Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (07 Oct 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 259 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 278 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

259 km/h Current

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 148 220 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 148 1.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 250 800 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 259 6 million No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
GREEN
2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
GREEN
3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
GREEN
4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
GREEN
5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.2, 154.1
GREEN
6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, 152.4
GREEN
7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 53000 people no people 14.9, 151.1 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 15.1, 149.5 Guam
GREEN
8 07 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 222 210000 people no people 15.9, 146.6 Guam
GREEN
8 08 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 250 210000 people no people 16.8, 143.8 Guam
GREEN
8 08 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 17.9, 141.5
GREEN
8 09 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 19.1, 139.7
GREEN
8 10 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 250 2000 people no people 21.6, 136.8
GREEN
8 11 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 231 5.7 million people no people 24.7, 134.3 Japan
GREEN
8 12 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 29, 133
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands 381 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Garapan, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2019 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (15 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 07 Oct 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07 Oct 2019 15:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 15:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 15:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 15:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
11 Oct 2019 00:00 Minami-daito Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 00:00 Minamimura Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 00:00 Kyuto Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 00:00 Kita-daito Japan  0.1
07 Oct 2019 15:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 15:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 15:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 15:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 15:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 15:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 15:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1