Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NEIL-19
in Tonga
10 Feb 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NEIL-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Tonga
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (09 Feb 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Tonga)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 56 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 65 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

56 km/h Current

Up to 100000 people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm 		Population in
Cat. 1 or higher		 Countries
Green 1 09 Feb 2019 18:00 65 110 thousand No people Tonga
Green 2 10 Feb 2019 00:00 65 110 thousand No people Tonga
Green 3 10 Feb 2019 06:00 56 110 thousand No people Tonga

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 09 Feb 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 5200 people no people -20.9, -174.9
GREEN
 2 10 Feb 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 83000 people no people -22.6, -174.5 Tonga
GREEN
 3 10 Feb 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -24, -173.9
GREEN
 3 10 Feb 2019 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -28.5, -171.7
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Tonga

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Tonga Tonga 98000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Nuku'alofa Tonga Capital 24000 people 345 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Eua Kaufana EUA unknown 0 310 km
Fua'amotu International TBU 38 Civ. Paved Yes 8700 331 km
Haapai HPA 12 Civ. Unpaved Yes 3900 470 km
Vavau International VAV 72 Civ. Unpaved Yes 5500 600 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Ata Island Tonga 300 km
Eua Island Tonga 310 km
Nuku'alofa TOTBU Tonga 345 km
Pangai TOPAN Tonga 467 km
Neiafu TONEI Tonga 592 km
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Ohonua, Tonga. This height is estimated for 09 Feb 2019 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (12 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 10 Feb 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Ohonua Tonga  0.3
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Kolonga Tonga  0.3
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Niutoua Tonga  0.3
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Fuaamotu Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Mua Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Fatumu Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Nukunuku Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Houma Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Pea Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Nuku'alofa Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Foui Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Pangai Tonga  0.1