Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (21 Jan 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 65 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

65 km/h Current

Up to 5.2 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
Green 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 93 5.6 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
Green 3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 93 10.3 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
Green 4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 93 7.9 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
Green 5 21 Jan 2019 00:00 65 5 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar
Green 6 21 Jan 2019 06:00 65 5.3 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
GREEN
2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 880000 people no people -22.9, 38.8 Mozambique
GREEN
3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 3.5 million people no people -22.2, 38.9 Mozambique
GREEN
4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 8600 people no people -21.7, 39.1 Mozambique
GREEN
5 21 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 680000 people no people -20.9, 38.6 Mozambique
GREEN
6 21 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 1.6 million people no people -20.1, 38.1 Mozambique
GREEN
6 21 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 2.7 million people no people -18.7, 37.4 Mozambique
GREEN
6 22 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -17.6, 37.2 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Zambezia Mozambique 3.4 million people
Sofala Mozambique 1.4 million people
Inhambane Mozambique 1.3 million people
Manica Mozambique 870000 people
Toliara Madagascar 1.8 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 180000 people 277 km
Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people 343 km
Maxixe Mozambique City 110000 people 505 km
Morombe Toliara Madagascar City - 577 km
Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City - 580 km
Tulear Toliara Madagascar Major city - 679 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Chinde INE unknown 0 243 km
Luabo LBM unknown 0 270 km
Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 280 km
Pebane PEB unknown 0 316 km
Bajone BJN unknown 0 323 km
Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800 336 km
Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 359 km
Vila Franca Do Save 30 0 387 km
Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900 502 km
Morombe MXM 5 Civ. Paved No 4200 578 km
Tanandava TDV 27 Civ. Unpaved No 4500 612 km
Toliara TLE 8 Civ. Paved No 6500 686 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Chinde MZINE Mozambique 242 km
Vila Do Chinde Mozambique 242 km
Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique 275 km
Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique 276 km
Pebane MZPEB Mozambique 314 km
Bazaruto Island Mozambique 321 km
Bartolomeo Diaz Mozambique 330 km
Nova Mambone Mozambique 330 km
Rio Moebase Mozambique 340 km
Beira MZBEW Mozambique 343 km
Vilanculas Mozambique 358 km
Inhambane MZINH Mozambique 502 km
Morombe MGMXM Madagascar 577 km
Antongo Madagascar 598 km
Manombo MGMOB Madagascar 640 km
Toliara MGTLE Madagascar 679 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (119 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 21 Jan 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Amado Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Beira Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 17:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Manica Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Barra Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Tama Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 03:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.4
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2019 05:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 05:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 05:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 11:00 Afo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 01:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 17:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 03:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 03:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 02:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 00:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 01:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1