 130.5
GREEN
22 28 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 241 4.2 million people no people 18.6, 128.7 Philippines
RED
22 29 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 222 46.5 million people 120000 people 18.1, 125.5 Philippines
ORANGE
22 30 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 53.9 million people 940000 people 18.3, 122.5 Philippines
GREEN
22 31 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 2 176 no people no people 19.2, 119.9
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Philippines

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines 1.1 million people
Ilocos Philippines 3.5 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Saipan Northern Mariana Islands Capital 62000 people 1055 km
Bacarra Ilocos Philippines City 9600 people 1653 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 1040 km
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 1047 km
Dynasty 46 0 1050 km
Commonwealth Health Center 5 0 1051 km
Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700 1054 km
Nikko 18 0 1056 km
Taggat 5 0 1606 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 1032 km
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands 1048 km
Saipan MPSPN Northern Mariana Islands 1050 km
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands 1067 km
Port San Vicente Philippines 1492 km
Aparri PHAPR Philippines 1543 km
Abulog Philippines 1563 km
Calayan Philippines 1566 km
Claveria Philippines 1603 km
Dirique Inlet Philippines 1656 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Sunharon Roads, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (84 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 22 of 26 Oct 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Gonzaga Philippines  0.4
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Bawa Philippines  0.4
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Casambalangan Philippines  0.4
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Cabiraoan Philippines  0.4
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Buguey Philippines  0.4
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Balza Philippines  0.3
30 Oct 2018 17:00 San Vincente Philippines  0.3
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Punta Philippines  0.3
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Bisagu Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Aparri Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Linao Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Manila Philippines  0.2
29 Oct 2018 18:00 Wright Philippines  0.2
29 Oct 2018 18:00 Pequit Philippines  0.2
29 Oct 2018 18:00 Pabanong Philippines  0.2
29 Oct 2018 18:00 Hinabangan Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Alilinu Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Meycauayan Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Tanza Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Tinajeros Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Caloocan Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Catuguran Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Pamarauan Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 14:00 Cavite Philippines  0.1
29 Oct 2018 18:00 Bangon Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Tehero Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 15:00 Tanza Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 15:00 Binakayan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Naguilian Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Abulug Philippines  0.1
29 Oct 2018 18:00 Mualbual Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Cabuluan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Amaya Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Minabul Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 16:00 Bateng Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 16:00 Alacan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Poso Philippines  0.1
24 Oct 2018 14:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
24 Oct 2018 14:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Naic Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 15:00 General Trias Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Imus Philippines  0.1
29 Oct 2018 18:00 Catbalogan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 02:00 Canaoalan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 02:00 Carael Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 02:00 Dagupan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Fugu Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 San Juan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Bangan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Taccuen Philippines  0.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
29 Oct 2018 17:00 Bagas Philippines  0.1
29 Oct 2018 16:00 Bikal Philippines  0.1
29 Oct 2018 18:00 Pandan Philippines  0.1
29 Oct 2018 20:00 Panganiban Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Chendai China  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Hsi-pu China  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Chengguanzhen China  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Guleitou China  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Gangkou China  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Huqiu China  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Wutian China  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Hsia-mei China  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Liu'ao China  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Gongqiancun China  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Chencheng China  0.1
30 Oct 2018 17:00 Cadagatan Philippines  0.1
29 Oct 2018 18:00 Macalonud Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 02:00 Binmale Philippines  0.1
29 Oct 2018 18:00 Babatngon Philippines  0.1
29 Oct 2018 19:00 Pagsanjan Philippines  0.1