Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (07 Oct 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 148 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 278 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 48000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 148 220 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
GREEN
2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
GREEN
3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
GREEN
4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
GREEN
5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.2, 154.1
GREEN
5 06 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 no people 53000 people 14.5, 151.1 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
5 07 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 1 148 48000 people 220000 people 15.2, 148 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
5 07 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 2 176 no people 220000 people 16.1, 145 Guam
GREEN
5 08 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 3 204 no people 51000 people 17, 142.3 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
5 09 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 18.9, 138.5
GREEN
5 10 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 241 no people 2100 people 21.2, 135.9
GREEN
5 11 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 24.2, 133.1
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.

Provinces

Region Province Country
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Saipan Northern Mariana Islands Capital 62000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Nikko 18 0
Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700
Commonwealth Health Center 5 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands
Saipan MPSPN Northern Mariana Islands

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Garapan, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2019 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (12 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 06 Oct 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 16:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.1