Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for DELTA-20 in United States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands from 04 Oct 2020 21:00 UTC to 05 Oct 2020 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for DELTA-20

in United States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DELTA-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	United States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands
Exposed population	1.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1 m (09 Oct 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 09 Oct 2020 18:00 - 10 Oct 2020 18:00 in United States

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	194 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	231 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

194 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	04 Oct 2020 21:00	157	2.3 million	No people	Cayman Islands, Cuba, United States
2	05 Oct 2020 03:00	167	4.3 million	940 thousand	Cuba, United States
3	05 Oct 2020 09:00	167	5.2 million	1.4 million	United States
4	05 Oct 2020 15:00	167	6.2 million	1.8 million	United States
5	05 Oct 2020 21:00	194	6.8 million	1.3 million	Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	04 Oct 2020 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.7, -76.6
2	05 Oct 2020 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17, -77.3
3	05 Oct 2020 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17, -78.2
4	05 Oct 2020 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	16.4, -78.6
5	05 Oct 2020 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	16.2, -79.4
5	06 Oct 2020 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	17.1, -80.9
5	06 Oct 2020 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	1.2 million people	19, -83.5
5	07 Oct 2020 06:00	Category 3	194	760000 people	1.7 million people	21, -86.2
5	07 Oct 2020 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	300000 people	22.6, -88.7
5	08 Oct 2020 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	23.7, -90.6
5	08 Oct 2020 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	770000 people	24.8, -91.5
5	09 Oct 2020 18:00	Category 2	157	570000 people	5.1 million people	28.5, -91.5
5	10 Oct 2020 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	33, -89	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.