Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
09 Mar 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (13 Mar 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 204 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

204 km/h Current

Up to 240000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm 		Population in
Cat. 1 or higher		 Countries
Orange 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 213 6.6 million 870 thousand Mozambique
Orange 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 213 5.6 million 550 thousand Mozambique
Orange 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 204 2.9 million 250 thousand Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 100000 people no people -17, 40.2 Mozambique
GREEN
 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17, 41.3 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 1200 people no people -16.9, 42 Madagascar
GREEN
 3 10 Mar 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 83 36000 people no people -17, 42.7 Madagascar
GREEN
 3 10 Mar 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 150000 people no people -17.1, 42.8 Madagascar
GREEN
 3 11 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 1 139 150000 people no people -17.5, 42.7 Madagascar
GREEN
 3 11 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -17.8, 42 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
 3 12 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 3 194 1.3 million people no people -18.5, 40.1 Mozambique
ORANGE
 3 13 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 3 204 2.3 million people 240000 people -19.1, 37.6 Mozambique
GREEN
 3 14 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -18.9, 35.8 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Zambezia Mozambique 3.4 million people
Sofala Mozambique 1.4 million people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Chinde INE unknown 0 623 km
Luabo LBM unknown 0 644 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Vila Do Chinde Mozambique 611 km
Chinde MZINE Mozambique 617 km
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 13 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (123 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 09 Mar 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.5
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Amado Mozambique  0.5
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.4
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.4
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.4
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Beira Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 11:00 Manica Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Tama Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 14:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 14:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 14:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 07:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 11:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.3
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 05:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 05:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 05:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 07:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 12:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 12:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 06:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 06:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 11:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Napito Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Larde Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 07:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 23:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1