Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PENNY-18
in Australia, Papua New Guinea
31 Dec 2018 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PENNY-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Australia, Papua New Guinea
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 120 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (01 Jan 01:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Papua New Guinea)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 102 km/h 1.5 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 120 km/h 1.5 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      102 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 320000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 31 Dec 2018 00:00 102 330 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 2 31 Dec 2018 06:00 102 250 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 3 31 Dec 2018 12:00 102 320 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 31 Dec 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 18000 people -12.8, 139.6 Australia
          GREEN
          		 2 31 Dec 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 7400 people -12.5, 139.3 Australia
          GREEN
          		 3 31 Dec 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 18000 people -12.5, 140.2 Australia
          GREEN
          		 3 01 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 20000 people -12.5, 140.9 Australia
          GREEN
          		 3 01 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 31000 people -12.7, 142.2 Australia
          GREEN
          		 3 02 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 300000 people -13.1, 143.9 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 3 02 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 300000 people -13.6, 146.4 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people <1000 people -15.4, 152.1
          GREEN
          		 3 04 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -16.8, 153.7
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -17.9, 153.1
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Australia
          Papua New Guinea

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Queensland Australia
          Central Papua New Guinea
          Milne Bay Papua New Guinea

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Weipa Queensland Australia City -
          Cooktown Queensland Australia City -
          Mareeba Queensland Australia City 8400 people
          Cairns Queensland Australia Major city 150000 people
          Atherton Queensland Australia City 6900 people
          Gordonvale Queensland Australia City -
          Innisfail Queensland Australia City 10000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Beagle Bay BEE unknown 0
          Weipa WEI 19 Civ. Paved Yes 5300
          Aurukun AUU 9 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
          Scherger 44 Mil. Paved No 10000
          Agnew AGW unknown 0
          Merluna MLV unknown 0
          Moreton MET unknown 0
          Rokeby RKY unknown 0
          Bamaga ABM 15 Civ. Paved Yes 5200
          Pormpuraaw 3 Civ. Paved No 4400
          Thursday Island TIS 13 Civ. Paved Yes 4500
          Batavia Downs BVW unknown 0
          Kubin Island KUG unknown 0
          Badu Island BDD unknown 0
          Lockhart River IRG 23 Civ. Paved Yes 4300
          St. Paul's Mission SVM unknown 0
          Coen CUQ 162 Civ. Unpaved Yes 3900
          Mabuiag Island UBB unknown 0
          Kowanyama KWM 11 Civ. Unpaved Yes 4500
          Rutland Plains RTP unknown 0
          Mitchell River MXQ unknown 0
          Silver Plains SSP unknown 0
          Musgrave MVU unknown 0
          Koolatah KOH unknown 0
          Dunbar DNB unknown 0
          Yorke Islands OKR 3 0
          Dixie DXD unknown 0
          Drumduff DFP unknown 0
          Kalpowar KPP unknown 0
          Murray Islands MYI unknown 0
          Lakefield LFP unknown 0
          Koolburra KKP unknown 0
          Highbury HIG unknown 0
          Laura LUU unknown 0
          Bulimba BIP unknown 0
          Hope Vale HPE unknown 0
          Bizant BZP unknown 0
          Gamboola GBP unknown 0
          Laura Station LUT unknown 0
          Greenvale Miner Lake GVP unknown 0
          Wrotham Park WPK unknown 0
          Lizard Island LZR 21 0
          Cooktown CTN 8 Civ. Paved Yes 5300
          Helenvale HLV unknown 0
          Bloomfield BFC unknown 0
          Chillagoe LLG 338 Civ. Paved No 3000
          Port Douglas PTI unknown 0
          Mareeba MRG 475 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
          Cairns CNS 3 Civ. Paved Yes 10400
          Innisfail IFL 14 Civ. Paved Yes 3000
          Kupiano KUP unknown 0
          Cape Rodney CPN 5 0
          Abau ABW unknown 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Weipa AUWEI Coral Sea Islands
          Thursday Island AUTIS Coral Sea Islands
          Cape York Coral Sea Islands
          Port Stewart Coral Sea Islands
          Cape Flattery AUCQP Coral Sea Islands
          Cooktown AUCTN Coral Sea Islands
          Port Souglas Coral Sea Islands
          Cairns AUCNS Coral Sea Islands
          Innisfail Coral Sea Islands
          Mourilyan AUMOU Coral Sea Islands
          Kupiano Papua New Guinea
          Abau PGABW Papua New Guinea

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Tinaroo Falls Barron 1958
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          1.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.5m in Tamarike, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 01 Jan 2019 01:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (220 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 31 Dec 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Tamarike Indonesia  1.5
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Sarire Indonesia  1.5
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Kumbe Indonesia  1.5
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Anansai Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Merauke Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Wendu Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Matara Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Urum Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Onggalie Indonesia  1.3
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Kotad Indonesia  1.3
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Dumande Indonesia  1.3
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Alatepi Indonesia  1.3
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Mapoon Australia  1.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Port Kennedy Australia  1.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Hammond I Australia  1.2
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Seisia Australia  1.1
          31 Dec 2018 08:00 Taroea Anim Indonesia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Cowel Creek Australia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Bula Papua New Guinea  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Badu Australia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Cape York Australia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Jara Papua New Guinea  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 08:00 Birab Indonesia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Alakoe Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Papisote Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Welab Indonesia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Moegaigare Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Per Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Amborip Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Jow Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Otsjanep Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Biwarlaut Indonesia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Okaba Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Agats Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 09:00 Dolatanden Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Gelib Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 18:00 Kladar Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 18:00 Sabon Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 18:00 Tor Indonesia  0.9
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Kobiem Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Wamal Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Komoran Indonesia  0.8
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Alyangula Australia  0.8
          02 Jan 2019 05:00 Sidabadu Papua New Guinea  0.8
          01 Jan 2019 09:00 Weipa Australia  0.7
          01 Jan 2019 09:00 Weipa South Australia  0.7
          01 Jan 2019 03:00 Numbulwar Australia  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 21:00 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 21:00 Wan Indonesia  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 22:00 Konerau Indonesia  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 22:00 Selemit Indonesia  0.7
          02 Jan 2019 07:00 Saibai Australia  0.6
          02 Jan 2019 07:00 Hamlet of Togo Papua New Guinea  0.6
          02 Jan 2019 07:00 Mabaduan Papua New Guinea  0.6
          02 Jan 2019 07:00 Waidoro Papua New Guinea  0.6
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Amamapare Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Ndapurutiri Indonesia  0.5
          01 Jan 2019 05:00 Caburinga Village Australia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Sanindara Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 09:00 Timuka Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Keawkwa Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Sakaoeni Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Mimako Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Agatebi Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 08:00 Tanam Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 08:00 Kamboeriami Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Ipirawea Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Naoer Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 05:00 Running Creek Australia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Sajengga Indonesia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Basada Indonesia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Kobroor Indonesia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Masian Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Moegoetira Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 19:00 Ok Village Australia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Pono Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Amar Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Uta Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Aoem Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Tambani Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 09:00 Kobadangar Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Wakia Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Aloszville Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Kinara Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Djoering Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Longar Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Baimoeh Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Nhulunbuy Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Umuk Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 09:00 Gomo Gomo Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Krai Indonesia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 14:00 Lower Tully Australia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 17:00 South Mission Beach Australia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 15:00 Halifax Australia  0.3
          04 Jan 2019 04:00 Banana Pocket Australia  0.3
          04 Jan 2019 04:00 Lethebrook Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Paraoka Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Kipia Maparpa Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Sege Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 09:00 Doka Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Oud Krai Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Krei-lama Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Cassady Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Te Kowai Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Taffy Islet Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Yirrkala Mission Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Yirrkala Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Kaisweri Indonesia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 04:00 Midgeton Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Kedjabi Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Rabal Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Kangoerma Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Lucinda Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 04:00 Cannonvale Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 04:00 Airlie Australia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Inanwatatan Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Gove Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 13:00 Coolbie Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 15:00 Mutarnee Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 13:00 Moongobulla Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 15:00 Tarera Indonesia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Glenella Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 North Mackay Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Mackay Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Cremorne Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Slade Point Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Amhurst Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Umari Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Saga Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 19:00 Kulinchin Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 08:00 Etowri Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 08:00 Nindaroo Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Bakers Creek Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 08:00 Bucasia Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 08:00 Eimeo Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 08:00 Andergrove Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 08:00 Blacks Beach Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Aiduna Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Bendjoering Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 13:00 Djamboeai Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 13:00 Barakan Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Diommon Indonesia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Carmila Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Flaggy Rock Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Rosella Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Chelona Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 07:00 Elim Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 07:00 Hay Point Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 07:00 Alligator Creek Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Komfane Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Cooktown Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Goemsei Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 14:00 Potawai Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 20:00 Deeral Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 20:00 Bellenden Ker Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Wadjin Indonesia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 10:00 Inveroona Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 10:00 Queens Beach Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 03:00 Mossman Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 03:00 Miallo Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 03:00 Wonga Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 03:00 Port Douglas Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 03:00 Hockley Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 05:00 Ayton Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 14:00 Mohitien Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Kamma Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Yarrabah Aboriginal Community Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Elalie Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 09:00 Seaforth Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Karaum Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Masidan Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Rollingstone Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Kinduro Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 15:00 Innisfail Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 02:00 Hekampan Papua New Guinea  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 02:00 Tagula Papua New Guinea  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Keojabi Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 03:00 Aibinio Papua New Guinea  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Marlasi Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Alardjir Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 14:00 Sewer Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 14:00 Karwai Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Moha Indonesia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 11:00 Carstairs Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 11:00 Jarvisfield Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 11:00 Alva Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 11:00 Rita Island Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 12:00 Merinda Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 12:00 Delta Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 12:00 Bootooloo Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 12:00 Bowen Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 12:00 Yumbabullo Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Ngaibor Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Fekfekai Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 21:00 Ture Ture Papua New Guinea  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Trinity Beach Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Farnborough Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Yeppoon Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Emu Park Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Rebi Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Loetoer Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Oolbun Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Barron Falls Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Freshwater Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Yorkeys Knob Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Stratford Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Tanisepta Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Ranibo Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Degen Indonesia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Kalarka Australia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 06:00 Clairview Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Fatural Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Jerdera Indonesia  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Keakalo Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Gogsiba Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Gadaisu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Bona Bona I Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Auneri Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Silo Silo Papua New Guinea  0.1