Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
GDACS
Impact Single TC
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.4 m (12 Oct 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 185 km/h 1.4 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 278 km/h 1.4 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

185 km/h Current Max.

Up to 39.8 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 148 220 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 148 1.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 250 800 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 259 6 million No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 278 63.7 million 20 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 204 101 million 8.9 million Japan
Orange 11 07 Oct 2019 18:00 194 101.5 million 36.8 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Green 12 08 Oct 2019 00:00 269 104.5 million 44.6 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Green 13 08 Oct 2019 06:00 259 111.6 million 49 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 14 08 Oct 2019 12:00 194 112.1 million 51.1 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 15 08 Oct 2019 18:00 194 114 million 49.3 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 16 09 Oct 2019 00:00 194 112.3 million 44.8 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 17 09 Oct 2019 06:00 222 107.7 million 44.8 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Red 18 09 Oct 2019 12:00 222 104.3 million 44.3 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 19 09 Oct 2019 18:00 204 105 million 37.4 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 20 10 Oct 2019 00:00 194 110.6 million 43.9 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Red 21 10 Oct 2019 06:00 213 110.6 million 43.8 million Japan, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 22 10 Oct 2019 12:00 185 108.1 million 39.9 million Japan, Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
GREEN
2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
GREEN
3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
GREEN
4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
GREEN
5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.2, 154.1
GREEN
6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, 152.4
GREEN
7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 53000 people no people 14.9, 151.1 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 15.1, 149.5 Guam
GREEN
9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 241 210000 people <1000 people 15.5, 148.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 259 210000 people no people 16.1, 146.7 Guam
GREEN
11 07 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 5 259 210000 people no people 16.5, 145 Guam
GREEN
12 08 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 250 210000 people no people 16.9, 143.7 Guam
GREEN
13 08 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 250 52000 people no people 17.7, 142.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
14 08 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 250 <1000 people no people 18.5, 141.8
GREEN
15 08 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people no people 19.2, 140.8
GREEN
16 09 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people no people 19.8, 140.3
GREEN
17 09 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people no people 20.7, 139.9
GREEN
18 09 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 259 1000 people no people 21.2, 139.6
GREEN
19 09 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 5 259 2700 people no people 22, 139.8
GREEN
20 10 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 5 259 2700 people <1000 people 23.2, 139.8
GREEN
21 10 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 5 259 2700 people no people 24.4, 139.4
GREEN
22 10 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 241 2700 people no people 25.3, 139
GREEN
22 11 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 231 53000 people no people 27.3, 138 Japan
GREEN
22 11 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 213 88.3 million people no people 29.3, 137.2 Japan
ORANGE
22 12 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 3 185 103 million people 6.3 million people 31.7, 137.3 Japan
GREEN
22 12 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 2 157 103.8 million people 39.5 million people 34.7, 139 Japan
GREEN
22 13 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 43.1, 152.1
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Japan
Northern Mariana Is.

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Chubu Japan 5.1 million people
Kanto Japan 38.5 million people
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Matsuzaki Shizuoka Japan City -
Kakeoawa Shizuoka Japan City -
Shimada Shizuoka Japan City 75000 people
Yaizu Shizuoka Japan City 110000 people
Fujieda Shizuoka Japan City 130000 people
Ito Shizuoka Japan City 71000 people
Shizuoka Shizuoka Japan Major city 700000 people
Chikura Chiba Japan City -
Tateyama Chiba Japan City 49000 people
Atami Shizuoka Japan City 40000 people
Numazu Shizuoka Japan City 200000 people
Mishima Shizuoka Japan City 110000 people
Yoshiwara Shizuoka Japan City -
Fujinomiya Shizuoka Japan City 110000 people
Odawara Kanagawa Japan City 190000 people
Yokosuka Kanagawa Japan City 420000 people
Ohara Chiba Japan City 19000 people
Kamakura Kanagawa Japan City 160000 people
Hiratsuka Kanagawa Japan City 250000 people
Fujisawa Kanagawa Japan City 390000 people
Chigasaki Kanagawa Japan City 230000 people
Isehara Kanagawa Japan City 100000 people
Kisarazu Chiba Japan City 120000 people
Atsugi Kanagawa Japan City 220000 people
Yokohama Kanagawa Japan Major city 3.5 million people
Mobara Chiba Japan City 95000 people
Fuji-yoshida Yamanashi Japan City -
Kawasaki Kanagawa Japan Major city 1.2 million people
Katakai Chiba Japan City -
Chiba Chiba Japan Major city 910000 people
Chofu Tokyo Japan City 200000 people
Hachioji Tokyo Japan City 530000 people
Naruto Chiba Japan City 22000 people
Tokyo Tokyo Japan Capital 8.1 million people
Tachikawa Tokyo Japan City 170000 people
Funabashi Chiba Japan City 560000 people
Kodaira Tokyo Japan City 180000 people
Ichikawa Chiba Japan City 450000 people
Sakura Chiba Japan City 180000 people
Kamagaya Chiba Japan City 100000 people
Matsudo Chiba Japan City 460000 people
Narita Chiba Japan City 100000 people
Tako Chiba Japan City -
Choshi Chiba Japan City 83000 people
Hanno Saitama Japan City 82000 people
Abiko Chiba Japan City 120000 people
Kawagoe Saitama Japan City 330000 people
Omiya Saitama Japan City 440000 people
Omigawa Chiba Japan City 25000 people
Sakado Saitama Japan City 95000 people
Noda Chiba Japan City 110000 people
Tsukuba Ibaraki Japan City 170000 people
Shimodate Ibaraki Japan City 63000 people
Mito Ibaraki Japan Major city 240000 people
Kuji Ibaraki Japan City 35000 people
Hitachi Ibaraki Japan City 180000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Iwo To (Iwo Jima) IWO 113 Mil. Paved Yes 8700
Miyake Jima MYE 20 Civ. Paved Yes 3900
29 0
Oshima OIM 40 Civ. Paved Yes 3900
Shizuhama 7 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
Tateyama 3 0
Fuji 686 0
Kisarazu 3 Mil. Paved Yes 6000
Nashigahara 1001 0
Atsugi NJA 62 Mil. Paved Yes 7900
Yokohama YOK unknown 0
Katsner AAF 109 Civ. Paved No 1900
Tokyo Haneda International HND 7 Civ. Paved Yes 9800
Chofu 41 Civ. Paved No 3200
Shimoshizu 30 0
Tachikawa 95 0
Yokota AFB OKO 139 Mil. Paved Yes 11000
Tokyo Narita International NRT 42 Civ. Paved Yes 13100
Shimofusa 30 Civ. Paved Yes 7300
Iruma 91 Mil. Paved Yes 6500
Ryugasaki South 2 0
Ryugasaki 2 0
Honda 12 0
Chiba-ken 19 0
26 0
Hyakuri 32 Mil. Paved Yes 8800
Nikko 18 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Iwo Jima Japan
Minami Lo Japan
Mikura Japan
Miyake Japan
Kozu Island Japan
Nii Japan
Omaezaki JPOMZ Japan
Shimoda JPSMD Japan
Hamamatsu JPHMM Japan
Oshima JPOSM Japan
Shimizu JPSMZ Japan
Tateyama JPTTY Japan
Numazu JPNUM Japan
Tagonour JPTGO Japan
Katsuura Ko Japan
Kurihama JPKRH Japan
Yokosuka JPYOS Japan
Neghisi JPNGI Japan
Kisarazu JPKZU Japan
Yokohama JPYOK Japan
Guguan Island Northern Mariana Islands
Kawasaki JPKWS Japan
Goi JPGOI Japan
Chiba JPCHB Japan
Anegasaki JPANE Japan
Ogasawara JPOGA Japan
Katunan Ko Japan
Tokyo JPTYO Japan
Choshi JPCHO Japan
Kashima JPKSM Japan
Hitachi JPHTC Japan
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Matsukawako Okuno Itookawa 1989
Sasama Sasamagawa Sasamagawa 1960
Sakuma Sakuma Okuzuregawa 1990
Ikawako Ikawa Oigawa 1957
Kameyamako Kameyama Obitsugawa 1980
Iizumishusuizeki Iizumishusuizeki Sakawagawa 1973
Tenshiko Kakimoto Sanogawa 1952
Kori Kori Korigawa 1972
Takatakiko Takataki Yorogawa 1990
Tanzawako Miho Kawauchigawa 1978
Yamakura Yamakura Yamakuragawa 1964
Miyagaseko Miyagase Nakatsugawa 2001
Tsukuiko Shiroyama Sagamigawa 1964
Sagamiko Sagami Sagamigawa 1947
Ono Ono Yatagawa 1914
Tamako Murayamakami Tamagawa 1924
Tamako Murayamashimo Tamagawa 2008
Sayamako Yamaguchi Tamagawa 2002
Miyazawako Miyazawatameike Koazegawa 1941
Kasumigaura Kasumigaura-Kaihatsu Tonegawa 1995
Miyukiko Gongendochosetsuchi Nakagawa 1991
Jajanboike Kozogawa Kozogawa 1985

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.7m in Tokyo, Japan. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2019 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (1610 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 31 of 12 Oct 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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