Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
19 Jan 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
    Exposed population 1 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (22 Jan 09:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Mozambique)
    Landfall between
    19 Jan 2021 06:00 - 19 Jan 2021 18:00
    in Madagascar

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 130 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 139 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      130 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 770000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 102 3.1 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 111 3.2 million No people Madagascar
        Green 3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 111 5.7 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
        Green 4 18 Jan 2021 18:00 111 5.7 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
        Orange 5 19 Jan 2021 06:00 130 5.7 million 770 thousand Mozambique

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -12.6, 62.1
          GREEN
          		 2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -13.2, 59.6
          GREEN
          		 3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.7, 56.6
          GREEN
          		 4 18 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 250000 people -14.1, 53
          GREEN
          		 5 19 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1000000 people -14.5, 51.7
          GREEN
          		 5 19 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.6 million people -14.9, 50.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 20 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.1 million people -15.4, 48.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 20 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 640000 people -16.2, 46.3 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 21 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 320000 people -17.3, 44.3 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 22 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 570000 people -19.2, 40.8
          ORANGE
          		 5 23 Jan 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 770000 people 2.9 million people -21.4, 37.2
          GREEN
          		 5 24 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -23.6, 34.5 Mozambique
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mozambique

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Inhambane Mozambique
          Gaza Mozambique

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Maxixe Mozambique City 120000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Vilanculas Mozambique
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2021 09:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (191 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 19 Jan 2021 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          22 Jan 2021 09:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2021 11:00 Amado Mozambique  0.4
          22 Jan 2021 01:00 Baly Madagascar  0.4
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 14:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 14:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 14:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 14:00 Beira Mozambique  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 09:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 09:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 11:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 19:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 05:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 12:00 Tama Mozambique  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 12:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 11:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 05:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 13:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 19:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 07:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 19:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
          19 Jan 2021 21:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
          19 Jan 2021 16:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
          19 Jan 2021 16:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
          21 Jan 2021 09:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 05:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 13:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.3
          22 Jan 2021 07:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 04:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 04:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 04:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 06:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 11:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 07:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 07:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 07:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 07:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 11:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 11:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 03:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 12:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 11:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 11:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 11:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 10:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 09:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 11:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 10:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 07:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 10:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 10:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 10:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 14:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Amborimalana Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Antalaha Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 06:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 14:00 Manica Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 10:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 14:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 15:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 20:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 14:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 07:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 07:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 15:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 15:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 15:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 15:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 20:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 03:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 03:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 03:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 03:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 01:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 02:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 20:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 10:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 05:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 02:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Ambinany Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 02:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 20:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
          22 Jan 2021 02:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 10:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 17:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 22:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2021 22:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
          19 Jan 2021 16:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2021 15:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 07:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 23:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 14:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2021 16:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
          23 Jan 2021 06:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Ampaha Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2021 13:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 11:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 10:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 14:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 15:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 20:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
          18 Jan 2021 06:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 19:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 00:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 00:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 18:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 09:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 17:00 Napito Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2021 16:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 16:00 Farahalana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 16:00 Antohamaro Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 17:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
          18 Jan 2021 08:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 16:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Ambodipont-Sahana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 17:00 Andrapengy Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2021 14:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2021 16:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2021 16:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 07:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 19:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2021 19:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2021 08:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2021 14:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1