Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (21 Jan 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 102 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

102 km/h Current

Up to 7.4 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
GREEN
1 20 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 1.2 million people no people -22.3, 38.8 Mozambique
GREEN
1 21 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 102 2.3 million people no people -20.3, 38.4 Mozambique
GREEN
1 21 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 3.4 million people no people -18.9, 37.7 Mozambique
GREEN
1 22 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 93 7.4 million people no people -17.9, 37 Mozambique
GREEN
1 23 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -16.8, 35.7 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Malawi

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Inhambane Mozambique 1.3 million people
Sofala Mozambique 1.4 million people
Manica Mozambique 870000 people
Zambezia Mozambique 3.4 million people
Tete Mozambique 1.1 million people
Nampula Mozambique 3.2 million people
Southern Malawi 5.2 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 180000 people 664 km
Limbe Malawi City - 941 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Chinde INE unknown 0 600 km
Luabo LBM unknown 0 621 km
Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 666 km
Inhaminga IMG unknown 0 685 km
Pebane PEB unknown 0 714 km
Bajone BJN unknown 0 723 km
Mutarara 48 0 783 km
Nsanje 61 Civ. Unpaved No 3200 820 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Bazaruto Island Mozambique 375 km
Chinde MZINE Mozambique 602 km
Vila Do Chinde Mozambique 606 km
Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique 662 km
Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique 669 km
Pebane MZPEB Mozambique 713 km
Rio Moebase Mozambique 733 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Ocone, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2019 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (99 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 20 Jan 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.8
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Barra Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Amado Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Beira Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Tama Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 17:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 15:00 Manica Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 17:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 17:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 15:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
20 Jan 2019 16:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 17:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 17:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 03:00 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 12:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 23:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 02:00 Afo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 15:00 Jo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 12:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 12:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 12:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 17:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 17:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 17:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 23:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 16:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 16:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 16:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 16:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 16:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 16:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 05:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 01:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 02:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 01:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1