Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam


Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (07 Oct 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)


GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 241 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 278 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)


241 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
1 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 158.1
1 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.4, 154.7
1 06 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 50000 people no people 15.7, 151.4 Northern Mariana Islands
1 07 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 1 130 53000 people no people 16.3, 148.1 Northern Mariana Islands
1 08 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 2 176 no people no people 18, 142.5
1 09 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 20.1, 139
1 10 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 22.3, 137
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.


Name LOCODE Country
Guguan Island Northern Mariana Islands


Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.



0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Shomushon, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (2 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 05 Oct 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07 Oct 2019 18:00 Shomushon Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 18:00 Marasu Northern Mariana Islands  0.1