Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHALANE-20
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Botswana
28 Dec 2020 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone CHALANE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Botswana
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 111 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (30 Dec 07:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
    Landfall between
    29 Dec 2020 18:00 - 30 Dec 2020 06:00
    in Mozambique

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 102 km/h 1.5 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 111 km/h 1.5 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      102 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 11.6 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 24 Dec 2020 18:00 93 9.3 million No people Madagascar
        Green 2 25 Dec 2020 06:00 83 3.6 million No people Madagascar
        Green 3 25 Dec 2020 18:00 83 5.4 million No people Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
        Green 4 26 Dec 2020 06:00 83 5.5 million No people Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
        Green 5 26 Dec 2020 18:00 83 8.8 million No people Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana
        Green 6 27 Dec 2020 06:00 93 10.9 million No people Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
        Orange 7 27 Dec 2020 18:00 120 11.5 million 100 thousand Mozambique
        Orange 8 28 Dec 2020 06:00 120 11.3 million 560 thousand Mozambique, Zimbabwe
        Green 9 28 Dec 2020 18:00 102 11.6 million No people Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 24 Dec 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.8, 57.4
          GREEN
          		 2 25 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.9, 55.6
          GREEN
          		 3 25 Dec 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -16.2, 53.7
          GREEN
          		 4 26 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 210000 people -16.1, 52.4
          GREEN
          		 5 26 Dec 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 6.7 million people -17.6, 49.7
          GREEN
          		 6 27 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people -18.1, 47.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 7 27 Dec 2020 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 140000 people -19.2, 45.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 28 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -20, 43.7
          GREEN
          		 9 28 Dec 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -20, 41.6
          GREEN
          		 9 29 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -19.7, 39.8
          GREEN
          		 9 29 Dec 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.1 million people -19.6, 37.2
          GREEN
          		 9 30 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 3.5 million people -19.8, 35.1 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 9 30 Dec 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 2.9 million people -19.8, 31.7 Zimbabwe
          GREEN
          		 9 31 Dec 2020 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people -20.3, 26.3 Botswana
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar
          Mozambique
          Zimbabwe
          Botswana

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Mahajanga Madagascar
          Zambezia Mozambique
          Antananarivo Madagascar
          Sofala Mozambique
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Manica Mozambique
          Manicaland Zimbabwe
          Antsiranana Madagascar
          Masvingo Zimbabwe
          Midlands Zimbabwe
          Matabeleland South Zimbabwe
          Matabeleland North Zimbabwe
          Central Botswana
          North-East Botswana

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Antananarivo Antananarivo Madagascar Capital 1.4 million people
          Moramanga Toamasina Madagascar City 29000 people
          Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
          Chimoio Manica Mozambique City 260000 people
          Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -
          Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
          Masvingo Masvingo Zimbabwe City 76000 people
          Zvishavane Midlands Zimbabwe City 35000 people
          Gweru Midlands Zimbabwe City 150000 people
          Bulawayo Matabeleland North Zimbabwe Major city 690000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Antananarivo Ivato TNR 1279 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
          Andriamena WAD unknown 0
          Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
          Ambatondrazaka WAM 766 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Chimoio VPY 686 Civ. Paved No 7800
          Sainte Marie SMS 2 Civ. Paved No 3300
          Chipinge CHJ unknown 0
          Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Masvingo MVZ 1096 Civ. Paved Yes 5600
          Zvishavane 918 Priv. Paved No 3900
          Thornhill GWE 1426 Mil. Paved No 8600
          Bulawayo BUQ 1331 Civ. Paved Yes 8400
          Nata 902 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
          Sua Pan 910 Priv. Paved No 5300

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Beira MZBEW Mozambique
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Fenerive Madagascar
          Port Sainte Marie Madagascar
          Saint Mary Island Madagascar
          Mananara MGWMR Madagascar

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Bue Maria Pungoe n/a
          Antanifotsy Antanifotsy 1958
          Sahamaloto Sahamaloto 1958
          Revue Chicamba Real Revue 1959
          Bangazaan Buzi 1987
          Ratelshoek Chibudzana 1985
          Ruti Nyazvidzi 1976
          Siya Turgwe 1976
          Nyatare Nyatare 1985
          Kyle Kyle Mutirikwi 1960
          Driefontein Shashe n/a
          Mushandike Mushandike n/a
          Mbindangombe Turgwana 1988
          Umshandige Umshandige 1938
          Mabgwe Matemba Mabgwe 1967
          Gwenoro Runde 1958
          Amapongokwe Mapongokwe 1980
          Palawan Ngezi 1979
          Anchor Yeast Ngamo 1975
          Mchingwe n/a
          Tiyabenzi Shangani 1972
          Cunningham Insiza Insiza 1976
          Rixon Insiza 1968
          Inyankuni Inyankuni 1972
          Ncema Ncema 1943
          Upper Ncema Ncema 1973
          Umzingwane Umzingwane 1958
          Ngwenya n/a
          Fundisi Koce n/a
          Pampoenpoort Koce 1970
          Upper Umgusa Umgusa 1947
          Lower Umgusa Umgusa 1936
          Matopos Maleme 1901
          Khami Khami 1928
          Bonisa Mpopoma n/a
          Mananda Nata 1967
          Umhlangwa Umhlangwa 1971
          Questeds Tegwani n/a
          Maitengwe n/a
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          1.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.5m in Nhangau, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 30 Dec 2020 07:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (191 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 28 Dec 2020 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          30 Dec 2020 07:00 Nhangau Mozambique  1.5
          30 Dec 2020 07:00 Damiao Mozambique  1.5
          30 Dec 2020 07:00 Chamba Mozambique  1.5
          30 Dec 2020 07:00 Beira Mozambique  1.5
          30 Dec 2020 07:00 Manica Mozambique  1.4
          30 Dec 2020 07:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.2
          30 Dec 2020 06:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.1
          30 Dec 2020 06:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.9
          30 Dec 2020 08:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.8
          30 Dec 2020 04:00 Tama Mozambique  0.5
          30 Dec 2020 03:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.4
          28 Dec 2020 02:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.4
          28 Dec 2020 01:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.4
          28 Dec 2020 01:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.3
          28 Dec 2020 02:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.3
          28 Dec 2020 01:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.3
          28 Dec 2020 02:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.3
          26 Dec 2020 07:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.3
          26 Dec 2020 07:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.3
          26 Dec 2020 07:00 Antsisikala Madagascar  0.3
          28 Dec 2020 02:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.3
          25 Dec 2020 13:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.3
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
          30 Dec 2020 00:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.3
          29 Dec 2020 06:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
          28 Dec 2020 01:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.3
          30 Dec 2020 02:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.3
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Amado Mozambique  0.3
          30 Dec 2020 01:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
          26 Dec 2020 12:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 08:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.2
          28 Dec 2020 07:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
          28 Dec 2020 02:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 13:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 13:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 19:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 19:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
          28 Dec 2020 07:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.2
          30 Dec 2020 01:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
          28 Dec 2020 09:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
          28 Dec 2020 09:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
          28 Dec 2020 09:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          28 Dec 2020 07:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 06:00 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 06:00 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 06:00 Ambodizaotra Madagascar  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 06:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 06:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 06:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 06:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 17:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 09:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 20:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 20:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
          30 Dec 2020 07:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 17:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 16:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 16:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 17:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 13:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 06:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 06:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
          28 Dec 2020 09:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 06:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 09:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
          30 Dec 2020 07:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 10:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 10:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 13:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 19:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 07:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 09:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 09:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 09:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 09:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 07:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 07:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 08:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 18:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 21:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 06:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
          30 Dec 2020 07:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 20:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
          28 Dec 2020 05:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
          28 Dec 2020 05:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 08:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 07:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.1
          28 Dec 2020 12:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 20:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 17:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 06:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 07:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 21:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 11:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 17:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 17:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 06:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
          28 Dec 2020 11:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 06:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 08:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 18:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 18:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 08:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
          28 Dec 2020 07:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 08:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
          30 Dec 2020 08:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 18:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 06:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 06:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 08:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 08:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 21:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 21:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 07:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 10:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 09:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 06:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
          25 Dec 2020 20:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 19:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1