Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
20 Jan 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (22 Jan 06:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 93 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 102 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      93 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 7.9 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
        Green 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 93 5.6 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
        Green 3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 93 10.3 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
        Green 4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 93 7.9 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 880000 people -22.9, 38.8 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 3.6 million people -22.2, 38.9 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 8700 people -21.7, 39.1 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 4 21 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.5 million people -20.2, 38.7 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 4 21 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 2.9 million people -18.8, 37.9 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 4 22 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 5.3 million people -17.8, 37.3 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 4 22 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -16.9, 36.7 Mozambique
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mozambique
          Madagascar
          Malawi

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Inhambane Mozambique
          Sofala Mozambique
          Toliara Madagascar
          Zambezia Mozambique
          Manica Mozambique
          Tete Mozambique
          Southern Malawi
          Niassa Mozambique

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Morombe Toliara Madagascar City -
          Maxixe Mozambique City 120000 people
          Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City -
          Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 190000 people
          Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people
          Tulear Toliara Madagascar Major city -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
          Morombe MXM 5 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Chinde INE unknown 0
          Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
          Luabo LBM unknown 0
          Vila Franca Do Save 30 0
          Tanandava TDV 27 Civ. Unpaved No 4500
          Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
          Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
          Pebane PEB unknown 0
          Toliara TLE 8 Civ. Paved No 6500
          Bajone BJN unknown 0
          Nsanje 61 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Alto Molocue AME unknown 0
          Gurue VJQ unknown 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Bazaruto Island Mozambique
          Vilanculas Mozambique
          Bartolomeo Diaz Mozambique
          Nova Mambone Mozambique
          Morombe MGMXM Madagascar
          Chinde MZINE Mozambique
          Vila Do Chinde Mozambique
          Inhambane MZINH Mozambique
          Manombo MGMOB Madagascar
          Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique
          Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique
          Antongo Madagascar
          Beira MZBEW Mozambique
          Pebane MZPEB Mozambique
          Toliara MGTLE Madagascar
          Rio Moebase Mozambique
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Chamba, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2019 06:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (101 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 20 Jan 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Beira Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Amado Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 05:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 04:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 04:00 Barra Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 07:00 Manica Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 04:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 04:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 07:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Tama Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 05:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 07:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 05:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 05:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
          20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
          22 Jan 2019 08:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 05:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 04:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 07:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 05:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 23:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Afo Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 07:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 14:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 17:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 01:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 01:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 01:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 02:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 21:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 07:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 02:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 01:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 03:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1