Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
21 Jan 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (22 Jan 00:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 65 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 102 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      65 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 4.5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
        Green 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 93 5.6 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
        Green 3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 93 10.3 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
        Green 4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 93 7.9 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
        Green 5 21 Jan 2019 00:00 65 5 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar
        Green 6 21 Jan 2019 06:00 65 5.3 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar
        Green 7 21 Jan 2019 12:00 65 4.5 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 880000 people -22.9, 38.8 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 3.6 million people -22.2, 38.9 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 8700 people -21.7, 39.1 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 5 21 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 690000 people -20.9, 38.6 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 6 21 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.7 million people -20.1, 38.1 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 7 21 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.7 million people -19.3, 37.4 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 7 22 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.9 million people -18.3, 36.8 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 7 22 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people -17.6, 36.5 Mozambique
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mozambique
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Zambezia Mozambique
          Sofala Mozambique
          Inhambane Mozambique
          Manica Mozambique
          Toliara Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 190000 people
          Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people
          Maxixe Mozambique City 120000 people
          Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City -
          Morombe Toliara Madagascar City -
          Tulear Toliara Madagascar Major city -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Chinde INE unknown 0
          Luabo LBM unknown 0
          Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
          Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
          Vila Franca Do Save 30 0
          Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
          Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
          Morombe MXM 5 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Tanandava TDV 27 Civ. Unpaved No 4500
          Toliara TLE 8 Civ. Paved No 6500

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Vila Do Chinde Mozambique
          Chinde MZINE Mozambique
          Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique
          Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique
          Beira MZBEW Mozambique
          Nova Mambone Mozambique
          Bartolomeo Diaz Mozambique
          Bazaruto Island Mozambique
          Vilanculas Mozambique
          Inhambane MZINH Mozambique
          Morombe MGMXM Madagascar
          Antongo Madagascar
          Manombo MGMOB Madagascar
          Toliara MGTLE Madagascar
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.7 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Mulia, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2019 00:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (123 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 21 Jan 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Amado Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Barra Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Beira Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Manica Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Tama Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 01:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 01:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 01:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2019 01:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.3
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.3
          22 Jan 2019 02:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 06:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 05:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 05:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Afo Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 06:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 06:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 06:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 01:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 17:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 11:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 02:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 14:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 05:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 02:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 20:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 00:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 01:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1