Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 370 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge n.a.
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 120 km/h n.a. n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

120 km/h Current

Up to 330000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 102 290 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 102 1.2 million No people Mexico
Green 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 111 710 thousand No people Mexico
Green 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 120 740 thousand No people Mexico
Green 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 130 1.9 million 70 thousand Mexico
Green 6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 157 830 thousand No people Mexico
Green 7 19 Sep 2019 00:00 148 1.6 million 20 thousand Mexico
Orange 8 19 Sep 2019 06:00 120 2.5 million 120 thousand Mexico
Green 9 19 Sep 2019 12:00 148 2.5 million 120 thousand Mexico
Orange 10 19 Sep 2019 18:00 130 2.5 million 240 thousand Mexico
Orange 11 20 Sep 2019 00:00 120 2.5 million 340 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.3, -99.6
GREEN
2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.1, -100.8
GREEN
3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.7, -101.7
GREEN
4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.7, -102.6
GREEN
5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 880000 people no people 17, -103.2 Mexico
GREEN
6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 111 590000 people no people 17.6, -104 Mexico
GREEN
7 19 Sep 2019 00:00 Category 1 120 1.2 million people 17000 people 18.3, -104.4 Mexico
ORANGE
8 19 Sep 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 1.6 million people 100000 people 19.3, -104.8 Mexico
GREEN
9 19 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 111 750000 people 13000 people 20.2, -105.5 Mexico
GREEN
10 19 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 111 6300 people no people 21.4, -106.7 Mexico
GREEN
11 20 Sep 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 111 6300 people no people 22, -107.3 Mexico
ORANGE
11 20 Sep 2019 12:00 Category 1 120 310000 people 220000 people 22.6, -108.8 Mexico
GREEN
11 21 Sep 2019 00:00 Category 1 130 570000 people 1400 people 23.1, -110.2 Mexico
GREEN
11 21 Sep 2019 12:00 Category 1 130 110000 people <1000 people 23.9, -111.4 Mexico
GREEN
11 22 Sep 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 111 95000 people no people 24.8, -112.5 Mexico
GREEN
11 23 Sep 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 23000 people no people 27.5, -114.8 Mexico
GREEN
11 24 Sep 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 29.5, -116 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Jalisco Mexico 5.7 million people
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people
Colima Mexico 460000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Cabo San Lucas 139 0
La Gloria 34 0
Playa de Oro International ZLO 8 Civ. Paved Yes 7200

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Ipala Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo Mexico
San Lucas Mexico
El Tabaco Mexico
Chamela Mexico
Puerto Madalena Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.