Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (11 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 204 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 278 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

204 km/h Current

Up to 8.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 148 220 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 148 1.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 250 800 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 259 6 million No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 278 63.7 million 20 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 204 101 million 8.9 million Japan

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
GREEN
2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
GREEN
3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
GREEN
4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
GREEN
5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.2, 154.1
GREEN
6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, 152.4
GREEN
7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 53000 people no people 14.9, 151.1 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 15.1, 149.5 Guam
GREEN
9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 241 210000 people <1000 people 15.5, 148.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 259 210000 people no people 16.1, 146.7 Guam
GREEN
10 08 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 5 278 210000 people no people 17.2, 144 Guam
GREEN
10 08 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 18.3, 141.8
GREEN
10 09 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people no people 19.5, 140.2
GREEN
10 09 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 250 <1000 people no people 20.9, 139
GREEN
10 10 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 231 48000 people no people 24.1, 136.8 Japan
ORANGE
10 11 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 3 204 100.8 million people 8.9 million people 28.1, 135 Japan
GREEN
10 12 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 33.7, 136.7 Japan
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Japan

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Chubu Japan 5.1 million people
Kinki Japan 22.2 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Kushimoto Wakayama Japan City - 2214 km
Shingu Wakayama Japan City 31000 people 2228 km
Arai Shizuoka Japan City - 2253 km
Tanabe Wakayama Japan City 69000 people 2259 km
Toyohashi Aichi Japan City 370000 people 2266 km
Ise Mie Japan City 96000 people 2268 km
Toyokawa Aichi Japan City 110000 people 2272 km
Toyohama Aichi Japan City - 2281 km
Nishio Aichi Japan City 100000 people 2291 km
Koyasan Wakayama Japan City - 2294 km
Okazaki Aichi Japan City 340000 people 2295 km
Handa Aichi Japan City 110000 people 2299 km
Tsu Mie Japan Major city 160000 people 2300 km
Tokoname Aichi Japan City 49000 people 2302 km
Kariya Aichi Japan City 130000 people 2306 km
Kainan Wakayama Japan City 43000 people 2307 km
Sakurai Nara Japan City 62000 people 2309 km
Nagano Nara Japan City - 2310 km
Suzuka Mie Japan City 180000 people 2310 km
Kashihara Nara Japan City 120000 people 2314 km
Yokkaichi Mie Japan City 290000 people 2319 km
Tondabayashi Osaka Japan City 130000 people 2320 km
Ueno Mie Japan City 60000 people 2321 km
Kokubu Nara Japan City - 2324 km
Izumi Osaka Japan City 180000 people 2325 km
Nara Nara Japan Major city 360000 people 2327 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Kushimoto-Katsuura KUJ unknown 0 2212 km
Nanki Shirahama SHM 105 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 2254 km
6 0 2275 km
Shinodayama 15 0 2326 km
Yao 12 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 2330 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands 67 km
Guguan Island Northern Mariana Islands 161 km
Kushimoto Japan 2214 km
Uraga JPURG Japan 2217 km
Shingu JPSHN Japan 2228 km
Hamamatsu JPHMM Japan 2242 km
Owase JPOWA Japan 2250 km
Tanabe JPTAE Japan 2259 km
Toba JPTOB Japan 2262 km
Toyohashi JPTHS Japan 2263 km
Ise JPISE Japan 2269 km
Atsumi JPATM Japan 2269 km
Gamagori JPGAM Japan 2280 km
Matsuzaka Japan 2286 km
Kinuura JPKNU Japan 2292 km
Tsu JPTSU Japan 2296 km
Kainan JPKAI Japan 2307 km
Yokkaichi JPYKK Japan 2318 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Nanairochosuichi Nanairo Kitayamagawa 1965 2251 km
Kamiji Kamiji Kamijigawa 1972 2257 km
Ikeharako Ikehara Kitayamagawa 1964 2260 km
Sakamotochosuichi Sakamoto Higashinogawa 1962 2261 km
Hattachiike Hattachiike Toyokawa 1966 2264 km
Kazeyachosuichi Kazeya Totsugawa 1960 2269 km
Osugiko Miyagawa Miyagawa 1956 2273 km
Okuiseko Misetani Miyagawa 1966 2273 km
Gokatsuraike Gokatsuraike 1678 2274 km
Asahichosuichi Asahi Asahigawa 1978 2275 km
Komanbachoseichi Komanba Toyokawa 1968 2279 km
Osakochosuichi Osako Kinokawa 1973 2280 km
Nameriko Nameriko Nakamuragawa 1973 2291 km
Futagawa Futagawa Aritagawa 1966 2293 km
Tsuburoko Tsuburo Tsuburogawa 1962 2296 km
Kimigano Kimigano Hatsutematagawa 1971 2297 km
Maeyamaike Maeyama Maeyamakawa 1990 2304 km
Katada Katada Naganogawa 1929 2304 km
1998 2306 km
Shorenjiko Shorenji Shorenjigawa 1970 2306 km
Murooko Murou Udagawa 1973 2307 km
Souriike Souri Shinanogawa 1965 2308 km
Shakujoko Ano Anogawa 1990 2314 km
Takihata Takihata Ishikawa 1981 2315 km
Kasatochoseichi Kasatochoseichi Shiyamagawa 1983 2317 km
Horigo Horigo Horigogawa 1969 2318 km
Midoroike Midoro Hinogkawa 1970 2318 km
Tashiroko Tashiroike Takikawa 1895 2319 km
Komyoike Komyoike Makiogawa 1936 2323 km
Sayamaike Sayamaike Nishiyokegawa 2001 2324 km
Tsukigaseko Takayama Nabarigawa 1968 2326 km
Oharachosuichi Ohara Oharagawa 1960 2328 km
Onoike Onoike Makiogawa 1940 2328 km
Yasugawa Yasugawa 2009 2332 km
Ozuchi Ozuchi Yasugawa 1987 2332 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Kisaki, Japan. This height is estimated for 11 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (77 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 07 Oct 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kisaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Tachibandori Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Oryuzako Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Haruguchi Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kaminaka Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Sakai Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takesaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Sumiyoshi Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hirayama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hirota Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hamada Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Osaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Aburatsu Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hayama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takabo Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Miyazaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Niinauri Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Udo Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Meitsu Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Karijuku Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takanabe Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Uwae Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Araki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Uekatsu Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Akatsure Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Urabaru Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Aden Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Somachi Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shitooke Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimonaka Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Mitariyama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Miza Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Noma Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Fukagawa Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hamatsuwaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takenokawa Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Makigawa Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takeyano Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Odaira Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Onasu Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Jusamban Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nijuban Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nakayama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Jurokuban Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kurazami Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nishinoomote Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Masuda Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kerisaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Komakino Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Osaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Yakenota Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Yokoyama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ikenohira Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kunigami Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kunikami Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Anjo Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Tachiyama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ono Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Yanagihara Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Azako Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Guniwa Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Anno Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Minato Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Iseki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shoiiura Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ushino Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimo-Nishime Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nishino Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Miyanoura Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nakamura Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimo-Tashima Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ambo Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Funayuki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Higashi Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Igatan Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Tomai Japan  0.1